2022 Gold Cup

[Kevloaf]

Enjoyable reading the last 10 days worth all in one go. Some nonsense of course :highly_amused:


Not a horrible looking ante post market either.... Shishkin at 25/1 is pretty funny though :indecisiveness:





The 1-2-3 from last year are 6/1, 7/1 and 20/1 - with the 20/1 being the dual winner with a 3rd place...


So my nonsense ......

He's the same price as Galvin, and a bigger price than Chantry House. Is he less likely to be involved than those two?


Won't be my only dart, but that price is backable IMO.

 

[Our_Duke]

For those put off by the way CH travels (definitely makes him seem less impressive), its hard to find a horse NDB rides that doesn't look off the bridle by halfway even if they hack up. He travelled quite differently under BG in his Novice Hurdle season, even in the Supreme.

 

[Our_Duke]

Don't disagree re ABP's price. Not one for me as a 10yo, but from a form point of view the price is very fair.

 

[Quevega]

Don't disagree re ABP's price. Not one for me as a 10yo, but from a form point of view the price is very fair.

Of all the 10 year olds to back.
At that price.
He would be the one.
I'm waiting on an entry.

 

[Our_Duke]

Of all the 10 year olds to back.
At that price.
He would be the one.
I'm waiting on an entry.

Yep! Mullins mentioned he'd be running more this year.....his record outside Cheltenham is good without being spectacular. I see myself betting quite small before he runs to cover him, and if he runs with credit without winning, topping up on the day if his price holds with the bookies' promotions

 

[Quevega]

Yep! Mullins mentioned he'd be running more this year.....his record outside Cheltenham is good without being spectacular. I see myself betting quite small before he runs to cover him, and if he runs with credit without winning, topping up on the day if his price holds with the bookies' promotions

I want to see an entry so I can make a call on if I think it's winnable or not.
He's actually a decent option at 4-1 for the place bet on Skybet, that charlie has been focusing on.

 

[charlie]

That's about as interesting as ......

And this guesswork about not being able to stay that you and some others mention.
What basis do you have for this ?

It just seems like something to say, when it makes more sense to just say you don't fancy it.
The pedigree points to him being able to stay well enough. Yeats has produced several stayers, including one or two of your personal favourites.

Obviously only one horse will stay the best in this years Gold Cup, so if every horse is judged against that ideal, and are therefore non stayers, then the odds are in the nay-sayers favour.
But a horse that has not tried the trip but has won over three miles by a distance twice, it just seems like a blurt.
How many second season chasers (by far the most successful category for winning the race) run in the Gold cup having raced over 3 miles 2f ? - Not many !

'Not interesting' will do (bold and underlined is to me what polls are to you) :tongue-new:

1. Yeats is not a tick in the plus column for producing winning staying chasers. If anything, they tend to be over priced and under deliver. The FP point is irrelevant as he's been there and done that (and, is laughably a bigger price in a more winnable race that he's already won - we don't need to discuss FP in a GC thread do we?).

2. As a novice stepping into open company untried over the GC trip vs proper G1 opposition, what do I have at this stage of the season other than guesswork? Thats all I have. It's all you have, especially when coming onto my next point.....

3. Were he 20/1 or 25/1 (which is what I think he should be) then I'd probably park my reservations re trip, but he's as short as 9/1 for a Gold Cup when last years winner is 6/1. They are in a different parish in terms of their credentials and CH deserves proper scrutiny at that price, which is what I'm giving him. As far as I'm concerned it's for those who like him to make a case for why he's a good bet at 9/1 in the absence of substance that should inform that short price, than it is for those who don't like him to explain why that price is shit, which it is (and hopefully, what I'm doing :triumphant

4. At Aintree, Nico niggled him throughout the race and I thought Bailey's had his number. He looked slightly out of his comfort zone at the pace they set IMO and I don't think he would have won. I know it was the end of the season and he could have been tired, and obviously he could improve chunks (and he might have already), but he's priced up as if he has already made that improvement and ran to a proper grade 1 level in open company, which he hasn't.

