2022 Gold Cup

[nortonscoin200]

Plenty of horses we could say would have won the race on Saturday as well instead of Protektorat though?

A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Allaho, Asterion Forlonge, Al Boum Photo, Galvin, Clan Des Obeaux, Denman?

Not sure they'll all be challenging in March though

Really Kev?

Surely what you can say is that Protektorat and Chantry House are two improvers at the right age to make their mark in the Gold Cup next March.

Protektorat looked an absolutely relentless galloper on his latest start - and no matter the opposition that was visually impressive. If it comes up soft/softish in March he's in the mix.

His previous run at Cheltenham off top weight over a shorter trip also backs up the impression that after a wind op and now running over 3 miles he has gone to a new level.

And next year he'll be seven which has often proved the perfect age for a rapid improver to win the Gold Cup.

As for Chantry House - setting aside the merits or otherwise of his price - if he wins the GC next year you could look back at his career form (as Q succinctly spells out) and say 'why the devil didn't I see that coming'.

I speak as someone who hasn't backed either Protektorat or Chantry House yet.

But imo it's highly unlikely that the first two home this year will fight out the finish again in March - we're not talking about Arkle and Mill House here - and my guess is that a repeat 1-2 rarely happens in the GC.

 

[Kevloaf]

Really Kev?

Surely what you can say is that Protektorat and Chantry House are two improvers at the right age to make their mark in the Gold Cup next March.

Protektorat looked an absolutely relentless galloper on his latest start - and no matter the opposition that was visually impressive. If it comes up soft/softish in March he's in the mix.

His previous run at Cheltenham off top weight over a shorter trip also backs up the impression that after a wind op and now running over 3 miles he has gone to a new level.

And next year he'll be seven which has often proved the perfect age for a rapid improver to win the Gold Cup.

As for Chantry House - setting aside the merits or otherwise of his price - if he wins the GC next year you could look back at his career form (as Q succinctly spells out) and say 'why the devil didn't I see that coming'.

I speak as someone who hasn't backed either Protektorat or Chantry House yet.

But imo it's highly unlikely that the first two home this year will fight out the finish again in March - we're not talking about Arkle and Mill House here - and my guess is that a repeat 1-2 rarely happens in the GC.

It'd be mainly that I don't think the British Novice Chasers were all that.

Monkfish and Envoi Allen, in my opinion, were quite clearly the best two novice chasers...

Now one is out for the season, the other looks to not be as good .... however, I'm still not allowing the 'void' that they've left mean that CH or P or any other horse from last year will automatically step up.


Of course they could, I just don't think they're vintage horses to do it.


They're the best that's left of what may not had been a good enough bunch anyway, I feel Monkfish and EA were, that is my point. So personally I won't be amazed at the same 1-2....

 

[Dandrew99]

Just seen that the same tricast is 100/1 on SkyBet, was actually bigger than I expected...

 

[Rooster Booster]

It'd be mainly that I don't think the British Novice Chasers were all that.

Monkfish and Envoi Allen, in my opinion, were quite clearly the best two novice chasers...

Now one is out for the season, the other looks to not be as good .... however, I'm still not allowing the 'void' that they've left mean that CH or P or any other horse from last year will automatically step up.


Of course they could, I just don't think they're vintage horses to do it.


They're the best that's left of what may not had been a good enough bunch anyway, I feel Monkfish and EA were, that is my point. So personally I won't be amazed at the same 1-2....

where do you think CH would have finished if he had run in this years rsa Kev?

 

[Kevloaf]

where do you think CH would have finished if he had run in this years rsa Kev?

2nd, well beaten like the rest of them despite Monkfish being a bit underwhelming.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Indeed. Though I thought Eireman was saying he prefers P cos he don’t think CH could have done what P did at Aintree…..I think he could have.
Sorry, forgot to quote you Kev

 

[Rooster Booster]

2nd, well beaten like the rest of them despite Monkfish being a bit underwhelming.

Fiddler was only beaten 6 1/2 with the rest a mile back so CH would be ahead of Fiddler and still well beaten. Guess it must have been a photo for second :biggrin-new:

 

[Kevloaf]

Fiddler was only beaten 6 1/2 with the rest a mile back so CH would be ahead of Fiddler and still well beaten. Guess it must have been a photo for second :biggrin-new:

You're on the wind up surely.:glee:

"only beaten" 6.5L, that's plenty to be beaten.... by a horse that IMO wasn't near his best.

I was being polite saying 2nd, but the point was that even if he had finished second, which isn't unfeasible, it doesn't matter, I think he'd have been an also-ran in that race.


