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2022 Novice Hurdle Division

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Lbur4288 said:
According to someone on Twitter I am Maximus is likely to go to Deauville next week although I can find nothing else to confirm this. Anybody heard anything from a reputable source?
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Presume you mean this tweet?
@getcakedBGP
There’s some proper racing at Deauville next week. I Am Maximus and Flotus are two from a whole load of proper horses from the UK heading over there in search of better ground.

Be a bit of a weird one for Henderson wouldn't it?
 
Atlantic Viking said:
Presume you mean this tweet?
@getcakedBGP
There’s some proper racing at Deauville next week. I Am Maximus and Flotus are two from a whole load of proper horses from the UK heading over there in search of better ground.

Be a bit of a weird one for Henderson wouldn't it?
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It was a screenshot I was sent but it looks like the fella, yes. I just can't see it myself, I know Nicky Henderson habitually blames ground for pulling/avoid certain races but even this seems a stretch far.
 
He's brought plenty over from France obviously but i'm struggling to think of ones Nicky has sent over there for a run. I'm sure there must be plenty but i've not found one yet. Anyone?! Fun little game for a wet and miserable Friday morning...

Edit: Found one so far! L'Ami Serge went over to Auteuil for some big pots, twice as a 7yo and once as an 8yo.
 
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Deauville is also flat racing? Surely it’s a mistake and hendo ain’t sending a horse over for a flat race in France?
 
Olliemagern said:
Deauville is also flat racing? Surely it’s a mistake and hendo ain’t sending a horse over for a flat race in France?
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Its Deauville season at the time of year.

They hold Flat racing all through August, in their holiday season (4-Days a week)

It has an all-weather course too.

There is no Jump racing.

https://www.billetterie.france-galop...g-de-deauville

"Located in the outskirts of Normandy, this 75-hectare facility hosts thoroughbred flat racing. Deauville is well known as a seaside resort enjoyed for all the facilities and entertainment.

The Deauville-la-Touques racecourse is known abroad for the quality of its summer competitions.

20 hectares are dedicated to the tracks.

Most of the meetings takes place in the summer & winter periods

Main races and events:
  • Prix d'Astart - G1 (End of July – beginning of August)
  • Prix Maurice de Gheest- G1 (End of July – beginning of August)
  • Prix du Haras de Fresnay le Buffard-Jacques le Marois (2nd week-end of August)
  • Prix Morny (End of August),
  • Grand Prix de Deauville Lucien Barriere- G2 (End of August)
  • Equidays (2nd week-end of October)
  • Journee Shadwell (Mid-August)
  • Prix Rothschild (Beginning of August)
The December meetings in Deauville are another option for race lovers, with a good racing program on the all-weather track over the last weekend."
 
Drove past Deauville Racecourse and spent half an hour in Town , ( Very Swanky ) on my way to the Normandy Landing Beaches 4 years ago.
 
Having looked at the Deauville entries I am positive that the Twitter posters have mixed up I am Maximus with Sam Maximus. I did find it very odd that NH would send his horse on the flat in France.
 
Lbur4288 said:
Having looked at the Deauville entries I am positive that the Twitter posters have mixed up I am Maximus with Sam Maximus. I did find it very odd that NH would send his horse on the flat in France.
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Good work Detective Lbur, as you say, it did seem a bit odd to say the least but with NH you just never know these days!
 
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Arctic Warrior- is back out again Thursday, now I'm not saying he might end up Cheltenham class but he was cruising before diving at one two out looking like he would beat Decimation who ties in to mid 130 novices easily. He got mentioned a bit last year due to his half sibling being Arctic Fire, he's in a race over 20f and will be very short especially with trainer/owner combo for this 20f maiden but I'm interested in how he goes after that clumsy mistake lto with an eye to down the line.
 
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Outlaw said:
Arctic Warrior- is back out again Thursday, now I'm not saying he might end up Cheltenham class but he was cruising before diving at one two out looking like he would beat Decimation who ties in to mid 130 novices easily. He got mentioned a bit last year due to his half sibling being Arctic Fire, he's in a race over 20f and will be very short especially with trainer/owner combo for this 20f maiden but I'm interested in how he goes after that clumsy mistake lto with an eye to down the line.
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Great spot Outlaw.

He was cruising all over the winner when he crashed badly at the 2nd last.

