2022 Gold Cup

[Saxon Warrior]

Spot on COD. On paper he does look Gordon's only hope for the GC having lost his beloved Envoi and I would be confident now that they'll target the big one in March. As you say, GN backers are likely to be able to cash out at a profit if they wish.

If he lost the Grade 1 at Down Royal, far enough, behind Minella Indo, he wouldnt go up in the ratings, stay around 160 maybe.

Then he would be put away (they avoid winter ground for him every season) and come back after the Grand National weights, in time for better ground (hopefully) and a fourth run at the Cheltenham Festival.

Free hit, to run in the Gold Cup then, before trying the Grand National - no penalty, even if he were good enough to win the Gold Cup.
if that happened he would be a stone well in for the National.

It looked and sounded like he was going that well in his gallops, they had to run him and reveal a bit more of his ability.
So they have.
Depends now on
a) his new handicap mark
b) his run at Down Royal

as to whether its a Gold Cup season, or the Grand National, or both.

Recent times in the GN
Many Clouds won off 160
Tiger Roll won off 159, Gordon would know how Galvin compares to him.
Neptune Collonges won off 157.

Anibale Fly was 4th off 159, and 5th off 164.
Glgamboa and Burrows Saint both were 4th off 156.

He is definitely better than those last two, the others maybe down to personal opinion.

So much depends on this second race now, after the Irish 'capper gives him a new mark on Tuesday.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

All the talk of what the handicapper does is semi irrelevant, the Irish ‘capper’s opinion matters little when it comes to handicapping the big UK races…

 

[Lobos]

If they really wanted to run in the GN then why win today and then make things difficult for themselves to potentially get his mark back down at a later date ?? It just doesn't make any sense at all. I can only think that they were testing the water today to see if they potentially have a GC horse and they've got their answer. I've cashed my GN bets on that basis. Galvin was a massive winner for me this year and he owes me nothing. I'd love it if he turns out to be GC material and it'll be great for Gordon after losing Envoi. I'm not sure Ronnie has had a GC horse before either ?

 

[jack1092]

Not sure what the purpose of that was for Galvin, he scraped home in a 5 runner G3 for about 15 grand which won't be anywhere near good enough for a Gold Cup tilt and probably puts his mark up a few pound blowing a National bid.
I'd love to hear the thinking here...

I'd say the "plan" is to pick up some early pots like he did last year with TS. He'll be A1 for his life come Down Royal- that'll then tell him if he's up to a Gold Cup or not. Delta Work will go out and have his prep as per usual.
I'd say the long term plan for him has passed, in the he won the 4miler. Now it's just take it as it comes...

 

[jack1092]

If they really wanted to run in the GN then why win today and then make things difficult for themselves to potentially get his mark back down at a later date ?? It just doesn't make any sense at all. I can only think that they were testing the water today to see if they potentially have a GC horse and they've got their answer. I've cashed my GN bets on that basis. Galvin was a massive winner for me this year and he owes me nothing. I'd love it if he turns out to be GC material and it'll be great for Gordon after losing Envoi. I'm not sure Ronnie has had a GC horse before either ?

Today is not telling them if they have a GC horse though.

 

[Lobos]

Today is not telling them if they have a GC horse though.

Maybe not but it shows he's improved again which is all important. 6 wins in a row now . He's got every chance of mixing it with the big boys

 

[jack1092]

Maybe not but it shows he's improved again which is all important. 6 wins in a row now . He's got every chance of mixing it with the big boys

He's shown nothing much more for me than he did in March- his real test comes when he's up North for the G1. To me that'll prove what his aspirations are. He's beaten Annamix + Brahma Bull two good handicappers. Keeping up with Frodon from the front will provide the proper test IMO, especially with his sticky jumping.

 

[SharpHat]

Not sure why everyone's assuming the cross country is off the table. He's not good enough to win a gold cup and Gordon's comments confirm he thinks the same. He could however be good enough for the cross country. I'm still reasonably confident that's where he'll go

 

[jack1092]

Not sure why everyone's assuming the cross country is off the table. He's not good enough to win a gold cup and Gordon's comments confirm he thinks the same. He could however be good enough for the cross country. I'm still reasonably confident that's where he'll go

This could be true- Tiger Roll PU in a G2 then made his way over for his first sighter. Though i do feel Galvin will show up better at Down Royal in a G1 which will probably make it more difficult to still revert back for a X-C

 

[Lobos]

Love it when a good horse splits the forum. I've done full circle with him myself. Thought he was a GN horse, now think he's a GC horse........I expect he'll go and win the only race I don't expect him to go anywhere near now......the XC ! :excitement::excitement::excitement:

 

[charlie]

Galvin was good and is definitely a work in progress, but I think he’ll end up in the XC myself. Gordon has said as much and it would be the perfect prep for the national, and, a winnable race at Cheltenham. There’s a gulf between being a good chaser and being GC class - Galvin will need to prove he’s up to it if he is to go here. Is it possible, absolutely, do I think he’ll cut it at the very top level, no, but happy to be proven wrong

 

[Lobos]

Has Gordon said the XC would be a perfect prep for Galvin?? If so, I've missed that completely. Plenty on here reckon Eklat De Rire could be a GC horse. He's currently rated 2lbs behind Galvin and that could rise to 6/7lbs plus. EDR has got a lot more to prove imo .