A photo for 2nd, he'd be 40/1 like Fiddlerontheroof..... fair enough price.:redface-new:

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

You're on the wind up surely.:glee:

"only beaten" 6.5L, that's plenty to be beaten.... by a horse that IMO wasn't near his best.

I was being polite saying 2nd, but the point was that even if he had finished second, which isn't unfeasible, it doesn't matter, I think he'd have been an also-ran in that race.


A photo for 2nd, he'd be 40/1 like Fiddlerontheroof..... fair enough price.:redface-new:

The way both horses performed at the festival i would say CH would have won the RSA, especially as he is proving a better horse at the longer distance.
The point to point reference that Spectre made don’t exactly put CH being well beat by M.

 

[Rooster Booster]

You're on the wind up surely.:glee:

"only beaten" 6.5L, that's plenty to be beaten.... by a horse that IMO wasn't near his best.

I was being polite saying 2nd, but the point was that even if he had finished second, which isn't unfeasible, it doesn't matter, I think he'd have been an also-ran in that race.


A photo for 2nd, he'd be 40/1 like Fiddlerontheroof..... fair enough price.:redface-new:

No wind up I promise. I asked a genuine question. You chose to provide a polite answer when I would have preferred your real answer. Your polite answer had him finishing ahead of Fiddler but also well beaten and I just wanted clarification that’s all which you’ve now provided.

 

[Kevloaf]

The way both horses performed at the festival i would say CH would have won the RSA, especially as he is proving a better horse at the longer distance.
The point to point reference that Spectre made don’t exactly put CH being well beat by M.

Using point to point form literally is in my opinion pretty irrelevant.

I stopped myself saying that on the video. It's like backing the horse that Samcro was nearly beaten by and over betting him.


Monkfish underperforming and still winning by 6L for me is much better than Chantry House winning his race by 3L but I also think Monkfish would have won the Marsh, which I'm sure you don't.



Irrelevant really, but what odds was Monkfish before being ruled out?

 

[Dandrew99]

Irrelevant really, but what odds was Monkfish before being ruled out?

Best priced 6/1, as short as 9/2 in places

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Using point to point form literally is in my opinion pretty irrelevant.

I stopped myself saying that on the video. It's like backing the horse that Samcro was nearly beaten by and over betting him.


Monkfish underperforming and still winning by 6L for me is much better than Chantry House winning his race by 3L but I also think Monkfish would have won the Marsh, which I'm sure you don't.



Irrelevant really, but what odds was Monkfish before being ruled out?

I was not using the ptp literally, just mentioned it as part of my reasoning.
I think CH winning a race that imo was short of his best distance is to be looked at as a good achievement. Monkfish at his best may well have won the Marsh, and would have won the RSA with or without CH, but he weren’t at his best.
Monkfish price, not sure but he was fav at some point I believe?

 

[Rooster Booster]

Using point to point form literally is in my opinion pretty irrelevant.

I stopped myself saying that on the video. It's like backing the horse that Samcro was nearly beaten by and over betting him.


Monkfish underperforming and still winning by 6L for me is much better than Chantry House winning his race by 3L but I also think Monkfish would have won the Marsh, which I'm sure you don't.



Irrelevant really, but what odds was Monkfish before being ruled out?

I agree that CH wasn’t ultra impressive winning the Marsh but I am strongly of the opinion that that’s because he already needed 3 miles. Imo the trainer is quite easy on his novices and kept alluding to the fact that he would step up in trip at some point but you kind of got the sense that it wouldn’t be until aintree no matter what. He got lucky in the end and ended up winning a good prize while also minding his horse. Not a bad outcome imo with regard to maximising the horses future and as such I don’t think he is the kind of horse to take too literal a view when using the past to predict the future.

 

[Kevloaf]

I was not using the ptp literally, just mentioned it as part of my reasoning.
I think CH winning a race that imo was short of his best distance is to be looked at as a good achievement. Monkfish at his best may well have won the Marsh, and would have won the RSA with or without CH, but he weren’t at his best.
Monkfish price, not sure but he was fav at some point I believe?

Even mentioning the point to points though for me is a bit of a clutch at straws in terms of really relevancy by the time we're talking about being open chasers. That's a different point though so fair enough.

It is a good achievement, it's just not an achievement that'd have me excited. Fusil Raffles would be an also-ran in a Ryanair, and of the horses further back, I don't believe they ran to their best so if they've gone on to do better, that's great, but doesn't mean we can take it literally.

I think Chantry House would have had to improve so much for 3m to reach Monkfish's level, and that level may not be good enough to win a Gold Cup still.


