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2022 Novice Chase Division

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He looks a real star doesn't he. Hopefully Skelton doesn't mess up with his horses at the fez like this year. He'll go wherever Bollinger doesn't I suspect. Marsh for me
 
Pendil said:
Ahoy Senor is 50/1 for the RSA with B365 vs Bravemansgame still @ 12/1
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That’s one of those head scratching price comparisons where the market disrespects the less fashionable yard.
I thought Ahoy Senor won fair and square yesterday and was full value, BMG may well be suffering the after effects of Cheltenham but I could only back the 50/1 of the two....
 
Istabraq said:
That’s one of those head scratching price comparisons where the market disrespects the less fashionable yard.
I thought Ahoy Senor won fair and square yesterday and was full value, BMG may well be suffering the after effects of Cheltenham but I could only back the 50/1 of the two....
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It generally pays to ignore Aintree form for next years Festival.

I’m not going to say Bravemansgame will win the RSA, but if both horses line up I’d be confident that BMG is the one contending and Ahoy Senor either proves not good enough to line up or is out with the washing.

So many times we see horses that ran in graded races at Cheltenham underwhelm at Aintree. I’d save them and travel them over to Ireland instead. More recovery time and better prize money always makes me wonder why UK trainers take the lazy route to Aintree instead.
 
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Spectre said:
It generally pays to ignore Aintree form for next years Festival.

I’m not going to say Bravemansgame will win the RSA, but if both horses line up I’d be confident that BMG is the one contending and Ahoy Senor either proves not good enough to line up or is out with the washing.

So many times we see horses that ran in graded races at Cheltenham underwhelm at Aintree. I’d save them and travel them over to Ireland instead. More recovery time and better prize money always makes me wonder why UK trainers take the lazy route to Aintree instead.
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BMG has now been soundly beaten the last twice, I wouldn’t be in a rush to get with him for a Cheltenham novice chase next year, he may well improve for a fence but he’ll not only need to he’ll also need others to defect or misfire.
He was hailed the second coming and may well still end up with a long a successful career picking up some nice pots, but I’d be fairly sure the last 24 days have been something of a reality check for Nicholls and his team...
 
Istabraq said:
BMG has now been soundly beaten the last twice, I wouldn’t be in a rush to get with him for a Cheltenham novice chase next year, he may well improve for a fence but he’ll not only need to he’ll also need others to defect or misfire.
He was hailed the second coming and may well still end up with a long a successful career picking up some nice pots, but I’d be fairly sure the last 24 days have been something of a reality check for Nicholls and his team...
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Maybe the ground is the reason ? Both Cheltenham and Aintree were on the quick side. Perhaps he is better with a bit of dig? Just a thought
 
Lobos said:
Maybe the ground is the reason ? Both Cheltenham and Aintree were on the quick side. Perhaps he is better with a bit of dig? Just a thought
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If ground is the reason for the failures and possible underperforming then no-one should be considering a bet for about 340 days...

Just checked, his three wins earlier in the season all came with Good to soft in the description, the same ground he encountered at Cheltenham and Aintree
 
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Istabraq said:
BMG has now been soundly beaten the last twice, I wouldn’t be in a rush to get with him for a Cheltenham novice chase next year, he may well improve for a fence but he’ll not only need to he’ll also need others to defect or misfire.
He was hailed the second coming and may well still end up with a long a successful career picking up some nice pots, but I’d be fairly sure the last 24 days have been something of a reality check for Nicholls and his team...
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BMG finished third in a very good Ballymore. He’s built for fences, is likely to still fill out and strengthen up, and will improve for stepping up to three miles. He was beaten by ‘quicker’ horses at Cheltenham, and he will want more of a test next season. Plus his trainer knows what it takes to win an RSA. In addition, almost every horse that had a tough race at the Festival underperformed at Aintree. I think you’re writing him off too easily Istabraq.
 
Spectre said:
BMG finished third in a very good Ballymore. He’s built for fences, is likely to still fill out and strengthen up, and will improve for stepping up to three miles. He was beaten by ‘quicker’ horses at Cheltenham, and he will want more of a test next season. Plus his trainer knows what it takes to win an RSA. In addition, almost every horse that had a tough race at the Festival underperformed at Aintree. I think you’re writing him off too easily Istabraq.
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I haven’t written him off Spectre, I’ve said he could well improve for a fence and have a long and successful career, right now I just think there are better horses around and something will need to happen to them for BMG to be a festival G1 winner.
Time will tell....
 
Hes certainly not one to write off

But at the same time I wouldnt be backing him at the General 10/1-12/1 that is available

not when Gaillard du mesnil who finished ahead of him at Cheltenham despite still looking very green and immature is available at 33/1
 
Istabraq said:
If ground is the reason for the failures and possible underperforming then no-one should be considering a bet for about 340 days...

