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2022 Novice Chase Division

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Any others mentioned?? Journey with Me, Aspire Tower, Quilixios, Jason The Militant .....

No just minella indo, honey, ptko, envoi and bob. Nothing we didn’t know already apart from the snippets of info regarding envoi and bob
 
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A cover bet on bob for the banc at 20/1 with pp/betfair is surely a no brainer

….I have Bob O at 44-1 for both the Marsh & BANC (as well as 18-1 a/r) but my returns are much healthier for BANC. Given PP are supposed to have a line on Irish runners, it is a concern theirs is such a stand-out price.
 
sorry another shop related query from me.. I can’t get on with PP/BF. There aren’t any PP shops local to me but I know there’s some in Liverpool which I’ll be there in a couple of weeks… I assume PP shops have ante post? And are they the same price as online?

Be very careful mate.

I was in a PP shop in Belfast about 6 weeks ago and the cashier was clueless. I wrote four anteposts horses out with Cheltenham 2022 and the correct races - came back with Honeysuckle 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle and 25/1 Bob for Marsh. I threw the docket in bin and walked out without placing a bet.

How hard is it to read a f**king computer?
 
sorry another shop related query from me.. I can’t get on with PP/BF. There aren’t any PP shops local to me but I know there’s some in Liverpool which I’ll be there in a couple of weeks… I assume PP shops have ante post? And are they the same price as online?

I do the occasional A/p Bet with P.Power , at the London Bridge / borough Market shop . never had any issue's . , staff are helpful.
 
sorry another shop related query from me.. I can’t get on with PP/BF. There aren’t any PP shops local to me but I know there’s some in Liverpool which I’ll be there in a couple of weeks… I assume PP shops have ante post? And are they the same price as online?

Someone told me a few years ago there are bet365 shops in Stoke, just in case you’re passing, in fact it could easily be worth a drive if you’re not close come festival time…
 
I do the occasional A/p Bet with P.Power , at the London Bridge / borough Market shop . never had any issue's . , staff are helpful.

Good to know Chaaang. Looks like the majority of shops are in London. As a rural northern head I’m limited to what’s Liverpool/Manchester way which is about 45 mins but if I happen to be there I’ll look to grab a standout price. Do you know if the prices are the same as online?
 
Someone told me a few years ago there are bet365 shops in Stoke, just in case you’re passing, in fact it could easily be worth a drive if you’re not close come festival time…

started 365 from a car park I believe.. maybe it’s still there :biggrin-new: I’m in Cheshire so not far at all for me although I’m good with getting on with 365 for now.. Good to know though, may be of use to others
 
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In an effort to broaden my horizons, I decided to look at the DIs of all those who finished in the first three of the WFA novice chases at the Cheltenham festival since 2002. These were my findings;-

WVzDwqZ.png

Here are the DIs split between age groups
KHP7aye.png

Here are the races grouped together.

WHV5cxO.png

The findings essentially show that I spent the morning fishing for white noise. If there is anything to be extrapolated, it is that stamina develops with age and that most connections will have determined a horse's capacity for staying by the time they are old enough to contest the festival novice chases. Being generous, if one ignores the National Hunt Chase, there is vague evidence supporting the notion that lower DIs become more of a factor when the need for stamina increases, and as the samples were relatively small, the NHC figures are skewed by the fact that five of the ten highest winning DIs were recorded in that marathon.

This is compounded by the limitations of DI due to the select chefs-de-race processes. Hot Weld had a DI of 4.33 but his parents won the Doncaster Cup and the West Yorkshire Hurdle. Le Breuil had a DI of 2.50 but was from an Anzillero x Fabulous Dancer cross - both were best over twelve furlongs on the flat. Chicago Grey's DI was 2.11 and he was by Luso (another middle-distance horse) and out of a Lord Americo mare.

Hopefully that was compelling even if not particularly useful.
 
…ha, ha, brilliant stuff.
 
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Good to know Chaaang. Looks like the majority of shops are in London. As a rural northern head I’m limited to what’s Liverpool/Manchester way which is about 45 mins but if I happen to be there I’ll look to grab a standout price. Do you know if the prices are the same as online?

Yeah , DeeBee , definitely the same as online.:eagerness:.
 
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In an effort to broaden my horizons, I decided to look at the DIs of all those who finished in the first three of the WFA novice chases at the Cheltenham festival since 2002. These were my findings;-

WVzDwqZ.png

Here are the DIs split between age groups
KHP7aye.png

Here are the races grouped together.

