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2023 Mares Novice Hurdle

Luccia's owner is keen to run in the Supreme :disgust:

"Nicky will probably ask me about the Supreme and the Dawn Run and my reply would be that it's an owner's dream to get into the Supreme and it's an opportunity that would be sad to lose.

"Having said that, it would be better to win a slightly easier race, which I think the Dawn Run is, than coming third or fourth in the Supreme.

"Those are my thoughts and I'll probably leave the decision to Nicky, although it's possibly unlikely I ever get another chance in the Supreme, so it would be a shame not to run.

"If Nicky thinks we've a much better chance in the mares' novice hurdle, we'd probably run in that, but if she wins by 17 lengths on Saturday I'm sure Nicky will edge towards the Supreme! A lot will depend on what happens."
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As a big winner for me in the Mares Novice, I'm hoping Hendo sees the sense in the easier race!
 
YoungHustler said:
Luccia's owner is keen to run in the Supreme :disgust:

"Nicky will probably ask me about the Supreme and the Dawn Run and my reply would be that it's an owner's dream to get into the Supreme and it's an opportunity that would be sad to lose.

"Having said that, it would be better to win a slightly easier race, which I think the Dawn Run is, than coming third or fourth in the Supreme.

"Those are my thoughts and I'll probably leave the decision to Nicky, although it's possibly unlikely I ever get another chance in the Supreme, so it would be a shame not to run.

"If Nicky thinks we've a much better chance in the mares' novice hurdle, we'd probably run in that, but if she wins by 17 lengths on Saturday I'm sure Nicky will edge towards the Supreme! A lot will depend on what happens."
​
As a big winner for me in the Mares Novice, I'm hoping Hendo sees the sense in the easier race!
Click to expand...

Seems like the owners up for it. :encouragement:
Skybet are 18-1 w/o Vega for Supreme if anyone wants cover.
Nicky would want a runner with a chance in the supreme over and above a Mares Novice Favourite I reckon. So given Jet Powered disappointing and the rest of his looking shit.
However, he may simply want to swerve Facile Vega also.

Go for the easier race :sorrow::mad::stupid:
 
She was one of the first I looked for when Hills went NRNB but the price wasn't the most appealing
Maybe is she wins well and Between Waters wins a maiden well Hendo will have a think about it.
 
Quevega said:
Seems like the owners up for it. :encouragement:
Skybet are 18-1 w/o Vega for Supreme if anyone wants cover.
Nicky would want a runner with a chance in the supreme over and above a Mares Novice Favourite I reckon. So given Jet Powered disappointing and the rest of his looking shit.
However, he may simply want to swerve Facile Vega also.

Go for the easier race :sorrow::mad::stupid:
Click to expand...

Enter in both and see how the situation is with both races much nearer the time.
Although Tolworth may well tell them anyway
 
Quevega said:
Seems like the owners up for it. :encouragement:
Skybet are 18-1 w/o Vega for Supreme if anyone wants cover.
Nicky would want a runner with a chance in the supreme over and above a Mares Novice Favourite I reckon. So given Jet Powered disappointing and the rest of his looking shit.
However, he may simply want to swerve Facile Vega also.

Go for the easier race :sorrow::mad::stupid:
Click to expand...

Going back on our earlier back and forth Q you were correct on the owners having high ambitions despite being a smaller outfit does swing back around is a 3rd or 4th better than a win in the mares, my wallet would much or prefer she stuck to her sex but equally I’d love to see her run away with her next run and take on FV. Nicky does have several mares as options and very little 2m geldings worth talking about.

a win Tolworth by x lengths + supreme win would be something I’d like to do but I’m aware those more experienced have highlighted a couple times this is how you lose an a/c…

a double of Luccia w/o FV & MNH Winner would be a nice play as she holds that market right now
 
Really don’t want Luccia going Supreme, have the 40s, already sweating on GDM switching from NHC.

Ante Post betting is great when it all clicks, but …….

Taking a bit of the 18s without FV, thanks for pointing out.
 