Its no wonder they left him off for the season, to keep novice status and give him time to recover.

On Thursday they should see what they have got, with the horse, as the opposition looks moderate, apart from The Banger Doyle (who has to give him 8lb). :encouragement:
 
Outlaw said:
Arctic Warrior- is back out again Thursday, now I'm not saying he might end up Cheltenham class but he was cruising before diving at one two out looking like he would beat Decimation who ties in to mid 130 novices easily. He got mentioned a bit last year due to his half sibling being Arctic Fire, he's in a race over 20f and will be very short especially with trainer/owner combo for this 20f maiden but I'm interested in how he goes after that clumsy mistake lto with an eye to down the line.
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…be a nice one in the ‘win today & any race at the Festival’ if somebody can get that priced up with Sky.
 
Eggs said:
…be a nice one in the ‘win today & any race at the Festival’ if somebody can get that priced up with Sky.
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May be a nice one for a rollover or a double with a Festival horse.

EDIT: Scrap that idea he is 2/9 Fav.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
May be a nice one for a rollover or a double with a Festival horse.

EDIT: Scrap that idea he is 2/9 Fav.
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Why scrap the idea SW ?
At 2/9 you’re boosting the price of anything you throw with it by 22.5%, everyone works differently but for me that’s exactly what I’d use a 2/9 shot for, not a huge boost granted but a boost nonetheless.
That said I lost a couple of accounts doing this last year so it may be something bookies don’t like and your account gets flagged if you do…
 
What do we all think of Eileendover?

She made a big splash on debut. Her first three bumpers were eye-catchingly impressive, not least beating Grangee by 8 lengths. She then slightly disappointed in fourth in the Aintree Mares Bumper, when losing her race because she was far too fresh.

Connections thought her exceptional, and that a flat campaign would take her to the top, and after it hasn't worked out the way they thought it would, presumably we'll see her over hurdles this season, with the possibility of a Mares Novice Hurdle target at the Festival.

I think I'm right in saying that her RPR of 125 was the highest for any Mare last season, which is ahead of Elle Est Belle and Grangee, so he has the right basic credentials.

On the face of it her ability would make her of real interest for March where she is 16/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle. The trouble is I just can't quite warm to her. It's nothing specific either. She clearly has lots of ability, and should be in the mix with the best of the novice mares next season. Yes, perhaps there's a suspicion that she may want a flat track, and she isn't with a fashinable trainer, but neither of those things would normally put me off. She hasn't had the chance to prove herself at a stiffer course yet, and I don't mind Pam Sly as a trainer. She very capable of readying a good one.

I think perhaps I just need to hear the case 'for' from someone who thinks she's interesting for next season. She probably should be in my Mares Novice Hurdle book for Cheltenham, but I want cashout and 365 are four points shorter at 12/1 which is just too short. Therefore I need pursuading that I should take 16/1 from PP or Sportsbook. In fact she'll be 18/1 with a boost with Sportsbook. 18/1 at 50% better than 365 would perhaps be worth the risk if someone can make a coherant case for her, and get me past the mental block I seem to have with her?
 
[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]I thought the trainer stated that flat racing would be the plan.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]She's rated 92 on the flat after 3 hurdles runs, two in Listed races, so it looks like they're searching for black type.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]She only been 2 or 3 lengths away from being placed in both those Listed races, so I'm sure the plan would be to go right through the flat campaign looking to bag a win or place in a Listed flat race.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]I bet without the plan of making a book on each race so I wouldnt back her until news broke that she would be going hurdling, and/or she had an entry in a hurdle race.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]But, as you make a wider betting book then 18/1 doesn't sound out of line, with the chance to cash out.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]She hasn't regressed on the flat, her standard is very good[/FONT].
 
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Spectre said:
I think I'm right in saying that her RPR of 125 was the highest for any Mare last season, which is ahead of Elle Est Belle and Grangee, so he has the right basic credentials.
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My issue with her is that she achieved that rating on debut and all subsequent ratings have been (almost) progressively worse (125, 121, 112, 113) and that carried over into her flat campaign.
Hard to say a horse is regressing at 4 and she may well rediscover some form and become a genuine contender for the Mares Novice but her profile is not one that tells me to start climbing in, I'd really need to see her impress in a couple of hurdle races first....
 
Spectre said:
What do we all think of Eileendover?

