2023 Browns Advisory Novices Chase (formerly RSA)

[Quevega]

Yeah I think he will just do enough... it's his attitude I like the most.

Knowing a horse will find for pressure is a big, big tick for a festival graded race for moi


TBF I'm sure Spectre has a decent price :eagerness:

It does depend on which horses they find for pressure against though.
In this case it's just Ok.

 

[Rooster Booster]

If it goes soft i’m all over Galia Des Liteaux ew. I’m just debating about whether to play now at 14/1 with 3 places or wait until the day? Will there be enough runners for some bookies to go 4 places on the day? And will her price hold at double figures if soft?

No it won’t…rain forecast = reverse forecast

 

[Quevega]

No it won’t…rain forecast = reverse forecast

If it got really soft, I'd actually fancy Sir Gerhard.

 

[Rooster Booster]

If it got really soft, I'd actually fancy Sir Gerhard.

Now you’re being soft:glee:

 

[Kevloaf]

I can’t totally understand the argument based on SG previous festival form but you can’t judge Gerri based on his form up to this season, it’s blatantly obvious Gordon has been playing the long game with him.

Sir Gerhard bullied horses as a bumper horse he’d remind you of the type of fella that was shaving as a 12 year old schoolboy then he won a poor Ballymore last year running with the choke out all the way, he won’t be able to do that this season.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing or disagreeing with me after reading that :highly_amused:



If Sir Gerhard wasn't a dual festival winner, I wouldn't be backing him at all, not even at twice the price. His chase form alone is nowhere near what I'd want to see.
The fact he is a dual festival winner, means he commands respect...... but it's also the reason I think Gerri is a nap, if SG is Willie's best chance in this, then Elliott is home and hosed.

 

[Always a Claimer]

No it won’t…rain forecast = reverse forecast

Anywhere that does that this early? Good shout. Also just checked prices again, Galia Des Liteaux is 28/1 antepost price vs 14/1 NRNB. 28/1 ew now given the forecast and Skelton slanting for Brown’s certainly seems value.

 

[Kevloaf]

It does depend on which horses they find for pressure against though.
In this case it's just Ok.

Spoilt by Willie / Ruby bridle merchants over the years.


Finding for pressure is without a doubt in my mind a massive positive.

"Always doing enough" I love.... Barters Hill type attitude...

Or Bobs Worth.

I love it. Love Love Love it!



Having to battle even if against lower opposition but finding is a big plus, I'd give Jonbon a tick for it for the first time in his career for example, even though it was against a handicapper...



All relative of course, which I assume is what you're saying.... but I still love it.

 

[SeanRock]

If it got really soft, I'd actually fancy Sir Gerhard.

How many perceived potential Clonsutton Champion Hurdle candidates would be broadly talented enough to be seen as a crack 2 miler or a dour staying chaser that would appreciate a strong gallop on soft going around the most stamina testing track in the country (bar the new course)

 

[Quevega]

How many perceived potential Clonsutton Champion Hurdle candidates would be broadly talented enough to be seen as a crack 2 miler or a dour staying chaser that would appreciate a strong gallop on soft going around the most stamina testing track in the country (bar the new course)

All of them.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Spoilt by Willie / Ruby bridle merchants over the years.


Finding for pressure is without a doubt in my mind a massive positive.

"Always doing enough" I love.... Barters Hill type attitude...

Or Bobs Worth.

I love it. Love Love Love it!



Having to battle even if against lower opposition but finding is a big plus, I'd give Jonbon a tick for it for the first time in his career for example, even though it was against a handicapper...



All relative of course, which I assume is what you're saying.... but I still love it.

He did it in the rossington main too…jockey had to get after him and he definitely responded

 

[SeanRock]

All of them.

Maybe only a young injury free Appreciate It….

 

[SeanRock]

It’s a classic case of a square peg in a round hole for me!

 

[Quevega]

Maybe only a young injury free Appreciate It….

Faugheen
Annie Power
Hurricane Fly

In Sir Gerhards case, it was plenty soft enough when winning a ballymore against stayers. And he ran keen enough.
Definitely stays, it's his recent jumping experience that concerns me. The PTP stuff is moot IMO.

 

[Kevloaf]

The PTP stuff is moot IMO.

I always think about this, when it gets wheeled out as part of a case...

If Mo Farah ran a 100m race, he'd just beat whoever he raced against at that level.

