2022 Gold Cup

[Exar Essay]

Still 25/1 with 365 which is very fair. The straight double (if you could do it which you obviously can’t) wouldn’t even pay that.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

No doubt MI will be the classiest horse in the KG but even from the latest quotes it screams to me that they are still unsure whether he can lay up with them on a tight flat track especially if the ground is better than Soft. I'm not convinced at all and I don't think they are either and I do think he'll find it all happening a bit too quick and has place claims at best. He wouldn't be on my Xmas list.

Indo has always been a pretty keen traveller when he is in top form

If he turns up anywhere near his gold cup level he's the one to beat for me

If he doesn't then hopefully he gets pushed to 8/1 for March and il get my king George money back plus more at the festival

 

[Dandrew99]

No doubt MI will be the classiest horse in the KG but even from the latest quotes it screams to me that they are still unsure whether he can lay up with them on a tight flat track especially if the ground is better than Soft. I'm not convinced at all and I don't think they are either and I do think he'll find it all happening a bit too quick and has place claims at best. He wouldn't be on my Xmas list.

Could be a nice related double of whatever you think will beat him with APT for the Gold Cup. He's sure to shorten should MI get beaten

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Best of luck. I have been known to get it wrong now and again :welcoming:

Think you are right. I can see Frodon beating MI again on a track I think suits him better than the Gold Cup winner.
Think Frodon could well win it again, CH the big danger for me.
I do accept of course that MI has never ran at Kempton so may get proved wrong, but to me he looks the type that may struggle a tad there.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Still 25/1 with 365 which is very fair. The straight double (if you could do it which you obviously can’t) wouldn’t even pay that.

Agreed. Everyone should be taking the 25/1 as mathematically it's the right thing to do.

He may lose, or you may not think he'll win, but 25/1 is the wrong price and you'd be a winner betting with that edge in the long run, imo.

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[ToniC]

Agreed. Everyone should be taking the 25/1 as mathematically it's the right thing to do.

He may lose, or you may not think he'll win, but 25/1 is the wrong price and you'd be a winner betting with that edge in the long run, imo.

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This is where I’m at with it to be fair. Wouldn’t fancy him for the race, but it’s a good price, and obviously he CAN win.

 

[Odin]

Agreed. Everyone should be taking the 25/1 as mathematically it's the right thing to do.

He may lose, or you may not think he'll win, but 25/1 is the wrong price and you'd be a winner betting with that edge in the long run, imo.

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Whilst I fully agree with the principle, I always wonder how many of these you have to do before this edge makes sense. For anyone who does a book on any race it doesn't matter, but if you just bet on one/two horses in any given race do you still have this edge? I'm not convinced you do because other horses will be similarly overpriced so you could easily miss out on the one that does come in. Does that make sense?

 

[Eggs]

Still 25/1 with 365 which is very fair. The straight double (if you could do it which you obviously can’t) wouldn’t even pay that.

….Minella Indo KG/GC also 25-1 with Hills (27-1 with boost if anybody wants to pinch a few points).

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Agreed. Everyone should be taking the 25/1 as mathematically it's the right thing to do.

The double at 4/1 and 5/1 pays 29/1 so 25/1 isn’t a gift from the racing Gods but it’s about as close to value as they offer these days.
I know you can’t play the related double but it wasn’t that long ago a 29/1 double would be 33/1 or bigger as a special…

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The double at 4/1 and 5/1 pays 29/1 so 25/1 isn’t a gift from the racing Gods but it’s about as close to value as they offer these days.
I know you can’t play the related double but it wasn’t that long ago a 29/1 double would be 33/1 or bigger as a special…

It was 33/1 two days ago.

The manual double is likely to be 17.5/1, 20/1 at best, imo.

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[Deleted member 4957]

It was 33/1 two days ago.

The manual double is likely to be 17.5/1, 20/1 at best, imo.

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Is the 4/1 and 5/1 Oddschecker day Sky offer a lie ?
Wouldn’t be a shock, they’ve had some issues recently…

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Whilst I fully agree with the principle, I always wonder how many of these you have to do before this edge makes sense. For anyone who does a book on any race it doesn't matter, but if you just bet on one/two horses in any given race do you still have this edge? I'm not convinced you do because other horses will be similarly overpriced so you could easily miss out on the one that does come in. Does that make sense?

Not following you on that one. I don't think it matters whether you are creating a book or being very selective.

