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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

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  • Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021



    Figured we should start having individual threads for most races now? Being October and some nice horses starting to appear...(come on Kev pull your finger out )

    And the talk of Your Darling and his subsequent defeat today got me thinking about this race.
    Plenty will get talked up, with connections understandably bullish ahead of the new season but this race (along with many to be fair) really does boil down to Mullins, Elliott and Henderson.

    In the last 8 seasons the 3 placed horses in each renewal have been trained by:

    2020

    Shishkin - Henderson
    Abacadabras - Elliott
    Chantry House - Henderson


    2019

    Klassical Dream - Mullins
    Thomas Darby - O Murphy
    Itchy Feet - O Murphy

    2018

    Summerville Boy - George
    Kalashnikov - A Murphy
    Mengli Khan - Elliott

    2017

    Labaik - Elliott
    Melon - Mullins
    River Wylde - Henderson


    2016

    Altior - Henderson
    Min - Mullins
    Buveur D'Air - Henderson


    2015

    Douvan - Mullins
    Shaneshill - Mullins

    Sizing John - de Bromhead

    2014

    Vautour - Mullins
    Josses Hill - Henderson
    Vaniteux - Henderson


    2013

    Champagne Fever - Mullins
    My Tent Or Yours - Henderson

    Jezki - Harrington

    75% of the places have been filled by those 3 trainers
    With those 3 doing a clean sweep of the placings in 4 of those runnings.

    Way ahead of the other 2 main ovice hurdles in that time.
    With only 6 of the 24 places going to other trainers.

    Despite how highly a horse may be considered, it'll take a very good horse to have me fancying their chances here outside of the big 3 trainers and it really does pay to focus most of the attention on those. Stating the obvious to a degree, they are the 3 best festival trainers, with more often than not more than one chance in the race (less so with Elliott who has so far only once had more than 1 runner)

    2020 - Mullins x4 / Elliott x1 / Henderson x3
    2019 - Mullins x2 / Elliott x2 / Henderson x2
    2018 - Mullins x3 / Elliott x1 / Henderson x1
    2017 - Mullins x4 / Elliott x1 / Henderson x2
    2016 - Mullins x3 / Elliott x1 / Henderson x2
    2015 - Mullins x4 / Henderson x2
    2014 - Mullins x3 / Henderson x2
    2013 - Mullins x3 / Elliott x1 / Henderson x2

    The problem of course is narrowing the horses down from an antepost point of view, and then on the day. When most likely there could be 20-30 horses between the three that start the season as potential Supreme horses. With the 3 averaging a combined 6 runners in the race per year.

    That said the market generally has it spot in when it comes to the best horses from each yard.

    Over those last 8 years, each of the trainers shortest prices runner has finished ahead of their own stablemate except once - when Josses Hill (14/1) finished ahead of Vaniteux (11/1) in 2014, though even then they both placed. Even if they do not win, the market had it right in who was the yards leading hope in the race.

    2020

    Henderson - Shishkin - 1st
    Elliott - Abacadabras - 2nd

    Mullins - Asterion Forlonge - 4th

    2019

    Henderson - Angels Breath - 7th
    Elliott - Felix Desjy - 6th
    Mullins - Klassical Dream - 1st

    2018

    Henderson - Claimintakinforgan - 5th
    Elliott - Mengli Khan - 3rd
    Mullins - Getabird - 11th

    2017

    Henderson - River Wylde - 3rd
    Elliott - Labaik - 1st
    Mullins - Melon - 2nd

    2016

    Henderson - Altior - 1st
    Elliott - Tombstone - 4th
    Mullins - Min - 2nd

    2015

    Henderson - L'ami Serge - 4th
    Mullins - Douvan - 1st

    2014

    Henderson - Vaniteux - 3rd (Josses Hill 2nd)
    Mullins - Vautour - 1st


    2013

    Henderson - My Tent Or Yours - 2nd
    Elliott - Cause of Causes - 7th
    Mullins - Champagne Fever - 1st


    So the story in this race is find the main fancy from each of Mullins, Henderson and Elliott.
    Don't spend too much time looking elsewhere...

    and you'll do alright


    For reference as of 13/10/20 The market has the 3 following horses as the shortest priced for each trainer:

    Mullins - Ferny Hollow 10/1
    Elliott - Ballyadam 16/1
    Henderson - Flinteur Sacre 20/1
    Attached Files
    Last edited by jono; 13 October 2020, 08:42 PM.

  • #2
    Great idea Jon.
    Can you edit the post to include main challengers and todays prices please

    Comment


    • #3
      I'd say it would be dangerous to not include up and coming trainers as potentials also, the likes of Olly Murphy who hasn't had many Supreme runners but has finished 2nd and 3rd (in the same year) and someone like Joseph O'Brien (managed to get a 4 year old to finish 4th a couple of years back) who I think would have no issue getting one ready for a Supreme.

      A lot of it comes down to the ammunition the top three trainers you mention get. It will be hard for many to compete but I don't think it's a forgone conclusion with some of the younger trainers coming through the ranks. Certainly potential banana skins.

      Forgot to say, nice work getting this thread up and running though, and useful info as always
      Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 13 October 2020, 08:13 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Superb work!

        I mean, is there much else to say. It's FatJockey... cue the 150+ pages

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by jono View Post
          Figured we should start having individual threads for most races now? Being October and some nice horses starting to appear...(come on Kev pull your finger out )




          Week commencing 26th October.




