2023 Mares Novice Hurdle

[FinalFurlong91]

It was the best race we've seen this season by far FF wasn't it ? Name a better race. Just because there was little between them doesn't mean it was poor . A penalty hasn't stopped others winning at the Fez. She's the one to beat without doubt based on her performances this season .

She might not even beat the ones close in behind her giving them 5lb

limini and laurina both won the solerina and gave away the 5lb penalty, but they won far far easier

Lets dance won the nathaniel lacy easily beating kemboy before she gave away the 5lb

I don't think she matches up to those mares

Love envoi managed it in a weak renewal last year as well and if the race cuts up like that one did then maybe AD could win with the 5lb penalty

​​​​​​​Personally I'd be surprised if one of magical zoe, night and day and luccia didn't prove better than the standard ashroe diamond sets come march

​​​​​​​as always it's a game of opinions, be boring if we all agreed

 

[Lobos]

Yep, agreed, game of opinions but she currently sets the standard . Let's see what the rest can do.

 

[Guinness Village]

The best horse won today. The best horse will win in March. She will do so much better in a bigger field at a faster pace. She will travel, and pick them up at the last to win.
we all want a laurina, limini or honeysuckle, but most years we won’t get one. Last year, I was really disappointed with the solerina post race, but time will tell that that was probably a hit race.
we will get some god winners out of this race.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Foxy Girl's form *eyes emoji*

Slightly forgotten about, until next weekend at least :victorious:

 

[DenmanSacre]

Interesting that Davy didn't send Halka on and set a very solid pace throughout the race as Jack and Gordon had alluded to that was the way she needs to be ridden, that 5lb weight swing certainly won't do no harm come the fez, but I feel this year we might just get a turn up. When are entries out for this race? Be good to see whether any dark horses of willie's are in the entries that haven't ran yet, because this lot don't seem to be anything spectacular.

He's bought some nice fillies over the last few months.

When are the entries out?

 

[Irish Rugby]

Of all I've seen for this race and after seeing those today finish close up, it still has to Luccia and Magical Zoe for me. Love these few weeks, I can decide who I want on my side and those I'd rather steer clear of.

 

[charlie]

But she still looks a way ahead of anything else we've seen this season. She's the one to beat without a doubt. Only a few lengths behind Vega. That plenty good enough to win the MNH isn't it?

Way ahead? Did she win by 10L and I missed it? Thats an OTT statement to put it likely off a marginal win vs less experienced mares.

 

[Evesham Road]

Some quite bullish statements flying about here. Of course we want opinions, but mine is that there's nothing obviously standout here. There are different takes on the form but there isn't a single horse which has demolished good fields on multiple occaisions - which is what I'd be looking for as a clear standout. Another clue is the market - the top five in the betting are available at 3s, 4s, 8s, 10s and 10s. Let's also remember that the Mares' Novices Hurdle is a race where different rates of improvement are still very much in play, and thinking back at the history of the race, about half the placed horses have been relative outsiders, and half the favourites have been nowhere.

So, my opinion is that I don't think it's solved, yet!

 

[doctorwu]

Jetara was only 1 1/4L behind her and now gets 5lb for that. Only had 2 runs over hurdles aswell so arguably open to more improvement, she was the must bet at 25/1 that Q highlighted.

Does Ashroe get a 5lb penalty for winning a grade 3???
tia

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

Does Ashroe get a 5lb penalty for winning a grade 3???
tia

Indeed she does. G1/2/3/Listed winners all receive a 5lb penalty.

Penalties, a winner of a Class 2 weight-for-age or Class 1 handicap hurdle race…3lb

Of a Class 1 weight-for-age hurdle race…5lb

 

[doctorwu]

Indeed she does. G1/2/3/Listed winners all receive a 5lb penalty.

Penalties, a winner of a Class 2 weight-for-age or Class 1 handicap hurdle race…3lb

Of a Class 1 weight-for-age hurdle race…5lb

Thanks for that RTC. I always thought they targeted that race as its was a grade3 so no penalty. I stand corrected.

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

Thanks for that RTC. I always thought they targeted that race as its was a grade3 so no penalty. I stand corrected.

Before ADV got injured last year, there was the big discussion on how Brandy Love would easily reverse form in the MNH going left handed and getting 5lbs from ADV.

Tend to agree with the general view on this race so far. Don't think there's much doubt that Ashroe Diamond sets the form standard but is it so strong that you think it's hers to lose? Of course not. I'd like to see Luccia sooner rather than later to be honest...

 

[Lobos]

Princess Zoe...

"We're aiming her at the Mares' Novices' Hurdle but I put her in the Albert Bartlett as well as she has endless stamina. We are keeping our options open."

 

[robith]

If your forced me into a summary

 

[Eggs]

Princess Zoe...

"We're aiming her at the Mares' Novices' Hurdle but I put her in the Albert Bartlett as well as she has endless stamina. We are keeping our options open."

….22-1 win today & MNH with Hills.

 

[Hurricane fly]

She is pretty weak in the market this morning going from odds on to 6/5 region.

However I have dabbled Win Today any race and MNH.

Confident I will end up 5 or 6 in this which is always seems to be the case with this race. Foxy girls form is building up, but that makes Liberty Dances form stronger which makes Magical Zoe's win more impressive.

A tangled web for sure

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Shed be too slow surely for 2m1f

And was regressive on the flat

 

[AaronLad]

Shed be too slow surely for 2m1f

And was regressive on the flat

Why would she be too slow?
she won a g3 over 2miles last April then ran in 5 g1's

look at echoes in rain. Not at her level on the flat but wins over 2 miles over hurdles.

If she takes to hurdles she could end up in next seasons champion hurdle

 

[Birds Nest]

Shed be too slow surely for 2m1f

And was regressive on the flat

Its just an opinion and not an exact science, but generally for me i would think 2ms on the flat would indicate midtrip to 3ms over hurdles. A 10f flat horse would have enough stamina for 2ms over hurdles. So i agree with you on your points. Princess zoe has the stamina for any hurdle race but she would need to have 10f speed too in order to win at the minimium at chelts.

 

[riccirich]

Why would she be too slow?
she won a g3 over 2miles last April then ran in 5 g1's

look at echoes in rain. Not at her level on the flat but wins over 2 miles over hurdles.

If she takes to hurdles she could end up in next seasons champion hurdle

I might be wrong, but don’t flat horses usually need further over jumps than they do on the flat?

since they tend to slow down approaching obstacles, whereas in flat races they just run flat out, I think that leads to them wanting slightly further over jumps, the likes of penhill ran over about 1m 5f on the flat I think but needed 3m over hurdles, I don’t know if that’s the case for them all though.

youd probably be relying on her jumping being perfect to stick to 2m id say, which would be risky with her lack of experience, if it’s a bit sticky then I’d say it could be Bartlett since they’re sure she’d stay.