That's how I view PTP's .... it doesn't 'prove' a horse stays 'cos they won a PTP, it just means they're better than whatever shite they were up against.

Usain Bolt would be me over 26 miles ... and 100m. He's a good animal, I'm not. Proves feck all when they actually go on to do what they're supposed to be doing.




PTP "form" is always over played .... it's just there to make some money early on. By the time a horse goes novice chasing it's almost worthless, either over played or moot!



I still had it right with Samcro and his questionable PTP win

 

[SeanRock]

Faugheen
Annie Power
Hurricane Fly

In Sir Gerhards case, it was plenty soft enough when winning a ballymore against stayers. And he ran keen enough.
Definitely stays, it's his recent jumping experience that concerns me. The PTP stuff is moot IMO.

Annie Power was outstayed by More Of That in the Stayers & who was then well accounted for by Blacklion & Shaneshill who never really trained on at the top level, similarly Faugheen was well beaten by the similarly flakey Samcro & Melon in the JLT.

Edit: Just to note calling TSL & Whatdeawant stayers would only be applicable to me in a staying handicap. They are not genuine grade 1 horses imo & judging on Gordon’s opinions of TSL prior to the Drinmore he was similarly uninspired!

 

[Quevega]

Annie Power was outstayed by More Of That in the Stayers & who was then well accounted for by Blacklion & Shaneshill who never really trained on at the top level, similarly Faugheen was well beaten by the similarly flakey Samcro & Melon in the JLT.

Class is class. IMO.
Trips don't matter if you're better than the other horses, in most instances anyhow.
Not all horses win all the time, even the best ones will get beaten.

The examples you've given are not well thought out, and we could go back and forth all night on this.

The point is that a horse of Willie's with proven class is probably more than capable of going close in a standard champion hurdle (saying that in case you cite Constitution Hill):highly_amused:
And also competing in a grade 1 Novice Chase over 3 miles.

Kev's Mo Farah analogy is an extreme one, but the point he is making is clear.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Is it really? A 2x festival winner against 'the real whacker', a veteran thyme hill who won a rubbish Kauto star and was well found out previously, and thunder rock who isnt a g1 horse.

On the day I can see him being a solid 5/2 2nd fav and that would be priced around right behind Gerri, who looks to have a great chance of winning it bar the ground concern.

Yes it's absolutely shocking imo

He's had issues, potentially several of them given he didn't get to the track until the end of january

He's had 1 chase start in a dirt race and didn't jump great

He was talked about as a champion hurdle horse at the start of the season and is now being thrown into this

Hes far from guaranteed to stay, he pulled very hard in the ballymore, which wasn't a vintage renewal

Hed be 12/1+ in a normal renewal, even in a weak renewal like this he should be 8s minimum

so much has to be taken on trust, don't like his profile one bit

 

[SeanRock]

Class is class. IMO.
Trips don't matter if you're better than the other horses, in most instances anyhow.
Not all horses win all the time, even the best ones will get beaten.

The examples you've given are not well thought out, and we could go back and forth all night on this.

The point is that a horse of Willie's with proven class is probably more than capable of going close in a standard champion hurdle (saying that in case you cite Constitution Hill):highly_amused:
And also competing in a grade 1 Novice Chase over 3 miles.

Kev's Mo Farah analogy is an extreme one, but the point he is making is clear.

The point I was making is don’t believe Faugheen or Annie Power could have genuinely won an end to end 3m chase around Cheltenham, a less taxing track would & was obviously a different story. Hurdles & chasing are poles apart in relation to stamina tests when comparing Annie Power too.

 

[Hurricane fly]

If people want to guarantee themselves a stayer who isn't afraid of a battle isn't everyone missing the obvious in Thyme Hill?

A battling 4th in arguably the best ever AB - in my time following atleast
Unbeaten over 3m in chases
Multiple grade 1 winner in both novice and open company over hurdles

 

[charlie]

If people want to guarantee themselves a stayer who isn't afraid of a battle isn't everyone missing the obvious in Thyme Hill?

A battling 4th in arguably the best ever AB - in my time following atleast
Unbeaten over 3m in chases
Multiple grade 1 winner in both novice and open company over hurdles

The bumper, AB and stayers is good festival experience and yes, he's not afraid of a battle, he just rarely comes out on top when he gets in one.

LTO was a piss weak G1 and his jumping prior to that was really poor, after a tidy debut.

I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but he wont be good enough IMO.