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2023 Browns Advisory Novices Chase (formerly RSA)

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EnvoiAlien said:
The more I look at this race the more I'm warming to Thyme Hill,he's had 17 career starts with 14 of those at Grade 1 or 2 level,unplaced only 3 times (once in France,in the spud race when he was short of room late on & at Aintree when he never looked likely to get involved from halfway after a career best run in the stayers hurdle), he's ran at 3 festivals now so has stacks of course experience, hasn't looked the most natural chaser in his first 2 starts but it all seemed to come together in the Kauto Star at kempton, if he can build on that run surely he goes close here,he'd be the horse with the most G1 runs and wins on his CV, of course there's a few things against him if you're a stats kind of punter but for me this doesn't look a vintage renewal at this stage (IE I see no horse here I'm thinking could be a Gold Cup horse next season) and he's long overdue a festival win,it's been 20 years since Hobbs won this with One Knight so it'd be nice to see him win another.
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If he gets in a good jumping rhythm early on he's gerri colombes biggest threat imo

I'd slightly worry about his jumping falling apart if they go a fast pace

But if it holds up he will run well
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
If he gets in a good jumping rhythm early on he's gerri colombes biggest threat imo

I'd slightly worry about his jumping falling apart if they go a fast pace

But if it holds up he will run well
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For sure getting into a good rhythm early will be important to him,I'd be more focussed on that than position if I was TOB as we know the horse finishes his races well enough here so being sat in third or last either wouldn't be a bother as long as the horse is jumping well,I missed out he's versatile regarding ground too which is always one less thing to worry about.
 
Are we talking about thyme hill? Dangerous as a basket full of kittens. Wouldn’t back him with anyone’s money.
 
EnvoiAlien said:
For sure getting into a good rhythm early will be important to him,I'd be more focussed on that than position if I was TOB as we know the horse finishes his races well enough here so being sat in third or last either wouldn't be a bother as long as the horse is jumping well,I missed out he's versatile regarding ground too which is always one less thing to worry about.
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I like how they've kept him fresh for the race.
Left off since December like previous seasons and turn up and go very close in the Spring.
He's very likely to run to 160+ official rating.
I think people are underestimating him, and perhaps forgetting he's back in novice company now and the race does not look as trappy as the Bartlett was that year.

Just that worry about his jumping, and that bad run at Newbury.
 
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Guinness Village said:
Are we talking about thyme hill? Dangerous as a basket full of kittens. Wouldn’t back him with anyone’s money.
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Lol. that pretty much sums up my thoughts on him. If it's a low sun and they doll off every single fence I might consider him for a place.
 
Since we’re on the RSA, has anyone seen any news on whether Thedevilscoachman is likely to come over? I thought I saw a quote suggesting he might stay in Ireland, but I can’t find it now and it’s been bugging me…
 
Guinness Village said:
Are we talking about thyme hill? Dangerous as a basket full of kittens. Wouldn’t back him with anyone’s money.
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Yes the proven grade 1 open company horse in a really bad looking renewal

The Irish have nothing bar gerri colombe really, sir gerhard is short but jumped poorly and has had an awful prep

And the best British horse is thyme hill

The real whacker is 5/1, this is a dog excrement renewal depth wise

​​​​​​​I'd be a tad surprised if one of gerri or thyme hill didn't win

​​​​​​​If his jumping holds up I can't see him out of the 3
 
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Thyme hill is a small horse and on in years. Like the Monty burns of the staying novice division. I appreciate that he’s won a grade 1 uk novice, but just can’t be having him
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Yes the proven grade 1 open company horse in a really bad looking renewal

The Irish have nothing bar gerri colombe really, sir gerhard is short but jumped poorly and has had an awful prep

And the best British horse is thyme hill

The real whacker is 5/1, this is a dog excrement renewal depth wise

​​​​​​​I'd be a tad surprised if one of gerri or thyme hill didn't win

​​​​​​​If his jumping holds up I can't see him out of the 3
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Tend to agree with this. Gerri Colombe is clearly the safe option. Thyme Hill, depends which version turns up. If he jumps like he did on his chase debut, no chance. If he jumps and stays like he did at Kempton in the Kauto, he has a very good chance of winning. I was there that day. Dismissed him entirely. So did the market. But he travelled, jumped, and finished the race like the best animal by quite some way. On ratings he’s the best in the race, isn’t he. I know he’s erratic, but to dismiss him entirely seems a little churlish.
 