          Excellent post, will definitely be something to have to bear in mind and come back to... as 'muggy' as it might appear, the stats are quite eye-opening.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
            I'd say it would be dangerous to not include up and coming trainers as potentials also, the likes of Olly Murphy who hasn't had many Supreme runners but has finished 2nd and 3rd (in the same year) and someone like Joseph O'Brien (managed to get a 4 year old to finish 4th a couple of years back) who I think would have no issue getting one ready for a Supreme.

            A lot of it comes down to the ammunition the top three trainers you mention get. It will be hard for many to compete but I don't think it's a forgone conclusion with some of the younger trainers coming through the ranks. Certainly potential banana skins.
            Yeah, if you cut the sample size down to just the last 3 most recent runnings, then you have a different outlook. So you could argue 'this' stranglehold isn't quite as strong now as it was. But for me i'll still be assuming that the race is very likely to end up between the 3, unless either A) a superstar looks to be emerging trained elsewhere or B) it's a rare year where none of them seem to have a particularly strong set of horses for the race.

            I just tend to find at this time of year, you'll get plenty of stable tours with bullish comments thrown around by trainers/owners. Follow them with a maiden hurdle win and it's easy to get drawn into many a horse (which I myself have done - I remember being very keen on Seddon for example last year after his hurdles debut) But generally, by March it's very different story.

            Absolutely the danger is to be lazy and completely discount anyone else. And obviously you back those 3 and you'll get winners at the festival, year after year - groundbreaking stuff.

            The sheer level of success overall was the surprising aspect. And the fact that it's the horse that goes into the race as the shortest and most likely winner means although they have numbers on their side, it's certainly not a case of throwing several darts at the race and hoping for the best.

            Comment


            • #7
              Any of the 'trends' guys have any idea where/when Ferny Hollow will start? Where does Willie usually start his better ones?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by OverTheLast View Post
                Any of the 'trends' guys have any idea where/when Ferny Hollow will start? Where does Willie usually start his better ones?
                Not too sure about where but almost all Willies supreme winners start in December.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by jono View Post
                  Yeah, if you cut the sample size down to just the last 3 most recent runnings, then you have a different outlook. So you could argue 'this' stranglehold isn't quite as strong now as it was. But for me i'll still be assuming that the race is very likely to end up between the 3, unless either A) a superstar looks to be emerging trained elsewhere or B) it's a rare year where none of them seem to have a particularly strong set of horses for the race.

                  I just tend to find at this time of year, you'll get plenty of stable tours with bullish comments thrown around by trainers/owners. Follow them with a maiden hurdle win and it's easy to get drawn into many a horse (which I myself have done - I remember being very keen on Seddon for example last year after his hurdles debut) But generally, by March it's very different story.

                  Absolutely the danger is to be lazy and completely discount anyone else. And obviously you back those 3 and you'll get winners at the festival, year after year - groundbreaking stuff.

                  The sheer level of success overall was the surprising aspect. And the fact that it's the horse that goes into the race as the shortest and most likely winner means although they have numbers on their side, it's certainly not a case of throwing several darts at the race and hoping for the best.
                  I usually start with WPM & Hendo, myself, so completely agree about focusing on them two for this race, for sure.

                  At some point I think there will be a shift, or a break in this pattern as some of the younger well connected trainers start getting some better animals in their yards.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                    I usually start with WPM & Hendo, myself, so completely agree about focusing on them two for this race, for sure.

                    At some point I think there will be a shift, or a break in this pattern as some of the younger well connected trainers start getting some better animals in their yards.
                    Let's not forget, Jono wrote Willie Mullins off a few years ago

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      One problem we have this season is that by now Scooby has usually provided us with the name of the winner! He has though in his blog poured some cold water on whether Flinteur Sacre can live up to his pedigree, so it will be interesting to see how that turns out as already pointed out FS is currently NH's number 1 in the betting.

                      Personally I'm still keen on Ferny Hollow, having stuck with him throughout his Bumper escapades last season. Whether the form of the Cheltenham bumper proves to be any good is currently open to question but he landed my money in the end, so Im hoping he will progress over hurdles and excell in this race.

                      Uhtred would be my next shout at this stage based on paperwork alone, until we see the leading fancies actually run.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Nortons who View Post
                        One problem we have this season is that by now Scooby has usually provided us with the name of the winner! He has though in his blog poured some cold water on whether Flinteur Sacre can live up to his pedigree, so it will be interesting to see how that turns out as already pointed out FS is currently NH's number 1 in the betting.

                        Personally I'm still keen on Ferny Hollow, having stuck with him throughout his Bumper escapades last season. Whether the form of the Cheltenham bumper proves to be any good is currently open to question but he landed my money in the end, so Im hoping he will progress over hurdles and excell in this race.

                        Uhtred would be my next shout at this stage based on paperwork alone, until we see the leading fancies actually run.
                        Didn't he put up Fly Smart last year?

                        He did Klassical Dream a year too early too.... maybe lightning will strike twice

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                          Let's not forget, Jono wrote Willie Mullins off a few years ago
                          Ruby knew. He got out whilst he could #sinkingship

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            Didn't he put up Fly Smart last year?

                            He did Klassical Dream a year too early too.... maybe lightning will strike twice
                            I think there is a big chance it could

                            Unless Henderson has one hidden away

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Just totted it up...out of the 58 singles I've done, 33 of them are either Mullins, Gord or Hendo. Mental.

                              Comment

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