2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[JackieMoon33]

This is where I'm at which is why I thought Abacadabras had no chance.
I was right, by a whisker.:chargrined::courage:
Sticking to it though, especially with his novice chasers as he's not really come close, in some poor renewals too.
Felix Desjy my fucking arse.
I know it's not with him anymore, but Ballyadam my arse as well.

Exactly. There is nothing wrong with Gordon’s sourcing process, it just doesn’t lend itself to having much in the way of quality two milers.

 

[jono]

I know you couldn't Rule him out - M.M.Mozzie.., But i'm still expecting Mullins , Henderson or Elliott to take this Prize ..:boxing:

That's my view as well BC. They have dominated the festival over the last few years, none more so than this race.
My first post in the 2021 thread detailed how strong this is.
2021 continued that with Appreciate It (Mullins) Ballyadam (Elliott in all but name) For Pleasure (Hales) and it would have been another clean sweep if Blue Lord (Mullins) had of jumped the last. They've filled 74% of the places in the last 9 runnings of the race.
And once again their first choice performed best.

MMM made as good as a hurdles debut as you could want.
But i'd be wanting to see how he gets on in one of the key trials before really getting too excited.

 

[Lobos]

That sort of backs up my point about Gordon sourcing a different type of horse though as he doesn’t even average a runner per year.

It does but I do feel this year could be different with him. He does have plenty of real good looking Novices to go to war with and if he's going to split them then one or two could find themselves going down the 2 mile route.

 

[Quevega]

It does but I do feel this year could be different with him. He does have plenty of real good looking Novices to go to war with and if he's going to split them then one or two could find themselves going down the 2 mile route.

Elliot tends to get them out earlier than Mullins and it often looks like his novice hurdlers are strong, then usually come christmas and especially Dublin, they get put in their place.
They are often over played in early antepost markets IMO. Especially the 2 mile divisions.
Does well with the juveniles though, I'll give him that.

 

[JackieMoon33]

It does but I do feel this year could be different with him. He does have plenty of real good looking Novices to go to war with and if he's going to split them then one or two could find themselves going down the 2 mile route.

But splitting horses and them “finding themselves” down the 2 mile route is hardly inspiring that they’ll be genuine contenders; more an after thought.

 

[Lobos]

But splitting horses and them “finding themselves” down the 2 mile route is hardly inspiring that they’ll be genuine contenders; more an after thought.

Of course. He'd only send them that way if they had a real chance over 2 like the other 8 he's sent. He doesn't waste his Supreme bullets.

 

[jono]

Elliott has strong stats for his Supreme runners, given the results from such few runners. I wouldn't discount his runners.
His place record is enough not to imo.

But there's no denying overall he's not the go to guy when it comes to 2 milers. In the last 10 years he's had 1 winners across the Supreme, Champion Hurdle, County Hurdle, Arkle and Champion Chase.

He's won the bumper and triumph multiple times but on the whole those races do lend themselves to future stayers.

 

[Quevega]

Elliott has strong stats for his Supreme runners, given the results from such few runners. I wouldn't discount his runners.
His place record is enough not to imo.

But there's no denying overall he's not the go to guy when it comes to 2 milers. In the last 10 years he's had 1 winners across the Supreme, Champion Hurdle, County Hurdle, Arkle and Champion Chase.

He's won the bumper and triumph multiple times but on the whole those races do lend themselves to future stayers.

Exactly my thoughts.:applause:
You're like Alistair Campbell to my Tony Blair.

 

[Lobos]

Elliott has strong stats for his Supreme runners, given the results from such few runners. I wouldn't discount his runners.
His place record is enough not to imo.

But there's no denying overall he's not the go to guy when it comes to 2 milers. In the last 10 years he's had 1 winners across the Supreme, Champion Hurdle, County Hurdle, Arkle and Champion Chase.

He's won the bumper and triumph multiple times but on the whole those races do lend themselves to future stayers.

Let's not forget he might have had the current Supreme fav Sir Gerhard and Champion Hurdle fancy Quilixios plus Arkle hopeful Ballyadam. Times could be a changing.

 

[JamieSensible]

I've had 2 very early season bets for the supreme;
● I Am Maximus at 50/1
● My mate mozzie 33/1

And I fancy 1 final bet on Dysart Dynamo currently bet priced 20/1.

I have liked I Am Maximus since I saw it run last year beating my Drogo, a horse whom I am also a big fan.
It really could be anything and obviously has electric pace, Henderson gave him a glowing review in the at the races stable tour recently.

My mate Mozzie, I have watched it race and it looks like a strong horse. It may not end up in the supreme but there's no harm in taking 33s, it could be anything.

Dysart Dynamo, I haven't bet this yet but he looks like another potential hot pot for Mullins, and I would like to be on before it wins again and the price vanishes.

I do like to have a couple of bets at antepost stage as well all know, they don't all make it to the race never mind have a chance of winning.

 

[Black Dog]

Welcome from a fellow newby. Are you related in any way to Captain?

 

[Spectre]

Spectre out of curiosity do you wager many bets or bigger than usual off the back of what the RPR is? Or is it more if it aligns with yours and gives you a bit more confidence.

I use them as corroboration for my own thoughts Outlaw, and they definitely influence both my bets, and what I lay or cash out. I find them particularly useful for two mile hurdles and bumpers.

 

[Lobos]

Broomfield Burg 40's into 20's with Skybet.... discuss

 

[JackieMoon33]

Broomfield Burg 40's into 20's with Skybet.... discuss

Nicky’s going to have the tricast? These moves don’t really worry me right now, especially not with Skybet who take shillings only.

 

[Spectre]

Broomfield Burg 40's into 20's with Skybet.... discuss

Who knows to be honest. I was at Warwick when he won his last race as easy as you like, but I'd question why he was there if Hendo has him at the top of his pecking order. I'd say if he is Festival class it would have to be the Supreme because he's very keen in his races, and you'd get the best of him off a strong pace. He pulled really hard at Warwick, and I was surprised that he was still full of running at the end. Trafalgar Boy of Moore's who he beat I suspect is no mug and he put him away easily.

It also looks like Henderson will keep him to better ground if his May runs off the back of a defeat in poor ground is anything to go by. That's good generally for a Festival horse, but given he's probably going to come off his holiday later than some, it may not be great in terms of getting experience in to him, or more importantly getting a handle on his ability.

I suspect he's useful and they're minding him. How useful I don't know. We need to see him in the right race somewhere I guess. As for the cut from 40's to 20's by Skybet I suspect it's just a taking no chances move rather than something significant. Sometime it can be a bit of stable money though, and bookies are good at tracking accounts that are connected.

He's not a horse I'd be looking to back myself, but he is in my tracker as a horse of interest to watch out for what he does.

 

[Run4Home]

A nice little quote..

Roles were reversed at Punchestown in a differently run race but I still wouldn’t like to call which is better. But Mikey Fogarty did tell me Dysart Dynamo was better than both pre-Punchestown. Mikey can say some funny things, though . . .

 

[OverTheLast]

A nice little quote..

Where is this from mate?

 

[OverTheLast]

Fogarty is mad. Met him a couple of times, clean mad. But he is a real good judge.

 

[Run4Home]

Where is this from mate?

Patrick in Racing P

 

[OverTheLast]

Patrick in Racing P

Thanks - is there anything on Dark Raven?