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TCH29 said:
Tend to agree with this. Gerri Colombe is clearly the safe option. Thyme Hill, depends which version turns up. If he jumps like he did on his chase debut, no chance. If he jumps and stays like he did at Kempton in the Kauto, he has a very good chance of winning. I was there that day. Dismissed him entirely. So did the market. But he travelled, jumped, and finished the race like the best animal by quite some way. On ratings he’s the best in the race, isn’t he. I know he’s erratic, but to dismiss him entirely seems a little churlish.
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Yeah it is churlish imo.
Hes the class horse in the race and has shown he can jump
well enough on a good day.
Im on GC but I do recognise the threat.

Maybe it’s the time in the build up with churlish posts, just read one on the Ballymore thread saying the fav gets beat more than 10 lengths.
Posts completely dismissing horses with obvious chances?
Got to be nervous pocket talk imo
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
If he gets in a good jumping rhythm early on he's gerri colombes biggest threat imo

I'd slightly worry about his jumping falling apart if they go a fast pace

But if it holds up he will run well
Click to expand...

I'd agree with this and have it between TH and Gerri with a cover on Sir Gerhard if he lines up.
 
Thyme Hill be destroying some trends wouldn't he. I'd previously completely ignore him for this but I get the angle that this renewal looks really weak

I think GDM is the only one I've backed that might run here. And I'd rather he didn't as well :glee:

I've got JDB still entered as well actually but written it off.

Will have to reconsider the lot after final decs, and actually bring Thyme Hill into the thinking.
 
I wouldn't back Thyme Hill with anyone else's money, let alone mine.

That Kempton race was the worst chase grade 1 I've seen for a number of years.

The time was shockingly bad compared with the King George and they were losing ground throughout. They went slow and he still didn't pick up towards the end.

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...at-kempton-and-first-two-days-of-leopardstown

He ran well at Cheltenham over hurdles and you'd have to hope a visit back to Cheltenham will result in him putting up a better performance than the one at Kempton. I can't see it though.
 
It's all relative to opposition here though surely. There's not a horse in these BANC entries that I'd be expecting to compare well to the King George. He could probably go slow and not pick up and still be competitive here :excitement:
 
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I'm not sure I've seen a horse look as unnatural over fences as Thyme Hill did at Newbury, if that had been a 5yo on debut it would have been more understandable but this was a near 9yo in his 16th career start presumably having been schooled multiple times over the years.
And for me it comes back to the odd decision to send him chasing, he was a near top class performer over timber in what has been a fairly weak division for a few years, there would have been several big pots to play for during the season, had he always been a chaser in the making they surely wouldn't have given him three seasons hurdling. All of this is a huge negative for me.
And it's Philip Hobbs...
 
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Benjy23 said:
It's all relative to opposition here though surely. There's not a horse in these BANC entries that I'd be expecting to compare well to the King George. He could probably go slow and not pick up and still be competitive here :excitement:
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He was around 40 lengths slower and losing ground at the end, even when going slower early. Do you not think Geri, GDM and a few others would fare better? He's ran to the low 130s that day and is a grade 1 winner for it.

He will finish closer to last than first in the BANC.
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DenmanSacre said:
He was around 40 lengths slower and losing ground at the end, even when going slower early. Do you not think Geri, GDM and a few others would fare better? He's ran to the low 130s that day and is a grade 1 winner for it.

He will finish closer to last than first in the BANC.
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Low 130’s ?
strange way to compare form using 2 different races ran at different speeds.
I agree it’s not ideal for backers but no where near as cut and dried as your interpretation.IMO.
 
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It's not a surprise it's a weak race really with
Ginto
The nice guy
Minella cocooner
Blazing khal

All not being here for one reason or another

Basically none of the best staying novice hurdlers from last season have made it
 
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