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2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

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Galvin was a gift last year, in respect that we were given the target and the news he wouldn't run again, immediately after his run at Cheltenham in the Autumn.
In this division, it's unlikely we'll get many trainers name checking any specific race for a novice as a seasonal target in stable tours or anywhere else. It's rare that it happens.

Even Gobshite Gordon will probably be quieter this year, seeing as he's been neutered, and he's gone all sorry eyed.


I'd like to think so, but there won't be many flagging this race so far out.
 
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Spectre said:
Ontheropes vs Run Wild Fred.

What wins if it's a head and not heart decision?
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Based on what we've seen OTR - so I need to get him onside somehow.

However, I do feel like RWF ran with the handbrake on for half of last season so it's very possible he could put in a similarly impressive performance to OTR at some point and swing the balance back in his favour. Regardless, I'm jealous of those of you who have both!
 
That Horse said:
He's 12/1 any race with WH. I took that for now given I'd missed the bigger prices and whilst I'm still unsure he's going to NH chase. I'd definitely top up with cashout if a confirmed target was known, won very well yesterday
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Where else would you expect him to go at Cheltenham other than the NHC? For me that's the only Fez race he's likely to turn up in. That or nothing.
 
Quevega said:
Galvin was a gift last year, in respect that we were given the target and the news he wouldn't run again, immediately after his run at Cheltenham in the Autumn.
In this division, it's unlikely we'll get many trainers name checking any specific race for a novice as a seasonal target in stable tours or anywhere else. It's rare that it happens.

Even Gobshite Gordon will probably be quieter this year, seeing as he's been neutered, and he's gone all sorry eyed.


I'd like to think so, but there won't be many flagging this race so far out.
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Agree. Its up to us brave souls to dig them out. I'm sure between us we'll crack it.
 
Lobos said:
Where else would you expect him to go at Cheltenham other than the NHC? For me that's the only Fez race he's likely to turn up in. That or nothing.
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I'm perhaps swayed by the write up in the RP analysis after his win yesterday about following the same path as total recall to the Hennessey who then went to the gold cup.

Coupled with no obvious Mullins gold cup candidate outside of Al Boum, I'm probably putting two and two together and coming up with -33 but given he's 12/1 in most places for just the NH chase, 12/1 AR was more appealing to me.
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That Horse said:
I'm perhaps swayed by the write up in the RP analysis after his win yesterday about following the same path as total recall to the Hennessey who then went to the gold cup.

Coupled with no obvious Mullins gold cup candidate outside of Al Boum, I'm probably putting two and two together and coming up with -33 but given he's 12/1 in most places for just the NH chase, 12/1 AR was more appealing to me.
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Gotcha. As the TWAR odds are the same then yeah, can see why you went that route completely. GC though........nah.
 
Lobos said:
Gotcha. As the TWAR odds are the same then yeah, can see why you went that route completely. GC though........nah.
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You're most likely correct.

GC 2022 placings; Elimay, Galvin, Ontheropes :welcoming:
 
That Horse said:
You're most likely correct.

GC 2022 placings; Elimay, Galvin, Ontheropes :welcoming:
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Now that we know OTR revised rating perhaps the GC will be on the agenda !
 
That Horse said:
I'm perhaps swayed by the write up in the RP analysis after his win yesterday about following the same path as total recall to the Hennessey who then went to the gold cup.

Coupled with no obvious Mullins gold cup candidate outside of Al Boum, I'm probably putting two and two together and coming up with -33 but given he's 12/1 in most places for just the NH chase, 12/1 AR was more appealing to me.
​​​​​​
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It was an obvious comparison to make though by the RP.
Total Recall was not a novice. Which I think is key.
He also ran in the Gold cup as a prep for the National, which was the target immediately mentioned after he won the Hennessy.
They also ran over hurdles in Feb to protect his mark.

This horse could easily follow a similar path, but he also has the option of the NH chase as a prep for the National.
And most importantly he has to be declared and run in the Ladbrokes/Hennessy first, and to be entered for the Gold Cup, he'd probably have to win the Hennessy also, to even be considered for the GC.

I have backed him for any race and the NH chase, so have edged my bets a bit, and part of this was because he was running in the Munster National off 12lbs higher than Total Recall. So a win would mean they may get more ambitious, but I still think that the NH chase would be 90% the most likely race, with the GC and RSA (Soft ground) the other options if he turns out a lot better.
A very unlikely but possible option would be the pertemps, if Willie wanted a prep run around the time of Cheltenham and a qualifier in Ireland before that before the weights are announced. The reason this is unlikely is his mark may not be great (close to his chase mark), and 2 hurdle runs as a prep for the National is not ideal. But it's been done before.
He could also run in the Ultima, but this is least likely based on Willie's habits, but he may want a big field experience again (depending on the character of the horse). You never know.