WHV5cxO.png

The findings essentially show that I spent the morning fishing for white noise. If there is anything to be extrapolated, it is that stamina develops with age and that most connections will have determined a horse's capacity for staying by the time they are old enough to contest the festival novice chases. Being generous, if one ignores the National Hunt Chase, there is vague evidence supporting the notion that lower DIs become more of a factor when the need for stamina increases, and as the samples were relatively small, the NHC figures are skewed by the fact that five of the ten highest winning DIs were recorded in that marathon.

This is compounded by the limitations of DI due to the select chefs-de-race processes. Hot Weld had a DI of 4.33 but his parents won the Doncaster Cup and the West Yorkshire Hurdle. Le Breuil had a DI of 2.50 but was from an Anzillero x Fabulous Dancer cross - both were best over twelve furlongs on the flat. Chicago Grey's DI was 2.11 and he was by Luso (another middle-distance horse) and out of a Lord Americo mare.

Hopefully that was compelling even if not particularly useful.

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head Kotki. As horses mature speed is blunted and stamina takes over. DI in National Hunt horses is useful early in their careers though which is why you have success with the juveniles.
 
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head Kotki. As horses mature speed is blunted and stamina takes over. DI in National Hunt horses is useful early in their careers though which is why you have success with the juveniles.

Stupid question alert. What is DI?
 
Best of luck understanding it, I leave that to the FJ genius that is Kotkijet…
 
Following on from yesterday's post on age and DI should be a more informative contribution. For the first section, I have collated some pedigree information pertinent to potential chasing careers for fifty horses. Forty-nine who could make an impact on this season's novice chasing division if going down that route, and Gin On Lime.

The noted relatives have essentially been restricted to those who have winning form over fences which is also fairly useful. There may be instances were a classier chaser at something like 5/3 will be omitted in favour of a glut of useful sorts who are more closely related. Accordingly, should a horse have three classy but distantly related sorts by their names (eg Jason The Militant), that will because the closer damline was bereft of chasers.

