2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Ray]

Im of the opinion now that maybe gars de sceaux will have more class then running here? My initial thoughts on him were the rsa and that stable tour would say that is accurate, i think hes a dark horse for sure

 

[Winging The Last]

Im of the opinion now that maybe gars de sceaux will have more class then running here? My initial thoughts on him were the rsa and that stable tour would say that is accurate, i think hes a dark horse for sure

I think we will get a big hint to who he thinks is is RSA horse next week when we see the the entries and decs for the beginners chase at Galway which Gordon likes to start his RSA horses in

 

[Lobos]

Im of the opinion now that maybe gars de sceaux will have more class then running here? My initial thoughts on him were the rsa and that stable tour would say that is accurate, i think hes a dark horse for sure

I'm with you on this one Ray. The quote does sway you that way.

 

[The King Pimm]

I can’t bring myself to TKP, was all over him for the potato race last season and he travelled like the winner to the last, didn’t look entirely in love with the hill for me.
Haven’t written him off and clearly there was a great deal of confidence in him that day but I’d need to see him go through with an effort or two before I part with any cash…

Stattler was one of my biggest novice bets last Festival, the hype and confidence in the build up I thought he was a certainty but I agree he just seemed to get lost up the hill. Bing a Mullins/Ronnie Bartlett combo I was expecting a lot of hype pre national hunt season but no ones mentioning him and he’s still favourite!!

 

[The King Pimm]

You make a good point TKP.

I nailed my colours to Run Wild Fred early on but have been wrestling with idea of also having a decent bet on Ontheropes despite having missed the early price.

The trouble is - what happens if Willie sends Stattler here which seems highly likely?

If that happens will Willie also run Ontheropes? I don't think so.

For the last 3 years Willie's only had one runner in the NHC.

Over the last 10 years he's only once saddled 2 of the market leaders in the race. That was back in 2012 when Allee Garde went off 6-1 second favourite and Soll was 8-1 joint fourth favourite.

Five of his 15 runners in the NHC over the last 10 years have had a starting price of 14-1 or bigger. I get the impression it's a race where Willie might run some of his slow boats to give them a speculative back-door route into the Cheltenham Festival - but without seriously thinking they will win it.

Either Ontheropes or Stattler could go off favourite if they line up but I can't see them taking each other on here.

And as Saxon Warrior points out in his Willie analysis, Stattler's hurdling profile - ran well in the AB and the season ending 3-mile novice hurdle at Punchestown - fits the bill perfectly for a Mullins NHC contender.

It's been discussed in these pages that Ontheropes does have other options - the Hennessy, Grand National, maybe even the Gold Cup although I can't quite see that happening. He may also be a bit fragile.

Whereas the NHC does seem to be the obvious career path for Stattler. Hurdles form suggests he could be plenty good enough for this.

So which one will Patrick be riding in March?

I reckon it's more likely to be Stattler who is in the same ownership as this year's winner Galvin. I imagine he'd be up for winning the same Festival race two years in aa row.

But having said all this I still can't escape the notion I should be backing Ontheropes.

I was fortunate to get Ontheropes covered before yesterday’s impressive seasonal debut. I had never noticed Willie Mullins trends of only having one runner in the Arkle & NHC until Saxon and yourself pointed it out. It’s bizarre considering the quality he has at his disposal but you’ve got to take it as a massive confidence whoever does end up representing the yard.

 

[charlie]

Elliott on The Bosses Oscar

He’s a lovely horse that we are looking forward to seeing how he gets on over fences. He made a good start over them at Listowel, he just needed the run and got tired. He could be a horse for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Lovely, thanks for posting.

I don’t think OTR backers should be worried about Stattler but then I’ve never really rated him, so can probably be ignored :courage:

 

[Lobos]

​​​​​​Looks like we've got Godons 4 miler as well now then with him confirming The Bosses Oscar is heading that way (Thanks Saxon) .Its unusual for him to send more than 1 to the race so we can just top up on him and Mullins horse Ontheropes between now and March and we should be q​​​​​​uids in :angel:

 

[Lbur4288]

With Ontheropes being so well supported on here, I'm keen to know thoughts on Capodanno. I think he ticks a lot of boxes but I'm not sure if it's something Willie might throw two darts at.

