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2022 Gold Cup

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Istabraq said:
Wasn’t that long ago that Elliott was able to
book a schooling run at the XC course for a few of his, I remember him doing this with Cause of Causes to great effect a few years ago so I wouldn’t rule it out entirely even if I’m sure the relationship between course management and the trainer was stronger then
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The difference is though that both Tiger and Cause of Causes were rated a fair bit lower than Galvin currently is when they were considered for the XC route. Neither would have been talked up as possible GC horses and both had fallen out of love with racing at the time which is why they were sent XC racing as it was hoped it would stimulate them. Galvin has no such issues having rattled off 6 on the bounce and is a very straight forward horse to train. I've never got the XCC thingy with him and am against it even more after today.
 
charlie said:
Very good point, he loves doing this. I’ll find out more on what the protocols on this are cause that will have to be organised well in advance
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Thought it usually centered around one of the horse sales at Cheltenham? They usually have one in Jan and in Feb at the track. He would bring over a few horses to sell or to school and come home with the horseboxes full.
 
Lobos said:
Has Gordon said the XC would be a perfect prep for Galvin?? If so, I've missed that completely. Plenty on here reckon Eklat De Rire could be a GC horse. He's currently rated 2lbs behind Galvin and that could rise to 6/7lbs plus. EDR has got a lot more to prove imo .
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EDR was 66s though, Galvin 40s. As FF has said Galvin's shown a lot more of his hand, some will say that's a good thing. On a direct line through Galvin>Escaria Ten there's 1.25Ls between Galvin and EDR....
 
Lobos said:
The difference is though that both Tiger and Cause of Causes were rated a fair bit lower than Galvin currently is when they were considered for the XC route. Neither would have been talked up as possible GC horses and both had fallen out of love with racing at the time which is why they were sent XC racing as it was hoped it would stimulate them. Galvin has no such issues having rattled off 6 on the bounce and is a very straight forward horse to train. I've never got the XCC thingy with him and am against it even more after today.
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Tiger Roll 151 Galvin 154 Lobos!

Agree on the other points though.

Personally think Gordie's going to let Galvin lead him to his level.
 
jack1092 said:
Tiger Roll 151 Galvin 154 Lobos!

Agree on the other points though.

Personally think Gordie's going to let Galvin lead him to his level.
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Nearer 160 now Jack and could be higher than that come March.
 
jack1092 said:
Yes, but your point relating to COC + TR being rated a lot lower when they decided the route....is what i was getting at :strawberry:
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COC (Brilliant) was about a stone lower , Tiger not so much. My main point though is Galvin has not fallen out of love with racing like those two had at the time. Galvin just doesn't need to go XCC.
 
Lobos said:
COC (Brilliant) was about a stone lower , Tiger not so much. My main point though is Galvin has not fallen out of love with racing like those two had at the time. Galvin just doesn't need to go XCC.
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Time will tell. We're at that frustrating point of the season where nothing is racing competitively enough for sentences like the above to hold much weight, even though you could very well be right in time. Personally, I don't think Galvin will cut the mustard at the very top level and can envisage a scenario of him going off really short in a shit hot race and being blown away, and thats that. It could easily go the other way though, we just don't know, hence why calling race planning and placing ante post bets (of which I've done both so am probably a hypocrite) are fraught with risk.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
He looks very good on decent ground.

He can't easily hide anything on ground that suits him.

I think now, he's a Grade 1 runner next start, nowhere near a XC runner next up.

And I only see him having one more run before the ground usually changes and he rests up until March.

If that's the case, then he probably doesn't get a XC run in Cheltenham in November or December.

I don't think theres much chance that Gordon runs him in the XC in March if he hasn't ran over the track in November or December.

For me, he needs to run in a XC Handicap at Cheltenham in November (or Dec) to be a runner there in March.

We will know that soon enough, so not long to wait.
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This is where I am, having only backed for the x country. Couldn't give a shit about the other races,
There is a chance that he runs at down royal and then cheltenham, before being put away as I think theirs at least 2 weeks between.
But assuming he runs at down royal, then we may know by that stage. On his performance.
 
Just a few observations on Galvin (who I've backed for the GC) and Eklat De Rire who I had a look at yesterday and decided not to back.

Galvin has finished strongly in both of his chase runs over 3 miles or more at Cheltenham. The Punchestown win yesterday was similar in style. He's not electric but he has a turn of foot and stays on well to the line.

It was the same story when he tasted defeat by 3l over 2m 4f at last year's Festival. He couldn't catch Imperial Aura - fancied by some for this year's Ryanair - but pulled 9 lengths clear of the third horse.

So if Galvin lines up in the GC which horse is going to set a hot enough pace to ensure he's not tucked in behind the leaders when they come to the second last?

This is where Monkfish's demise may provide a significant boost to Galvin's chance in terms of how the race will be run.

None of the five market leaders have been confirmed front runners at the Cheltenham Festival. Will there be another horse in the race good enough to burn off the field and still be at the head of affairs coming down the hill on the final circuit? I doubt it.

But if Galvin is within 4 or 5 lengths of the lead coming to the second last he will be staying on resolutely up the hill while some may be crying enough.

Will he be good enough to win?

If your life depended on it your current pick would have to be Minella Indo and A Plus Tard. The market has got it right.

