2022 Gold Cup

[TiggerRoll]

It’s rarely a smart idea for a novice to go for a championship race, I appreciate he’s a second season novice so has reasonable experience but if he wasn’t good enough to get his head in front last season against fellow novices I’m not sure why anyone would think he’d be capable of taking on the best open chasers around and coming out on top…

Saturday will tell us a lot more on that front. The main play for me is getting him on side at 100+ in the expectation of a good run where that price is likely to soon disappear. You’d think he has to at least come down to similar to Eklat’s level if he beats him?

 

[ToniC]

For those of us on OTR for the NHC, what kind of result would work best? If he wins he surely goes GC not NHC. So, I guess we want a slow run race with him getting outpaced at the end so they go down the stamina route?

Staying on for a place at the end should do it ok yeah. That with EDR winning be nice!

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Saturday will tell us a lot more on that front.

You say that there’s no Minella Indo, A Plus Tard or Envoi Allen to take on, the Hennessy is not the race it once was and rarely produces a legitimate Gold Cup contender, Native River aside I can’t remember one since Bobs Worth.
Ultimately it’s a handicap, winning it getting weight from the likes of Brahma Bull and Anamix wouldn’t scream Gold Cup winner for me…

 

[Lobos]

It’s rarely a smart idea for a novice to go for a championship race, I appreciate he’s a second season novice so has reasonable experience but if he wasn’t good enough to get his head in front last season against fellow novices I’m not sure why anyone would think he’d be capable of taking on the best open chasers around and coming out on top…

Was held up with injury last season though wasn't he ? Simply going for the Hennessy off a relatively big weight should tell everyone that he must be well thought of by Connections.

 

[TiggerRoll]

You say that there’s no Minella Indo, A Plus Tard or Envoi Allen to take on, the Hennessy is not the race it once was and rarely produces a legitimate Gold Cup contender, Native River aside I can’t remember one since Bobs Worth.
Ultimately it’s a handicap, winning it getting weight from the likes of Brahma Bull and Anamix wouldn’t scream Gold Cup winner for me…

I enjoy these different views hugely and it’s a great part of the forum. Fully agree with what you’re saying about the overall quality of the race but I still think that he’ll shorten significantly with a good run and that’s all I’m looking for at this stage.

Yes Al Boum Photo is a dual winner but does anyone expect him to come back and win? The next contender from the yard is Castlebawn West who’s not streets clear of Ontheropes for me. There’s a surprising dearth of viable options for the yard (unless I’ve overlooked something which is highly possible).

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I enjoy these different views hugely and it’s a great part of the forum. Fully agree with what you’re saying about the overall quality of the race but I still think that he’ll shorten significantly with a good run and that’s all I’m looking for at this stage.
.

Yes I agree, he will shorten for the Gold Cup if he wins a Hennessy but in my mind that shouldn’t impact where he goes in March, as a novice you take in the novice races, that’s why they exist.
As for handicap marks, novices have been hoovering the big ones up at will in recent season primarily because they are less exposed, but rarely do they then step into G1 open company and if they do they usually get found out.
Win on Saturday and he’s a serious 3m/NH Chase runner, he’d still be no 6/4 shot because right now both those races look hot, but the Gold Cup is an enormous step up from those…

 

[TiggerRoll]

Would you give Eklat De Rire a chance in the Gold Cup if he were to go and win on Saturday? (Not a weighted question but couldn’t figure out how to word it more sympathetically!)

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Would you give Eklat De Rire a chance in the Gold Cup if he were to go and win on Saturday? (Not a weighted question but couldn’t figure out how to word it more sympathetically!)

I’d say yes he’d be a legitimate candidate, but that’s because he’s a three time chase winner and had a 151 novice behind him last season and a 145 horse comfortably behind him in open company this season, he may have a similar amount of experience compared to OTR but he’s a proven winner.
That said, if Minella Indo, APT and Envoi all line up in March unless Eklat de Rire improves significantly he won’t make the podium….

 

[Silverbirch]

No chance Ontheropes lines up in the Gold Cup come March in my opinion. It would be the NHC if any and at a stretch the RSA.

If it turns up good then I won't be expecting an eye opening win for EDR. Just to be there or there abouts. Soft to heavy and I'd want a want to see something.

 

[Lobos]

Willie on Ontheropes......


"We will see what happens and make plans for him afterwards, but he is still a novice over fences this season and that gives us plenty of options with him. It would be nice to be thinking in terms of Gold Cups etc, but we will see what happens on Saturday first."

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Willie on Ontheropes......


"We will see what happens and make plans for him afterwards, but he is still a novice over fences this season and that gives us plenty of options with him. It would be nice to be thinking in terms of Gold Cups etc, but we will see what happens on Saturday first."

Standard experienced trainer response

All options open

 

[Spectre]

For those that have Ontheropes backed for the NH Chase, surely you have to back him for the Ladbroke Chase as mitigation.

If he gets beat he won't go t the Gold Cup, and if he wins you have more than your NH Chase stake back.

 

[Quevega]

For those that have Ontheropes backed for the NH Chase, surely you have to back him for the Ladbroke Chase as mitigation.

If he gets beat he won't go t the Gold Cup, and if he wins you have more than your NH Chase stake back.

Little related double with Run wild fred wouldn't be daftest thing.

 

[Spectre]

Good shout. I'm already heavily invested, but otherwise I'd definitely have done this on your suggestion. :encouragement:

 

[Lobos]

For those that have Ontheropes backed for the NH Chase, surely you have to back him for the Ladbroke Chase as mitigation.

If he gets beat he won't go t the Gold Cup, and if he wins you have more than your NH Chase stake back.

Bang on Spectre

 

[callhimgamblor]

If EDR wins today you have to think he will go into 4th fave for the GC likely into 12/1 or so but I'm interested in what chance people really believe he has. He has a lot of wins around the single unseated.... I think he is a bit of a sleeper for this. Again HDB/RB super team horse so him training the first three home isn't unreasonable.... I'm on EDR @ 50/1 for the GC so a little bias but it looks for all the world like HDB has this race all sewn up.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

If EDR wins today you have to think he will go into 4th fave for the GC likely into 12/1 or so but I'm interested in what chance people really believe he has. He has a lot of wins around the single unseated.... I think he is a bit of a sleeper for this. Again HDB/RB super team horse so him training the first three home isn't unreasonable.... I'm on EDR @ 50/1 for the GC so a little bias but it looks for all the world like HDB has this race all sewn up.

The 80/1 to win today and the GC is probably the bet to have if you fancy EDR. If he doesn't win today off his current mark, it's difficult to see how he'd be good enough to win a Good Cup.

 

[HoldenTheReins]

Henry has got some ammo for this.....

 

[Spectre]

I think the perfect result for most of our anteposts is Eclat de Rire winning, with Ontheropes beaten into a staying on 3rd or 4th.

 

[Exar Essay]

The 80/1 to win today and the GC is probably the bet to have if you fancy EDR. If he doesn't win today off his current mark, it's difficult to see how he'd be good enough to win a Good Cup.

Where is this please?