2022 Gold Cup

[charlie]

Looks like a list of numbers to me.
You say regularly then list 3 (including one renewal that doesn't count)
Not going to go on about it.
Cos it doesn't really matter. nthego:

Agree on the state of UK racing though as who missed the race ?
Champ
Native river
Next Destination.
All would have been beaten in similar fashion IMO.
And won't be winning a Gold Cup.

Yeh I think thats fair.

 

[Quevega]

A Plus Tard going shorter than Minella Indo shouldn't really be the trigger to back Minella Indo now should it? The 6/1 hasn't changed for him, and if anything his task got harder (as APT showed to still be in what we can assume is the sme level of ability) or at very least, his task stayed the same?

You could argue that relative to A Plus Tard, that Minella Indo today is a now a better bet than he was, but backing Minella Indo just because another horse got shorter isn't a great plan.

Of course, on the other hand, it depends on whether people feel 6/1 was fair anyway. I know if it was the day of the race and Minella Indo was 6/1 I'd see it as an each way solid bet, it just doesn't (and in my opinion shouldn't) have people wanting to take that today.



Part of this was to convince myself not to back Minella Indo this morning :glee:

No it shouldn't.
Why would it be if he's the same price.
Whoever is even thinking about it is daft, based on the likely next race's.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

A Plus Tard going shorter than Minella Indo shouldn't really be the trigger to back Minella Indo now should it? The 6/1 hasn't changed for him

Bookies so quick to slash prices on one without adjusting on others, it drives me insane.
A Plus Tard halved in price after his performance yesterday in effect taking around 8% out the market without any correction, if Minella Indo had been pushed out a point or two then I’d say yes, at 8/1 he’s a bet.
Same Bravemansgame, didn’t impress me hugely but suddenly bookies believe he has a better chance at winning the 3m race than Galopin Des Champs, which for me is wrong, GDC is the better horse and when he hits a racecourse no doubt they’ll flip favs again but there was no drift on GDC after shortening BMG.

I’ve said since March the Gold Cup is a 3/4 horse race, A Plus Tard, Envoi, Minella Indo being the main 3 and if I had the chance to back MI at 8s or bigger I would happily press….

 

[Craigy14]

For me I think sometimes you just have to enjoy the visual performance and forget about how deep a race it was, who didn’t perform etc.

He’s absolutely smashed some very good horses without coming off the bridle. Make whatever excuses for the underperformers post race, who cares. He travelled superbly and jumped excellently.

Similar to Appreciate It in the Supreme, call it a shit race etc but just go on the visual of the horse that impressed.

If he doesn’t back it up, then throw those things at him about not beating much etc.

 

[Eggs]

…..HdB 14-1 with Sky to have 1-2-3 in the GC.

 

[That Horse]

…..HdB 14-1 with Sky to have 1-2-3 in the GC.

Combination tricast on the day surely a better bet than those odds?

 

[Atlantic Viking]

For me I think sometimes you just have to enjoy the visual performance and forget about how deep a race it was, who didn’t perform etc.

He’s absolutely smashed some very good horses without coming off the bridle. Make whatever excuses for the underperformers post race, who cares. He travelled superbly and jumped excellently.

Similar to Appreciate It in the Supreme, call it a shit race etc but just go on the visual of the horse that impressed.

If he doesn’t back it up, then throw those things at him about not beating much etc.

Absolutely this.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Interesting that Rachael said just now that Richard Thompson and family were there at Haydock yesterday to see APT, wont do any harm for hopes the CPS fire keeps burning for NH horses.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Interesting that Rachael said just now that Richard Thompson and family were there at Haydock yesterday to see APT, wont do any harm for hopes the CPS fire keeps burning for NH horses.

I clapped a bit harder when they were presented..hoping every little helps to keep them in the NH game!

 

[Outlaw]

Bridle job producing a figure a better than BDM(arguably his best performance) did in 18 which was as close to Sat ground despite the going telling you there was any "soft":disgust: in the description, Come March the ground will be the only way to split APT/Indo on the day as the former is quicker and nimble but Indo you'd prob still just about side with if soft and truly run again.