But as a 40-1 shot Galvin has plenty going for him as an each way bet:

He performs well on the track.
He has proved he stays the trip and is probably an improved horse over an extended 3 miles.
The race may well be run to suit him - with an average pace and a far from stellar line-up which I don't think will include Envoi Allen after reading Henry's comments.
He will be ridden by one of the best in the business when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.
He's also a good age for the GC and will probably have a light campaign - missing the DRF and coming to Cheltenham a fresh horse.

Some people have highlighted Galvin's jumping as a problem. Sure, it's not perfect but it hasn't stopped him finishing 211 at Cheltenham over fences.

Eklat De Rire is certainly a horse with plenty of potential but I can't back him yet having rewatched the Brown Advisory.

It's a worry that his departure at the 12th came after Monkfish had begun to wind up the pace.

And watching a riderless EDR negotiate the rest of the course didn't make me think he was a good jumper who'd just been a bit unlucky. Maybe I'm being unfair. But I'd certainly want to see him put in a clear round at Cheltenham before getting involved.
 
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I'm not sure there's too much to debate to have for now. Galvin will turn up at Down Royal, and Gordon gets to find out whether he's a genuine Gold Cup contender, or whether he's better going down the XC/National route.

If he wins or goes close in the JWN he surely goes to the Gold Cup, if he falls short it'll be the XC/GN route without any further harm to his mark and the very small possibility of a pound or two off.

What we do know is he intends to campaign him openly and there's no need to try to second guess anything now.

Essentially all routes are still on the table and remain possibilities, and cashout should remain for each leaving limited risk.
 
Galvin up 5lb to 159 for his win yesterday.

Still keeps him in with a Grand National chance, as well as nipping at Gold Cup potential.

Many Clouds 160 won it
Tiger Roll 159 won it
Neptune Collonges 157 won it

Be extremely interesting to see how the Down Royal race goes now.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Galvin up 5lb to 159 for his win yesterday.

Still keeps him in with a Grand National chance, as well as nipping at Gold Cup potential.

Many Clouds 160 won it
Tiger Roll 159 won it
Neptune Collonges 157 won it

Be extremely interesting to see how the Down Royal race goes now.
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Galvin is an Irish rating right? And all of the others are British ratings?

If that's the case then I'd be surprised if Galvin didn't get a rating in the 160s should he run in the national off his current Irish rating.
 
Dandrew99 said:
Galvin is an Irish rating right? And all of the others are British ratings?

If that's the case then I'd be surprised if Galvin didn't get a rating in the 160s should he run in the national off his current Irish rating.
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He had 154 in Ireland and a BHA performance rating of 154 for the win in the NHC, before yesterday,
Galvin is well known to the British 'capper, he has been at the Festival for the last 3 years, and took in a Novice Chase in October last year at Cheltenham.

He has had 7 runs over hurdles/fences in Britain and 8 in Ireland, the BHA 'capper knows him inside out.
I dont see anymore than 159 being applied for that win yesterday by the BHA.

I would think Gordon may enter him at Cheltenham's October meeting, if he wanted to know the BHA 'cappers figures before he runs at Down Royal.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
He had 154 in Ireland and a BHA performance rating of 154 for the win in the NHC, before yesterday,
Galvin is well known to the British 'capper, he has been at the Festival for the last 3 years, and took in a Novice Chase in October last year at Cheltenham.

He has had 7 runs over hurdles/fences in Britain and 8 in Ireland, the BHA 'capper knows him inside out.
I dont see anymore than 159 being applied for that win yesterday by the BHA.

I would think Gordon may enter him at Cheltenham's October meeting, if he wanted to know the BHA 'cappers figures before he runs at Down Royal.
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For sure yeah, if the National is on his radar I would be absolutely shocked if he doesn't check the BHA mark before Christmas. Just thought I'd clarify that it is possible he gets more than 159, it's worth throwing into the equation at least.

Do you (or anyone else) remember how many of the Irish lot got bumped up last year?
 
Dandrew99 said:
For sure yeah, if the National is on his radar I would be absolutely shocked if he doesn't check the BHA mark before Christmas. Just thought I'd clarify that it is possible he gets more than 159, it's worth throwing into the equation at least.

Do you (or anyone else) remember how many of the Irish lot got bumped up last year?
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The ones that hadn't been over got bumped up, generally, as they'd only had Irish marks to work with.

But Galvin had been over so his mark was known as he didn't run after he ran at Cheltenham's October meeting.
 
Whatever way you look at it, it still makes a GN win very, very difficult. Is he another Tiger ? I still don't see why they ran him to win this week. Cant fathom that at all if Aintree was top of the agenda. Why do that if the GN was their main target ? It clearly isn't. They want him to be a GC horse and must surely be trying to win again at DR. He'll be taking on horses a lot higher than him on ratings so he'll have to be beat some way in order to be dropped again to a more manageable weight for Aintree and if it looks obvious then the handicapper won't be amused. Win there and he'll have no other option than the GC.
 
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Does anyone think that Galvin's RPR of 167 for the other day is a bit high? He peaked at 159 last year and whilst I don't think any of us here would suggest it was anything other than a good performance, it was a slowly run race according to the Topspeed figure. Gordy said he needed the run as well so if it's a correct figure, Galvin should be pushing 170s next race which really would make him a Gold Cup contender as several of you have already suggested. I was expecting a figure between 160-165 so trying to figure out how wrong my position on this specific race (i.e. the one that happened the other day, not the Gold Cup) is or isn't?
 
His next race at Down Royal will be very interesting with him now had a run under his belt and will face the Gold Cup winner and a good yardstick in Frodon who will be first time out.
 
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