It will likely be a losing bet but it's still a great bet at the prices and if you only ever bet when the odds were this much in your favour, you would be a winning punter over time. That's how I see it anyway.:greedy_dollars:

I think Minella Indo will have an SP of no bigger than 3/1. If he wins the KG he'll be the GC favourite at a maximum of 3/1, imo. That makes the double 15/1. Add in a little uncertainty because of ante post and I still think it's a really good bet.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is the 4/1 and 5/1 Oddschecker day Sky offer a lie ?
Wouldn’t be a shock, they’ve had some issues recently…

It isn't a lie but you can't do that double, so it's a myth rather than a lie.

 

[Odin]

Not following you on that one. I don't think it matters whether you are creating a book or being very selective.

It will likely be a losing bet but it's still a great bet at the prices and if you only ever bet when the odds were this much in your favour, you would be a winning punter over time. That's how I see it anyway.:greedy_dollars:

I think Minella Indo will have an SP of no bigger than 3/1. If he wins the KG he'll be the GC favourite at a maximum of 3/1, imo. That makes the double 15/1. Add in a little uncertainty because of ante post and I still think it's a really good bet.

Yep I hear what you're saying - and agree on both SP and future GC price. The point was more that I worry (from a personal perspective) that if I put a bet on when I'm not confident that the horse will win (my situation with MI) at the moment, it's unclear to me where to draw the line as I'm generally not great at predicting prices!

I think, having thought about it more, I like to bet when I believe I have a price and 'knowledge' edge (e.g. I'd take this bet if I thought MI was going to win KG and because the price is good), whereas your suggestion of betting only when you see a price edge in this scenario spooks me a bit because it feels like betting blind (even if the odds are in our favour). I think it's two slightly different approaches which is why I originally queried. Good luck though, I may yet join you but need to look at the race in more detail first :encouragement:

 

[Benjy23]

I've taken the 25/1 also. Agree it's the percentage call. Wins the KG and has to be favourite for the GC.

I've a slight concern for the antepost part of the KG, but the owners quotes on the previous page sound like it's the plan.

I wouldn't rule out him out being a slightly bigger price on the day of the KG either tbh. Clan and Frodon likely to be fairly popular?

 

[That Horse]

I wouldn't rule out him out being a slightly bigger price on the day of the KG either tbh. Clan and Frodon likely to be fairly popular?

I'm of the opposite view that if MI turns up, being the gold cup winner (and Irish and with Rachael onboard), I think Clan and Frodon both drift with MI becoming fav. Which is what I want as I may back both Nicholls' horses on the day, there's no point now given their current odds.

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[Mighty]

I’d agree with that TH. I’d want to be taking on MI at the prices given it’s a flat fast track, and slightly shorter distance. Also, if Minella Indo loses you’d think he’d be pushed out a little for the Gold Cup making his price more attractive…

 

[Benjy23]

Quite possibly. Wasn't hugely popular in the GC though. And Mullins will run at least one, which will take some of the Irish angle away. And then the Nichols pair obviously won the last few runnings between them so I'd expect to be popular. Bryony Frost as well, might take a bit of the Rachael angle...

MI shortened already today to be fair, so I could well be wrong.

 

[Eggs]

….Minella Indo KG/GC also 25-1 with Hills (27-1 with boost if anybody wants to pinch a few points).

….now 16-1 (20-1 365).

 

[knockando]

This was in the Mark Howard Christmas update - thought to post on here as would peak interest for a few, and those also on Ahoy for the RSA

I have worked with various people on Racing TV over the years and they all have their different strengths. I thoroughly enjoy my trips orth of the border, not least because it means I invariably team up with Gordon Brown. The Biggar based broadcaster is not renowned for his form study but has few peers when it comes to picking up snippets of information and local ‘gossip.’ GB informed me at Aintree’s Becher Chase meeting this month that Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore intend giving the aforementioned star novice AHOY SENOR an entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the New Year. The six year old, who was bought for ?50,000 in November last year having won an English point-to-point, looked a star of the future when beating three rivals by upwards of 31 lengths in a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Newbury’s Winter Carnival and is already rated 157 over fences.

Unfashionably bred being by Dylan Thomas, his next assignment is on Sunday in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton (1.55), where he will cross swords with old rival Bravemansgame for a second time. Ahoy Senor beat Paul Nicholls’ Challow Hurdle winner by seven lengths in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April and it is possible he will outstay the same opponent over weekend. Reported to have done a ‘scintillating’ piece of work last Saturday, the Scottish raider couldn’t be in better form.

With that in mind, it may be worth taking the 33/1 (Bet365, Skybet, William Hill) on offer for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Remember where you heard it first – an exclusive from GB News.