This assumes he turns up at Cheltenham at all (but it was mentioned last year)

The other thing in this horse's favour is that I don't see many other Novices Willie has that would get qualified with enough experience for the amateur race either, and both him and Patrick have mentioned on several occasions in recent years about the need for experienced battle hardened types for the NH chase. This horse fits that bill perfectly.
 
152 seems like quite a hike even though it was clear he had more under the bonnet.

Fingers crossed he keep the wheels on and goes to the race we know he should in March :beguiled:

PS, can't think of any other CPS horses for it, so i wonder given he's now a "152" horse does the RSA come into the reckoning....CPS might just want a runner there. Wouldn't seem a good idea if they want a winner but..
 
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jack1092 said:
152 seems like quite a hike even though it was clear he had more under the bonnet.

Fingers crossed he keep the wheels on and goes to the race we know he should in March :beguiled:

PS, can't think of any other CPS horses for it, so i wonder given he's now a "152" horse does the RSA come into the reckoning....CPS might just want a runner there. Wouldn't seem a good idea if they want a winner but..
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Willies got 14 horses for the RSA already so I can't see that happening. NHC is his race.
 
Lobos said:
Willies got 14 horses for the RSA already so I can't see that happening. NHC is his race.
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I can't either, but since we are running through his options and all that......with 152, he doesn't need to "improve" a lot more to contend with recent winners of the race. Only takes an injury or two and things can change quick.
 
Didnt OTR receive a bit of weight though? I didnt see the weights but id imagine he was low?
 
jack1092 said:
I can't either, but since we are running through his options and all that......with 152, he doesn't need to "improve" a lot more to contend with recent winners of the race. Only takes an injury or two and things can change quick.
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152 is better than most NHC winners

Only this year.....

Galvin was 152 on the day he won
Next Destination was 153 when he ran 2nd
Escaria Ten was 147 on 3rd.
 
Ontheropes could hardly fit the criteria of a National Hunt Chase winner more perfectly.

From my diary:
  • Second season novices have an exceptional record.
  • If not a second season novice will likely have had plenty of experience and may be older
  • Generally out early in the season gaining experience
  • The race cut up badly through injury and withdrawals in 2019 and 2020, but either side the race was won by horses in the 150's.
  • Eight of the last ten rated 145+ going in to the race. In the last eight only Ravenhill not 145+ when the three at the top of the market didn't make the Festival.
  • The last two winners Galvin and Ravenhill (both Elliott) had early chase campaigns and were then put away for the Festival
 
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Spectre said:
Ontheropes could hardly fit the criteria of a National Hunt Chase winner more perfectly.

From my diary:
  • Second season novices have an exceptional record.
  • If not a second season novice will likely have had plenty of experience and may be older
  • Generally out early in the season gaining experience
  • The race cut up badly through injury and withdrawals in 2019 and 2020, but either side the race was won by horses in the 150's.
  • Eight of the last ten rated 145+ going in to the race. In the last eight only Ravenhill not 145+ when the three at the top of the market didn't make the Festival.
  • The last two winners Galvin and Ravenhill (both Elliott) had early chase campaigns and were then put away for the Festival
Click to expand...

His profile is really good for the race spectre and it was you that talked me into backing him before he ran despite reservations about the length of time off so cheers. Him and run wild fred both tick nearly all the boxes of what you’d look for in a horse for this race, hopefully the latter will just get some of the much needed course experience at either the October or November meeting and if he doesn’t I would say this race is probably not the plan
 
Spectre said:
Ontheropes could hardly fit the criteria of a National Hunt Chase winner more perfectly.

From my diary:
  • Second season novices have an exceptional record.
  • If not a second season novice will likely have had plenty of experience and may be older
  • Generally out early in the season gaining experience
  • The race cut up badly through injury and withdrawals in 2019 and 2020, but either side the race was won by horses in the 150's.
  • Eight of the last ten rated 145+ going in to the race. In the last eight only Ravenhill not 145+ when the three at the top of the market didn't make the Festival.
  • The last two winners Galvin and Ravenhill (both Elliott) had early chase campaigns and were then put away for the Festival
Click to expand...

This is a fantastic post Spectre, thank you.
 
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