Appreciate It 7bg W P Mullins p2-1-0 h4-4-0 (160) 165
Jeremy (Saint Des Saints){31}(3.00) 0.5 Danny Kirwan 2/1 Bingo Bell 5/5 Pindare
Bob Olinger 6bg Henry De Bromhead p1-1-0 h4-3-1 (159) 163
Sholokhov (Zaffaran){6-f}(1.00) 2/1 Very Stylish 3/1 The Railway Man 4/1 Arfer Mole
My Drogo 6bg Dan Skelton h4-4-0 (155) 156
Milan (Midnight Legend){11-d}(0.54) 1/0 My Petra 2/1 Midnight Appeal 2/1 Lake Legend
Galopin des Champs 5blg W P Mullins h6-3-1 (155) 161
Timos (Marchand De Sable){1-w}(0.67) 1/1 Flute des Champs 2/1 Terminator
Klassical Dream 7bg W P Mullins h12-5-3 (165) 171
Dream Well (Septieme Ciel){4-m}(1.11) 1/0 Klassical Way 2/2 Diego du Charmil 3/3 Fiumincino
Quilixios 4bg Henry De Bromhead h6-5-0 (150) 149
Maxios (Lomitas){16-c}(0.63) 3/1 Quicuyo
Run Wild Fred 7chg Mrs Denise Foster p1-0-0 h4-2-1 (144) 149 c7-0-4 (145) 151
Shantou (Talkin Man){3-a}(2.43) 2/1 Mcllhatton
Ferny Hollow 6bbg W P Mullins p1-1-0 h1-1-0 (-) 147
Westerner (Good Thyne){u}(0.68) 2/1 Hersov 2/1 Larks Lad 3/1 Morley Street
Ashdale Bob 6bg Mrs John Harrington h9-3-2 (146) 147
Shantou (Bob Back){5-j}(1.67) 2/0 Glens Music 2/1 Quietly Fancied 3/2 Whatuthink
Bravemansgame 6bg Paul Nicholls p1-1-0 h6-3-3 (149) 154
Brave Mansonnien (Nickname){11-a}(1.67) 2/1 Sagalyrique 2/1 Gray Steel
Stattler 6brg W P Mullins h5-1-3 (142) 147
Stowaway (Old Vic){19}(0.47) 0.5 Binge Drinker 2/1 Gurkha Brave 3/2 Father Matt
Monmiral 4blg Paul Nicholls j5-5-0 (153) 151
Saint des Saints (Mont Basile){16}(0.60) 0.5 Soulongy 2/1 La Landiere 2/2 Drop Out Joe
Vanillier 6grg Gavin Cromwell p2-1-0 h6-2-2 (150) 153
Martaline (Turgeon){6-e}(0.67) 0.5 Vif Ardent 2/0 Vinca 2/1 Vishnu
Goshen 5bg Gary Moore h8-4-0 (157) 167
Authorized (Poliglote){4-i}(0.63) 0.5 Elimay 2/1 Innovate 2/1 Spice
Honeysuckle 7bm Henry De Bromhead p1-1-0 h12-12-0 (165) 166
Sulamani (Lando){16-c}(1.00) 0.5 Colorado Doc 3/1 First Point
Jungle Boogie 7bg W P Mullins h1-1-0 (-) 135
Gold Well (Moscow Society){2-a}(0.74) 2/1 Old Wigmore 3/2 Turpin Green 3/3 Up For Review
James Du Berlais 5chg W P Mullins h15-4-6 (156) 160
Muhtathir (King's Theatre){19-a}(0.87) 1/1 Queen du Berlais 0.5 Goliath du Berlais 2/1 Lyreen Legend
Craigneiche 7brg Nicky Henderson h4-2-2 (142) 143
Flemensfirth (Definite Article){1-d}(3.67) 3/1 Washington Lad 4/1 Lake Teereen 4/2 Lastoftheleaders
Gaillard du Mesnil 5grg W P Mullins h5-3-2 (150) 155
Saint des Saints (Al Namix){1-e}(0.45) 3/1 Napalm du Mesnil 4/2 Soldatino
Minella Drama 6bg Donald McCain p2-0-2 h6-3-3 (143) 144
Flemensfirth (King's Theatre){41}(1.46) 3/1 What A Question 3/2 The Real Article 7/2 Arkle
Thyme Hill 7bg Philip Hobbs h7-5-1 (162) 163
Kayf Tara (Hernando){10-c}(0.67) 1/1 Storming Strumpet 2/0 Lemon's Mill 2/1 Milgen Bay
Gentlemansgame 5grg M F Morris p1-1-0 h4-1-3 (143) 147
Gentlewave (Terimon){8-a}(0.60) 2/2 Kings Ryde 3/1 Well Ridden 4/2 Teeton Mill
Dusart 6bg Nicky Henderson h2-1-1 (141) 146
Flemensfirth (Terimon){4-c}(1.33) 0.5 Simonsig 0.5 Drumcliff 2/2 My Murphy
Pentland Hills 6bg Nicky Henderson h6-3-1 (156) 157
Motivator (Galileo){19}(0.77) 0.5 Camlann 4/4 Captain Cee Bee 4/5 Moon Over Miami
Indiana Jones 5bg M F Morris h5-1-2 (132) 132
Blue Bresil (Laveron){1-s}(3.00) 2/0 Lirfox 3/1 Aupcharlie