Just checked, his three wins earlier in the season all came with Good to soft in the description, the same ground he encountered at Cheltenham and Aintree
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The difference being they weren't Championship races though. Could be that he just needs a fence to reach his full potential.
 
Gaillard du Mesnil many like on here, he started on the flat/bumper as many ex French do but can anyone enlighten me to an Rsa winner who has started on the flat and not via PTP/Bumpers/French hurdles. It does note NH flat for him so has there been any French that have come from that path and not hurdling over there?

It got me thinking a little so had a flick past through the last 11 renewals, three French breeds have gone close 2019(Delta Work), 2017(Whisper), 2014(Smad Palace). Delta & Smad did appear to start out in French bumpers/flat(smad even had a couple of hurdle spins over there) so it's not they they can't go close but i was surprised how many runners in total are traditional IRE breeds.

Last 11 renewals total runners = 113
Irish/Gb runners= 84 74%
Top 3 finishes from runners 29/84 (34%)

FR runners= 29 26%
Top 3 finishes from runners 4/29 (13%)

Top 3 total (32)/113

2021- 6 runners of which 1 were FR Ur
2020- 10 runners of which 2 were FR Allaho 3rd, one other fell
2019- 12 runners Delta work only runner 3rd
2018- 10 runners 5 runners were FR only one finished (5th)
2017- 12 runners 4 runners were FR Whisper was a nose 2nd
2016- 8 runners 3 runners were 5th was best position
2015- 8 runners 1 runner finished 4th
2014-15 runners 5 runners were FR which Smad palace was a nose 2nd
2013- 11 runners 3 runners were FR 4th was best position
2012- 9 runners 2 runners were FR 4th was best position
2011-12 runners 2 runners were FR neither finished

Ramblings to many but surprised me a little even thou someone on here has probably highlighted this or similar before.
 
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Outlaw said:
Gaillard du Mesnil many like on here, he started on the flat/bumper as many ex French do but can anyone enlighten me to an Rsa winner who has started on the flat and not via PTP/Bumpers/French hurdles. It does note NH flat for him so has there been any French that have come from that path and not hurdling over there?

It got me thinking a little so had a flick past through the last 11 renewals, three French breeds have gone close 2019(Delta Work), 2017(Whisper), 2014(Smad Palace). Delta & Smad did appear to start out in French bumpers/flat(smad even had a couple of hurdle spins over there) so it's not they they can't go close but i was surprised how many runners in total are traditional IRE breeds.

Last 11 renewals total runners = 113
Irish/Gb runners= 84 74%
Top 3 finishes from runners 29/84 (34%)

FR runners= 29 26%
Top 3 finishes from runners 4/29 (13%)

Top 3 total (33) 33/113

2021- 6 runners of which 1 were FR Ur
2020- 10 runners of which 2 were FR Allaho 3rd, one other fell
2019- 12 runners Delta work only runner 3rd
2018- 10 runners 5 runners were FR only one finished (5th)
2017- 12 runners 4 runners were FR Whisper was a nose 2nd
2016- 8 runners 3 runners were 5th was best position
2015- 8 runners 1 runner finished 4th
2014-15 runners 5 runners were FR which Smad palace was a nose 2nd
2013- 11 runners 3 runners were FR 4th was best position
2012- 9 runners 2 runners were FR 4th was best position
2011-12 runners 2 runners were FR neither finished

Ramblings to many but surprised me a little even thou someone on here has probably highlighted this or similar before.
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He’s also only going to be a 6 year old next year which is another negative.
 
Outlaw said:
Gaillard du Mesnil many like on here, he started on the flat/bumper as many ex French do but can anyone enlighten me to an Rsa winner who has started on the flat and not via PTP/Bumpers/French hurdles. It does note NH flat for him so has there been any French that have come from that path and not hurdling over there?
Click to expand...

The lack of French bred winners in general is a clear trend, my personal belief is that French horses are trained harder younger and generally peak at around 5/6 possibly 7, there won't be many 9 and 10yo French breds who are at the peak of their abilities in the way IRE/UK bred horses are.
The 3m (ex RSA) route usually comes in a UK/Ire horses third season after bumper and novice hurdle campaigns, and I'm guessing that many French horses are five years into their career and could either be regressing early, or racing/injuries taking its' toll etc, who knows but there is a trend.
Worth also considering they are schooled over brush hurdles at 2 and fences at 3, they are generally well ahead of ours, but they naturally regress before ours, a fit healthy French bred in double digit years running well is a rare thing...
 
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Appreciate It very popular today. Into 11/4 in several places today. Very short !
 
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