 

[Zachx02]

With Ontheropes being so well supported on here, I'm keen to know thoughts on Capodanno. I think he ticks a lot of boxes but I'm not sure if it's something Willie might throw two darts at.

If I recall he was talked up here for it a few months ago, I have free bet on him at 25/1 personally, looks a good type

 

[Eudipe]

Elliott on The Bosses Oscar

I seem to remember a very similar line from him on RWF this time last year. He was clearly plotted for a mark thereafter.

 

[charlie]

I seem to remember a very similar line from him on RWF this time last year. He was clearly plotted for a mark thereafter.

MOL can take the blame for that.

Hearing him name the race as he did with Galvin last year is good news, now just needs that Cheltenham Dec!

 

[hardheld]

Just watch the Bosses Oscar beginners chase, no doubting his ability, but noticed he jumped out to the right a lot. Needs to jump better, hopefully get entered in cheltenham in a few weeks

 

[HoldenTheReins]

Are people swayed more to The Bosses Oscar as he has course form compared to Ontheropes?

 

[Quevega]

Are people swayed more to The Bosses Oscar as he has course form compared to Ontheropes?

Not me, and different course really as well. Old v New.
The chasing experience, or lack of would be more of a comparison. Where I'd give OTR the edge.

Bosses will not fit the normal Elliott successful route to this race, as he's either going to be running through the Winter or won't have many runs behind him at all.
Worth having on side though as he's trained by the right guy, is talented enough on his hurdle form and is a Cheltenham regular, right course or not, and has been earmarked for the race also. The last point made me back him last night.

 

[Lobos]

Are people swayed more to The Bosses Oscar as he has course form compared to Ontheropes?

Festival form maybe. At least we know he is at the top of his game in the Spring whereas some horses have had enough by then.

 

[jack1092]

Are people swayed more to The Bosses Oscar as he has course form compared to Ontheropes?

Never been TBO's biggest fan, was openly against him on the threads last year- but as it's already been said, he's with the right man and can perform well in Spring which helps.

The main worry i have with OTRs is the fact he obviously hasn't been the easiest to train in the past.

Both turn up on the day i like OTRs more, but that still has to happen.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I seem to remember a very similar line from him on RWF this time last year. He was clearly plotted for a mark thereafter.

But TBO is 154 for Hurdles in the UK.
Way more than RWF was.
TBO has been to two Cheltenhams
RWF none

Very easy to know that UK capper isn't going to give TBO a low mark in chases, as they will start with his hurdles mark from the Pertemps.

 

[Eudipe]

But RBO is 154 for Hurdles in the UK.
Way more than RWF was.
TBO has been to two Cheltenhams
RWF none

Very easy to know that UK capper isn't going to give TBO a low mark in chases, as they will start with his hurdles mark from the Pertemps.

Was thinking more along the lines of the Irish Grand National.

 

[robith]

Are people swayed more to The Bosses Oscar as he has course form compared to Ontheropes?

From Gaultstats on course form - important but not an insurmountable barrier:

"9 from last 14 had competed in at least one Cheltenham chase before. All of those bar Tiger Roll and Minella Rocco placed at least once. Tiger Roll finished 3rd of six in a course novice chase but had achieved two previous course wins including a Triumph hurdle. Rocco had two previous attempts at course chases. Didn't take to it on either occasion. Maybe soft ground? Rathvinden, 3rd in Ballymore. Le Breuil had been twice second in on course chases. Ravenhill, Midnight Prayer, Back In Focus and Old Benny had never been here before."

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Are people swayed more to The Bosses Oscar as he has course form compared to Ontheropes?

He’s likely to have Jamie Codd on board, which gives him at least a 10 length advantage!