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Has Gordon said the XC would be a perfect prep for Galvin?? If so, I've missed that completely. Plenty on here reckon Eklat De Rire could be a GC horse. He's currently rated 2lbs behind Galvin and that could rise to 6/7lbs plus. EDR has got a lot more to prove imo .

They both have similar amounts to prove at the highest level

Eklat derire has potentially more scope for improvement though having had just 3 chase starts to galvins 10

 

[Lobos]

They both have similar amounts to prove at the highest level

Eklat derire has potentially more scope for improvement though having had just 3 chase starts to galvins 10

Possibly but he has to prove that on course. Galvin , after today, will probably only be rated 4-6 lbs below what Minella Indo was going into this year's GC. He really doesn't have to make much more improvement to get involved. That won't be lost on Gordon/Ronnie.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

This could be true- Tiger Roll PU in a G2 then made his way over for his first sighter. Though i do feel Galvin will show up better at Down Royal in a G1 which will probably make it more difficult to still revert back for a X-C

He looks very good on decent ground.

He can't easily hide anything on ground that suits him.

I think now, he's a Grade 1 runner next start, nowhere near a XC runner next up.

And I only see him having one more run before the ground usually changes and he rests up until March.

If that's the case, then he probably doesn't get a XC run in Cheltenham in November or December.

I don't think theres much chance that Gordon runs him in the XC in March if he hasn't ran over the track in November or December.

For me, he needs to run in a XC Handicap at Cheltenham in November (or Dec) to be a runner there in March.

We will know that soon enough, so not long to wait.

 

[charlie]

Has Gordon said the XC would be a perfect prep for Galvin?? If so, I've missed that completely. Plenty on here reckon Eklat De Rire could be a GC horse. He's currently rated 2lbs behind Galvin and that could rise to 6/7lbs plus. EDR has got a lot more to prove imo .

He hasn’t said XC over GC, but he’s said GN over GC (at the moment) so the XC as a prep would work well. I’m second guessing GE here and obviously that can change, but that’s how I hope it pans out.


I’m not mad on the ‘if you like X then you must like Y’ approach. Galvin & EDR have very different profiles with a view to potential improvement IMO - both could take step forward (or both disappoint, who knows). I try not to get too bogged down with ratings as novices step into open company because a lot can change very quickly. Obviously low to mid 150’s is what you’d expect, but 152 v154 v 156 doesn’t really weigh much on my mind now.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I don't think theres much chance that Gordon runs him in the XC in March if he hasn't ran over the track in November or December.

For me, he needs to run in a XC Handicap at Cheltenham in November (or Dec) to be a runner there in March.

We will know that soon enough, so not long to wait.

Wasn’t that long ago that Elliott was able to
book a schooling run at the XC course for a few of his, I remember him doing this with Cause of Causes to great effect a few years ago so I wouldn’t rule it out entirely even if I’m sure the relationship between course management and the trainer was stronger then

 

[charlie]

Wasn’t that long ago that Elliott was able to
book a schooling run at the XC course for a few of his, I remember him doing this with Cause of Causes to great effect a few years ago so I wouldn’t rule it out entirely even if I’m sure the relationship between course management and the trainer was stronger then

Very good point, he loves doing this. I’ll find out more on what the protocols on this are cause that will have to be organised well in advance

 

[jonthehammer]

I think Galvin is a lot better than some people think, how do we know he cant win a GC? He is still improving and a damn sight better than some of the horses who were ahead of him in the market before today. He will improve for the extra 2f and also he enjoys the track/ He also just does enough and Davy barely touched him today and said as much that he had more up his sleeve. Gordon also said after the race he took as blow as well, all these things together he could end up mid 160s which Indo won off last year. I would love to see him going the GC route and seeing how he got on.

Obviously a long way to go yet but its good to see a horse like this winning fairly cosily as he did today while also giving weight.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Have to say I’m completely flummoxed with GE’s plan for Galvin this season. I was convinced the master plotter was going to ensure some form of defeat today and I laid him for my sins accordingly.

Read through all the post race comments and such is my level of confusion I feel myself agreeing with pretty much all of them to varying extents.

One thing that has crossed my mind is that if GE is really targeting the National and feels Galvin has a bit in hand then he’s decided to run him relatively genuinely in order to ensure he is not screwed over by the UK handicapper. He was obviously heavily punished for plotting TBO and saw the benefits of running RWF somewhat genuinely with the rating he was given. Anyway I’m still sitting on my National tickets and am sure to add him for the GC before his next race.