The Bosses Oscar 6bg Mrs Denise Foster p2-0-2 h9-2-5 (150) 155
Oscar (Vinnie Roe){8-a}(0.54) 2/1 Noras Fancy 3/2 Mr Antolini 4/3 Bog Warrior
Jonbon 5bg Nicky Henderson p1-1-0 h0-0-0
Walk In The Park (Saint des Saints){9-h}(0.52) 1/1 Douvan 2/0 Folie Star Gate
Barbados Buck's 6bg Paul Nicholls p1-0-1 h5-3-1 (143) 142
Getaway (Epervier Bleu){5-e}(0.75) 0.5 More Buck's 2/1 Big Buck's 2/1 Buck's Bank
Grand Paradis 5grg Mrs Denise Foster h3-2-0 (-) 150
Martaline (Sleeping Car){3-m}(0.57) 0.5 Bob And Co 0.5 Vezelay 2/1 Raz de Maree
Fury Road 7bg Mrs Denise Foster p2-1-0 h10-4-2 (153) 159
Stowaway (Oscar){u}(0.39) 0.5 Rebel Royal 2/1 Fort Worth 3/1 Morley Street
Five O'Clock 6bg W P Mullins h7-2-3 (144) 143
Cokoriko (Kapgarde){12-b}(0.50) 1/2 Rikoboy 2/1 Tyko 2/2 The Saint James
Capodanno 5chg W P Mullins h6-2-3 (147) 153
Manduro (Muhtathir){4-r}(0.54) 1/0 Day Gets Up
Blue Lord 6bg W P Mullins h5-1-3 (148) 155
Blue Bresil (Cachet Noir){7}(1.67) 2/1 Bal Express 2/1 Ditoine 3/1 Mely Moss
Threeunderthrufive 6bg Paul Nicholls h5-4-0 (141) 143
Shantou (Kaldou Star){8-c}(1.80) 0.5 Benruben 2/2 Sanouva 2/2 Nicknos
Southfield Harvest 7bg Paul Nicholls h5-1-4 (138) 140 c1-1-0 (138) 142
Kayf Tara (Garde Royale){19-a}(0.86) 0.5 Southfield Theatre 0.5 Southfield Vic 3/3 Madison du Berlais
McFabulous 7bg Paul Nicholls h9-4-3 (153) 159
Milan (Beneficial){1-h}(0.48) 0.5 Waiting Patiently 2/1 Yankee Jamie 4/4 Ballynagour
Ballyadam 6bg Henry De Bromhead p1-1-0 h6-2-2 (148) 147
Fame And Glory (Bob Back){23-a}(0.53) 0.5 Legal Eyes 3/1 Commercial Artist 3/1 Mass Appeal
Gin On Lime 5bm Henry De Bromhead h3-1-1 c6-3-2 (137) 143
Doctor Dino (Bateau Rouge){u}(x) 0.5 Eminence Rouge 4/1 Cyborgo 4/1 Hors La Loi III
Fakiera 6bbg Mrs Denise Foster h8-2-4 (144) 145
Cokoriko (Network){10-e}(0.23) 4/1 Acajou III 5/1 El Paso III 5/1 Hindiana
Sir Gerhard 6bg W P Mullins p1-1-0 h0-0-0
Jeremy (Authorized){21-a}(1.15) no chase relatives
Farouk d'Alene 6bg Mrs Denise Foster p1-1-0 h3-2-0 (140) 146
Racinger (Ragmar){u}(0.71) 3/1 Viva Bella 3/2 Triolo d'Alene 4/2 Val d'Alene
Mister Coffey 6bg Nicky Henderson h6-2-2 (138) 142
Authorized (Anabaa){16-c}(0.78) 0.5 Myboy (2nd Listed Chase)
Abacadabras 7bg Mrs Denise Foster h12-5-4 (158) 160
Davidoff (Cadoudal){16-c}(0.57) 2/1 Like A Duke 3/1 Poliantas 5/2 Ouiton
Aspire Tower 5bg Henry De Bromhead h8-3-2 (159) 161
Born To Sea (Pivotal){8-i}(2.56) no chase relatives
Flash Collonges 6bg Paul Nicholls h5-3-1 (145) 147
Saddler Maker (Apple Tree){u}(1.00) 0.5 Cesar Collonges 2/1 Neptune Collonges 4/3 Hussard Collonges
Streets Of Doyen 7bg John C McConnell h14-4-2 (139) 140 c1-1-0 (-) 140
Doyen (Satco){8-d}(0.71) 0.5 Tinkers Hill Tommy 2/1 Sackville 2/2 Beroni
Boothill 6bbg Harry Fry p2-0-2 h1-1-0 (137) 132
Presenting (Accordion){14-a}(0.40) 2/1 Frantic Tan 2/1 Irish Raptor 4/2 Black Humour
Soaring Glory 6bg Jonjo O'Neill h6-2-2 (143) 146
Fame And Glory (Saddlers' Hall){14-f}(0.49) 0.5 Three Stars 2/1 Victor Hewgo 3/1 Direct Route
Danny Kirwan 8bg Paul Nicholls p1-1-0 h8-2-3 (133) 137
Scorpion (Saint des Saints){31}(0.60) 0.5 Appreciate It 2/1 Bingo Bell 5/5 Pindare
Jason The Militant 7bg Henry De Bromhead h9-3-3 (157) 160
Sans Frontieres (Desert King){25}(0.55) 4/4 Cloudy Dream 5/5 Total Recall 5/5 Fair Along