If she wins the Tolworth by 17 lengths then she'll definitely go Supreme ! CH only won by 12 in a much, much weaker race last season. Winning by that amount I'd say she'd deserve to go fav over Facile. Not going to happen though so I'll shut up. She'll probably get stuffed out of sight now and not go to the Fez at all :biggrin-new:

​​​​​​
 
Tolworth betting per Betfair:

Luccia Evens Authorised Speed 3/1
Tahmuras 3/1
Arctic Bresil 7/1 (unlikely to run based on that)
12/1 bar

Surprised how short she is for it.
 
Luccia to win the Tolworth by 17 lengths + win the Supreme will be some bet
 
If beating that Tolworth field gets them giddy about the Supreme, then good luck to them (shouldn't have the mares novice hurdle as an option anyway :devilish:)

......but would need to win it by 17L and even then it'll be Metier vs Appreciate It levels of 'I don't care' about it :rolleyes: :devilish:



None of those horses in the Tolworth (I'm excluding Arctic Bresil as surely not running?) ... would be fav for the Mares Hurdle if they could run in it off level weights would they? I can't see anything that'd run better than Ashroe Diamond so far ..




I applaud the angle though, looking at the Without FV market in light of her being ante post fav for the Tolworth is clever :encouragement:



Just off on a slight tangent, how many Mares Novice Hurdle winners do we think would have won/placed in that years Supreme?

Only one at the time I reckon people would have been strong on was Laurina being potentially better than Summerville Boy in 2018?

Even if she's the best UK novice mare though, which winning the Tolworth would point towards, is that going to be good enough to win the Mares Hurdle, let alone the Supreme?

I hope it is :applouse:
 
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Kevloaf said:
If beating that Tolworth field gets them giddy about the Supreme, then good luck to them (shouldn't have the mares novice hurdle as an option anyway :devilish:)

......but would need to win it by 17L and even then it'll be Metier vs Appreciate It levels of 'I don't care' about it :rolleyes: :devilish:



None of those horses in the Tolworth (I'm excluding Arctic Bresil as surely not running?) ... would be fav for the Mares Hurdle if they could run in it off level weights would they? I can't see anything that'd run better than Ashroe Diamond so far ..




I applaud the angle though, looking at the Without FV market in light of her being ante post fav for the Tolworth is clever :encouragement:



Just off on a slight tangent, how many Mares Novice Hurdle winners do we think would have won/placed in that years Supreme?

Only one at the time I reckon people would have been strong on was Laurina being potentially better than Summerville Boy in 2018?

Even if she's the best UK novice mare though, which winning the Tolworth would point towards, is that going to be good enough to win the Mares Hurdle, let alone the Supreme?

I hope it is :applouse:
Click to expand...

I’d fancy Authorised Speed of levels in the Mares Novice Kev
 
Morley Street said:
I’d fancy Authorised Speed of levels in the Mares Novice Kev
Click to expand...

:highly_amused: - the off levels was more of a rib :devilish:

Still, if I felt strongly about that, I'd be backing Authorised Speed to beat her in the Tolworth at the current prices
 
Kevloaf said:
I can't see anything that'd run better than Ashroe Diamond so far ..


:
Click to expand...

But don't you have Luccia for a very decent return if she wins the Mares Novice and nothing for an Ashroe Diamond win? Or have you been trying to get AD on board but just not been successful yet?
 
Mentioned it the other day
some of these trainers are slow learners
stuck in their ways.
The allowance is a serious edge.
mares weren’t campaigned towards Cheltenham for a long time.
so the brought in the mares hurdle.
took them a while to run them against boys and even that was by default. But had great success.
they then introduced a mares novice race because horses like quevega Annie power BDD were just going for the mares.
now there’s a fucking mares chase the novice mares head towards that.
no need anymore for the mares races as surely the penny has dropped
mares can compete and when you have a good one the 7lb is of serious value.
F**k the mares.
Racing is run by idiots and most trainers have their heads up their arse.
except emmet - he’s modern
 
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