 

[Silverbirch]

So, has Eklat De Rire got to put away Ontheropes on Saturday to keep up his Gold Cup credentials? (Ground depending of course, needs more rain as it stands) The betting suggests OTR is slight favourite.

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[Stormez]

So, has Eklat De Rire got to put away Ontheropes on Saturday to keep up his Gold Cup credentials? (Ground depending of course, needs more rain as it stands) The betting suggests OTR is slight favourite.

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I think he should if he’s going to end up a Gold Cup horse as a lot of us think he is.

 

[Lobos]

So, has Eklat De Rire got to put away Ontheropes on Saturday to keep up his Gold Cup credentials? (Ground depending of course, needs more rain as it stands) The betting suggests OTR is slight favourite.

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Hopefully both of them will be worthy of a place. OTR does have a good 3lb claimer on so that could make the difference. Both need rain and it looks like they'll get plenty so that shouldn't be an excuse. Great race on prospect. Fiddlerontheroof may topple both of them imo.

 

[TiggerRoll]

Hopefully both of them will be worthy of a place. OTR does have a good 3lb claimer on so that could make the difference. Both need rain and it looks like they'll get plenty so that shouldn't be an excuse. Great race on prospect. Fiddlerontheroof may topple both of them imo.

The claim for O’Keefe is an error. He’s ridden loads more winners than the requirement and it’s gradually being removed from the race cards.

I struggle to understand the discrepancy between OTR and EDR for the Gold Cup given they’re both running here off a similar mark and the market has them equal. They have similar progressive profiles (albeit EDR more so) and Willie has followed the same route with Total Recall previously.

I’ve backed OTR on the exchange with a view to laying off if the market corrects beforehand or he goes on to run a big race tomorrow - ideally either pulling clear or winning himself.

 

[Lobos]

Thanks for the claimer info. Wasn't aware of that. Already got roll up on OTR with PP Gold Cup winner so just thought it could have been a little bit of an advantage for the double to come up trumps !

 

[TiggerRoll]

I was thinking similar and rubbing my hands that he might have fallen under the UK winners level to lose the claim - which is higher than over the sea but unfortunately not quite high enough!

 

[ToniC]

I struggle to understand the discrepancy between OTR and EDR for the Gold Cup given they’re both running here off a similar mark and the market has them equal. They have similar progressive profiles (albeit EDR more so) and Willie has followed the same route with Total Recall previously.

Total recall wasn’t a novice whereas OTR is so probably to do with likelihood of target. If EDR is good enough then there’s pretty much no doubt about his target whereas OTR has options open to him

 

[TiggerRoll]

Total recall wasn’t a novice whereas OTR is so probably to do with likelihood of target. If EDR is good enough then there’s pretty much no doubt about his target whereas OTR has options open to him

Yeah very fair point. I don’t think Willie has much obvious depth to the Gold Cup which makes me think it’s more of a possibility than may usually be the case. Especially so given he’s got a few more runs over fences than might usually be the case for a novice. In my head I have NHC, GC then BANC as the likely order of targets but if he goes on to run well here / in any big handicap and earns a mark 160+ those first two soon become interchangeable for me.

The more I think, the less the BANC seems a suitable option if he’s proven his stamina over further with Willie also having numerous credible runners for that.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

It’s rarely a smart idea for a novice to go for a championship race, I appreciate he’s a second season novice so has reasonable experience but if he wasn’t good enough to get his head in front last season against fellow novices I’m not sure why anyone would think he’d be capable of taking on the best open chasers around and coming out on top…

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Total recall wasn’t a novice whereas OTR is so probably to do with likelihood of target. If EDR is good enough then there’s pretty much no doubt about his target whereas OTR has options open to him

For those of us on OTR for the NHC, what kind of result would work best? If he wins he surely goes GC not NHC. So, I guess we want a slow run race with him getting outpaced at the end so they go down the stamina route?