I have also done tables for the sires and trainers listed above (including the disgraced Gordon Elliott) with a view to showing their respective records with chasers and hurdlers, along with Impact Values which may indicate whether an entity is more adept at one discipline over another.

These figures were taken from the Racing Post site and show records from the past five years from the countries in which they are based. As such, Willie Mullins' results at Cheltenham won't be included, nor will Paul Nicholls' at Punchestown.
5TXTn7C.png


Sires are also from RP but will generally include all runners in Britain and Ireland. The exceptions, owing to limited data, are Brave Mansonnien* (for whom French results were included with British and Irish ones) and Timos** whose results were drawn entirely from French races... one horse at a time... because France Galop does not split the information automatically and while France Sire might, I can't afford to chance a subscription to find out for the purposes of this one day's work...

drUz2ER.png
 
Kotkijet I feel like I need to sign up to a dosage index training course!

What do the figures 0.5 and 4/1 mean? I'm guessing 0.5 a half brother/sister? Can't work out the 4/1 though.


Gin On Lime 5bm Henry De Bromhead h3-1-1 c6-3-2 (137) 143 Doctor Dino (Bateau Rouge){u}(x) 0.5 Eminence Rouge 4/1 Cyborgo 4/1 Hors La Loi III

Apologies if you've already explained this in other posts
 
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Hi FM

Do dosage indexes are calculated by establishing where and how many chefs-de-race appear on a horse's pedigree. Chefs-de-race are sires who not only have a great influence on their breed, but their influence can also be categorised by the type of progeny they produce be they precocious speedy sorts or those given to stamina. Each chef-de-race is assigned one or two categories (aptitudinal groups) according to the nature of their influence. These are;-

Brilliant - Nunthorpe/Prix de l'Abbaye
Intermediate
Classic
Solid
Professional - Ascot Gold Cup/Prix du Cadran

Should such sires appear on a horse's pedigree, points are allocated based on the proximity. Sires get 16, grandsires 8, great grandsires 4 and fourth sires 2. Points are split if the sire has multiple categories. The points are tallied and the sum total of brilliant and intermediate, plus half of classic, is divided by half of classic plus solid and professional. The result will be the dosage index. The higher the dosage index, the greater the propensity for speed. The lower the dosage index, the greater the propensity for stamina. In theory of course...

We can use My Drogo as a demonstration on how we reach the Dosage Index.

Here is his pedigree with the chefs-de-race highlighted.
v9jvsbm.png


And here is the chefs-de-race list with the above influences also highlighted.

SzbRK4h.jpg


So let's start with the first generation. Milan is not a chef-de-race - which ties into one of the many limitations of the Dosage Index system. While Milan is patently a strong stamina influence, he is not prolific enough on the flat, nor impactful enough on the breed in general, to warrant a place on the list. Incidentally, another notable absentee is Danehill whose impact on the breed has been emphatic. Nevertheless, since his aptitudinal scope is so broad (his offspring encompasses such a diverse range as to include Mozart, Rock Of Gibraltar, Duke Of Marmalade, North Light and Westerner), he could not be placed in any one or two category.

OK, so sire Milan = 0
Grandsires. Sadlers Wells is in C and S so the 8 points are split between the two. Running total;-

B-I-C-S-P
0-0-4-4-0

Great grandsires. Northern Dancer [BC] and Darshaan . 4 points each. Northern Dancer's split between B&C, Darshaan's S gets all 4.

B-I-C-S-P
2-0-6-8-0

Fourth sires. Shirley Heights [CP] and Northern Dancer [BC]. 2 points each. Both split.

B-I-C-S-P
3-0-8-8-1

First half
3+0+4 = 7
Second half
4+8+1= 13

7/13 = 0.53846...

My Drogo's DI - 0.54

As this is a low DI, due largely to the influences of Sadler's Wells and Darshaan, My Drogo is more likely to be a staying type than a sprinter.

Broadly speaking, DI is more applicable to the flat than jumps, largely due to the notion that speed generally gives way for stamina as a horse matures - as discussed in the above posts.

As for the 0.5, 4/1 etc. This is something I have come up with myself as a means of quickly showing how closely related one horse is to another on the damline. The first figure denotes "the x dam is" and the second figure denotes "the x dam of". So instead of saying such a horse's granddam is out of a sister to the great granddam of another such horse, I just write 4/4 (I think... I've confused myself trying to work out how these imaginary horses are related which is why I find the number system so useful).

So 0.5 is indeed half-sibling. 1/1 is full-sibling. 1/0 will be the dam - the first dam is - so

My Drogo 1/0 My Petra = My Petra is My Drogo's dam.

From there, 2/1 would be the second dam is the first dam of.

Monmiral 2/1 La Landiere = Monmiral's granddam is the dam of La Landiere / Monmiral's dam is a sibling of La Landiere / La Landiere is Monmiral's Auntie.

Being a little more adventurous, using this table, we can see that Faugheen is related to Rocky Creek. But instead of going through the rigmarole of describing their relationship, it is simpler to just pinpoint the common ancestor on the damline which would be Marteline. Since he is Faugheen's fifth dam, and Rocky Creek's fourth dam, Faugheen 5/4 Rocky Creek.

1ZdN9mi.png
 
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