Monkfish being 6/1 isn't a price I'd have taken, and I assume CH was also much bigger at the time, but would you really have Chantry House as a more likely winner of the Gold Cup than Monkfish, if Monkfish hadn't been injured? You'd have to really believe he'd have won the "RSA", and I just don't... I would have seen him as an also-ran in that.... if Monkfish had been on song, I don't think Chantry House would have been within 6L of him... over any distance.


So with regards to the Gold Cup, he just has way too much to find to get to the level of the 'missing' challenger, and that may not have been good enough to place. FWIW I would very much have fancied Monkfish this season... not at 6/1 mind you, but I'd have been trying to work him in somehow.

 

[Kevloaf]

I agree that CH wasn’t ultra impressive winning the Marsh but I am strongly of the opinion that that’s because he already needed 3 miles. Imo the trainer is quite easy on his novices and kept alluding to the fact that he would step up in trip at some point but you kind of got the sense that it wouldn’t be until aintree no matter what. He got lucky in the end and ended up winning a good prize while also minding his horse. Not a bad outcome imo with regard to maximising the horses future and as such I don’t think he is the kind of horse to take too literal a view when using the past to predict the future.

Aintree Bowl 2022 winner... Chantry House.

As the Irish horses won't be there.... :afro:

 

[Rooster Booster]

Even mentioning the point to points though for me is a bit of a clutch at straws in terms of really relevancy by the time we're talking about being open chasers. That's a different point though so fair enough.

It is a good achievement, it's just not an achievement that'd have me excited. Fusil Raffles would be an also-ran in a Ryanair, and of the horses further back, I don't believe they ran to their best so if they've gone on to do better, that's great, but doesn't mean we can take it literally.

I think Chantry House would have had to improve so much for 3m to reach Monkfish's level, and that level may not be good enough to win a Gold Cup still.


Monkfish being 6/1 isn't a price I'd have taken, and I assume CH was also much bigger at the time, but would you really have Chantry House as a more likely winner of the Gold Cup than Monkfish, if Monkfish hadn't been injured? You'd have to really believe he'd have won the "RSA", and I just don't... I would have seen him as an also-ran in that.... if Monkfish had been on song, I don't think Chantry House would have been within 6L of him... over any distance.


So with regards to the Gold Cup, he just has way too much to find to get to the level of the 'missing' challenger, and that may not have been good enough to place. FWIW I would very much have fancied Monkfish this season... not at 6/1 mind you, but I'd have been trying to work him in somehow.

Monkfish got an rpr of170 for winning the rsa and CH 164 for winning the Marsh. That doesn’t suggest he would have had to improve ‘so much’ to have at least gone very close in the rsa.? Anyhow we aren’t getting anywhere and nobody (among the many of us expressing views) appear to be budging even a little so it looks like a stalemate all round unless somebody has a game changer of an argument lined up :biggrin-new: ....so as always the final word will lie with the horse

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Even mentioning the point to points though for me is a bit of a clutch at straws in terms of really relevancy by the time we're talking about being open chasers. That's a different point though so fair enough.

It is a good achievement, it's just not an achievement that'd have me excited. Fusil Raffles would be an also-ran in a Ryanair, and of the horses further back, I don't believe they ran to their best so if they've gone on to do better, that's great, but doesn't mean we can take it literally.

I think Chantry House would have had to improve so much for 3m to reach Monkfish's level, and that level may not be good enough to win a Gold Cup still.


Monkfish being 6/1 isn't a price I'd have taken, and I assume CH was also much bigger at the time, but would you really have Chantry House as a more likely winner of the Gold Cup than Monkfish, if Monkfish hadn't been injured? You'd have to really believe he'd have won the "RSA", and I just don't... I would have seen him as an also-ran in that.... if Monkfish had been on song, I don't think Chantry House would have been within 6L of him... over any distance.


So with regards to the Gold Cup, he just has way too much to find to get to the level of the 'missing' challenger, and that may not have been good enough to place. FWIW I would very much have fancied Monkfish this season... not at 6/1 mind you, but I'd have been trying to work him in somehow.

Monkfish would have been my fancy for the Gold Cup before the RSA. Now that opinion obviously no longer exists.
CH is a horse that’s improving for a step up, how far is anyone’s guess. Can he get as far as being competitive in a Gold Cup? Don’t know. But I can see the possibility given all I know and have seen from him to date.

 

[Quevega]

If Monkfish had beaten Shan blue a distance with Fiddlerontheroof another distance behind at Aintree.
What would we have thought ?

To me it seems Chantry House is getting no credit for that.
He fucking hammered them, and they had all ran at Cheltenham, so no excuses.
None of the rest could finish the race.

It's possible that none of them ran their race.
But if you follow racing and take that view too often then you'll not follow it for long.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

If you think fiddler and Shan blue ran their race at Aintree then chantry House and espoir de romay must be the next kauto star and denman