She made a big splash on debut. Her first three bumpers were eye-catchingly impressive, not least beating Grangee by 8 lengths. She then slightly disappointed in fourth in the Aintree Mares Bumper, when losing her race because she was far too fresh.

Connections thought her exceptional, and that a flat campaign would take her to the top, and after it hasn't worked out the way they thought it would, presumably we'll see her over hurdles this season, with the possibility of a Mares Novice Hurdle target at the Festival.

I think I'm right in saying that her RPR of 125 was the highest for any Mare last season, which is ahead of Elle Est Belle and Grangee, so he has the right basic credentials.

On the face of it her ability would make her of real interest for March where she is 16/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle. The trouble is I just can't quite warm to her. It's nothing specific either. She clearly has lots of ability, and should be in the mix with the best of the novice mares next season. Yes, perhaps there's a suspicion that she may want a flat track, and she isn't with a fashinable trainer, but neither of those things would normally put me off. She hasn't had the chance to prove herself at a stiffer course yet, and I don't mind Pam Sly as a trainer. She very capable of readying a good one.
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I'm like you Spectre, I've not really taken to her, probably likely to do with her trainer etc... I noticed the RPR of 125 was from her debut, she then ran and won twice and both times recorded lower RPR's, maybe she was just primed for that debut run, or maybe she just looked a whole heap better because of the opposition, or maybe it was the trip difference, whatever the reason I usually like to see an increase in potential ratings as the season progresses. Purely based on collateral form (through Grangee) she should have the beating of Elle Est Belle, so the price difference makes little sense.


Spectre said:
I think perhaps I just need to hear the case 'for' from someone who thinks she's interesting for next season. She probably should be in my Mares Novice Hurdle book for Cheltenham, but I want cashout and 365 are four points shorter at 12/1 which is just too short. Therefore I need pursuading that I should take 16/1 from PP or Sportsbook. In fact she'll be 18/1 with a boost with Sportsbook. 18/1 at 50% better than 365 would perhaps be worth the risk if someone can make a coherant case for her, and get me past the mental block I seem to have with her?
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Sportsbook offer cash out don't they?
 
Yes Sportsbook do CoD, but it's hit and miss for me, and they have a habit of taking it away when you're not expecting it. I'll use them generally if I'm okay that the race in question is the target, or the price is significantly bigger than 365 to tempt me.

I think from all the comments above from very well respected judges, we are all in a similar place with her. Step one is we need confirmation of a hurdling campaign. Step two is we need to know that the Mares Hurlde is at the very least a consideration, and she won't be regarded as an Aintree type. Step three is she needs to prove she's progressive enough to be in the mix with the best novice mares. Until we have an inkling that all three may happen best price with reliable cashout of 12/1 is a terrible price.
 
Spectre said:
Yes Sportsbook do CoD, but it's hit and miss for me, and they have a habit of taking it away when you're not expecting it.
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Yeah you definitely have to keep an eye on it, I have all of my early BF Sportsbook antepost stuff available for cashout, but I noticed one day that the 'cash out' tab, which shows the number of bets you have, stopped updating and that I wasn't being given it anymore, even if the little circle icon was included on the betslip when I placed it. I queried this with their customer services who basically just said it's one of those things etc... I have placed a few different bets of varying stakes since I noticed and not a single one of them was made available for cash out. As it happens, I just got in touch with them again moments ago about it all and received the following response:

"Regarding your cash-out query, unfortunately Cash out is not always available and guaranteed. Due to its nature, it's only available when the traders have a fair cash out price to offer and the liquidity of the market is high. Also these decisions are taken/done by our traders and therefore we have no means to reverse/change such terms.
I appreciate you may have been hoping for a different outcome here, but unfortunately there is nothing else I would be able to do for you in this case."
 
Outlaw said:
Arctic Warrior- is back out again Thursday, now I'm not saying he might end up Cheltenham class but he was cruising before diving at one two out looking like he would beat Decimation who ties in to mid 130 novices easily. He got mentioned a bit last year due to his half sibling being Arctic Fire, he's in a race over 20f and will be very short especially with trainer/owner combo for this 20f maiden but I'm interested in how he goes after that clumsy mistake lto with an eye to down the line.
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….hard to know what to make of that given the opposition. Pulled hard, didn’t jump particularly well but won going away at the end.
 
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