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2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Istabraq

Istabraq

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TO CLOSE BY NOON ON JANUARY 24th with supplementary entries on March 8th
CHELTENHAM Tuesday, March 14th THE SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE RACE (CLASS 1) (Grade 1) (GBB RACE) TOTAL RACE VALUE ?135,000 Distributed in accordance with the Stakes and Prize Money Code ?
75,964 to the winning horse
The second to receive ?28,620
the third ?14,323
the fourth ?7,155
the ffth ?3,591
he sixth ?1,795
the seventh ?891
the eighth ?459
for novice four yrs old and upwards

TWO MILES ABOUT HALF A FURLONG (2m 87yds)
Enter by noon, January 24th and pay ?168 stake Scratch by noon, February 14th or pay ?339
Confrm by noon, March 8th and pay ?168
Supplementary Entry by noon, March 8th and pay ?4,884 stake
Declare by 10.00 a.m

March 12th Weights: 4-y-o..........10st 11lb;
5-y-o and up..............................11st 7lb
Fillies and mares allowed............7lb
 
Last edited:
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FV 150s, 80s dream seems over. Maybe it's not but it certainly feels like it.
 


Sunday 5th Feb 2023
 
Gavin Lynch put this up today...

Facile Vega yesterday was 4 seconds (16L) quicker than State Man to the 3rd.
24L quicker to the 4th, 5th & 6th and 28L quicker to the 7th.

60L in a furlong.

Novice hurdle finished 16L ahead (taken from the starter).

Both races the same time from the last which is interesting​.

can some one put this into layman's terms for me please?!?!?
 
Clinker said:
Gavin Lynch put this up today...

Facile Vega yesterday was 4 seconds (16L) quicker than State Man to the 3rd.
24L quicker to the 4th, 5th & 6th and 28L quicker to the 7th.

60L in a furlong.

Novice hurdle finished 16L ahead (taken from the starter).

Both races the same time from the last which is interesting​.

can some one put this into layman's terms for me please?!?!?
Click to expand...

The Champion Hurdle was slowly run. The novice hurdle was suicidal. But Danny 'Tick Tock' Mullins has a clock like no other and took riding efficiently to a new level. And Il Etait Temps must be good.
 
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Exar Essay said:
The Champion Hurdle was slowly run. The novice hurdle was suicidal. But Danny 'Tick Tock' Mullins has a clock like no other and took riding efficiently to a new level. And Il Etait Temps must be good.
Click to expand...

Thank you. Does that mean FV at 4s is a good bet still then due to previous hype on him, and just needs a better ride to see success? Or do we think we have seen the undoing of him?
 
Clinker said:
Thank you. Does that mean FV at 4s is a good bet still then due to previous hype on him, and just needs a better ride to see success? Or do we think we have seen the undoing of him?
Click to expand...

I don't think any of us can answer that. I was creating a book for the race and it had a massive Facile Vega shaped hole in it so I am definitely betting him. But whether or not he is a good bet is up to you. He wouldn't be as bad surely next time out, but what's to say he won't get lit up again? I assume High Definition will be running so it's a possibility. One thing, I can't see him getting any bigger unless there's an injury concern or something else amiss.
 
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Exar Essay said:
I don't think any of us can answer that. I was creating a book for the race and it had a massive Facile Vega shaped hole in it so I am definitely betting him. But whether or not he is a good bet is up to you. He wouldn't be as bad surely next time out, but what's to say he won't get lit up again? I assume High Definition will be running so it's a possibility. One thing, I can't see him getting any bigger unless there's an injury concern or something else amiss.
Click to expand...

Thank you, and truly recognise each and every bet is a personal choice. To me he's had one bad race, doesn't make him a bad horse. We will see.....
 
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I think wherever High Definition lines up in the Supreme , F.V will be as far away from him as possible.
 
BigChaang said:
I think wherever High Definition lines up in the Supreme , F.V will be as far away from him as possible.
Click to expand...

Perhaps they'll run a pacemaker for vega to track high definition? Parmenion perhaps
 
This is the race I have the highest number of bets for, but have the least idea of what wins. A jumble
 
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Zachx02 said:
Perhaps they'll run a pacemaker for vega to track high definition? Parmenion perhaps
Click to expand...

Danny on Gaelic Warrior leading from the front to pacemake for FV and try to win himself
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Champ Kiely came back down in trip here and Facile Vega potentially went out in trip. The supreme is going to be run at a mad pace whatever happens and I still think even if FV sits in just behind he'll have trouble quickening again off a mad pace. Think the mid trip would suit him more imo.
 
The 2m hasn’t bothered facile vega to date. One run shouldn’t change minds on that yet surely. Jockey messed up but he’s still a top jockey and I’m Co doesn’t it’ll be lesson learned for March.
 
How I think it could go for the Mullins battalion currently is:

Supreme
Facile Vega (Paul) (Needs to be nestled in behind, these was evident after the race at Christmas where he was forced to make his own running after out outjumping IET and Danny restraining IET to make him go past)
Gaelic Warrior (Danny maybe) (Can bowl out in front in this)
Il Et Temps (Danny maybe)

Ballymore
IEP (Paul)
Champ Kiely (Danny)
 
Il Etait Temps with the RPR novice hurdle performance of the season - 158. Having consulted Sax's Race Planning thread, I can't find a Supreme winner in the last 10 years with a better RPR pre-race. My Tent Or Yours finished second in the Supreme and scored a 163 in that mammoth Betfair Hurdle win.
 
Exar Essay said:
Il Etait Temps with the RPR novice hurdle performance of the season - 158. Having consulted Sax's Race Planning thread, I can't find a Supreme winner in the last 10 years with a better RPR pre-race. My Tent Or Yours finished second in the Supreme and scored a 163 in that mammoth Betfair Hurdle win.
Click to expand...

He was only about 6-8 lengths off the mad gallop and cruised up and kicked away.
One of the RPRs id concur with for sure.
Supreme should suit and I can’t see him being beaten unless there’s no pace.
 
BigChaang said:
I think wherever High Definition lines up in the Supreme , F.V will be as far away from him as possible.
Click to expand...

Given how clumsy High Definition is everyone would want to be as far away from him as possible.
 
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