So yeh, legitimate reasons I think

Saying he 'has won over three miles by a distance twice' is the ultimate blurt, no?:beaten:

The race the other day is barely worth mentioning and we've discussed TBB being a future handicapper, and at Aintree he looked beat before EDR tipped up. If those wide margin wins are enough to inform 9/1 in a Gold Cup then markets have well and truly gone to shit (which obviously isn't your fault, just an observation).

I'd also add, that whilst I have massive respect for Nicky, I think he thinks of Champ as his GC number 1 and if JP has another that emerges I wouldn't put it past CH ending up in the Ryanair, so you don't at this stage with that price even have certainty this is the target.

 

[Kautostar]

Yep! Mullins mentioned he'd be running more this year.....his record outside Cheltenham is good without being spectacular. I see myself betting quite small before he runs to cover him, and if he runs with credit without winning, topping up on the day if his price holds with the bookies' promotions

Why would this be considered a positive?
He won 2 gold cups by being lightly raced, this busier schedule implies to me this is a horse they know isn’t good enough to win a gold cup anymore and will now run more often to pot hunt prize money throughout the season.

 

[Our_Duke]

Why would this be considered a positive?
He won 2 gold cups by being lightly raced, this busier schedule implies to me this is a horse they know isn’t good enough to win a gold cup anymore and will now run more often to pot hunt prize money throughout the season.

Not saying its a negative (or positive) that he's running more - just that it gives punters more options to consider. Should we bet on him now before he runs? Given his overall record, might not be needed (he hasn't always beaten the best horses outside of Cheltenham). He may be a similar price on the day (I think he'll be around 12/1 so may be worth just waiting). There is of course a chance he beats whatever he faces beforehand and shortens (hence, I intend to cover small beforehand and will cover more on the day (assuming nothing too notable happens beforehand)

 

[Quevega]

'Not interesting' will do (bold and underlined is to me what polls are to you) :tongue-new:

1. Yeats is not a tick in the plus column for producing winning staying chasers. If anything, they tend to be over priced and under deliver. The FP point is irrelevant as he's been there and done that (and, is laughably a bigger price in a more winnable race that he's already won - we don't need to discuss FP in a GC thread do we?).

2. As a novice stepping into open company untried over the GC trip vs proper G1 opposition, what do I have at this stage of the season other than guesswork? Thats all I have. It's all you have, especially when coming onto my next point.....

3. Were he 20/1 or 25/1 (which is what I think he should be) then I'd probably park my reservations re trip, but he's as short as 9/1 for a Gold Cup when last years winner is 6/1. They are in a different parish in terms of their credentials and CH deserves proper scrutiny at that price, which is what I'm giving him. As far as I'm concerned it's for those who like him to make a case for why he's a good bet at 9/1 in the absence of substance that should inform that short price, than it is for those who don't like him to explain why that price is shit, which it is (and hopefully, what I'm doing :triumphant

4. At Aintree, Nico niggled him throughout the race and I thought Bailey's had his number. He looked slightly out of his comfort zone at the pace they set IMO and I don't think he would have won. I know it was the end of the season and he could have been tired, and obviously he could improve chunks (and he might have already), but he's priced up as if he has already made that improvement and ran to a proper grade 1 level in open company, which he hasn't.

So yeh, legitimate reasons I think

Saying he 'has won over three miles by a distance twice' is the ultimate blurt, no?:beaten:

The race the other day is barely worth mentioning and we've discussed TBB being a future handicapper, and at Aintree he looked beat before EDR tipped up. If those wide margin wins are enough to inform 9/1 in a Gold Cup then markets have well and truly gone to shit (which obviously isn't your fault, just an observation).

I'd also add, that whilst I have massive respect for Nicky, I think he thinks of Champ as his GC number 1 and if JP has another that emerges I wouldn't put it past CH ending up in the Ryanair, so you don't at this stage with that price even have certainty this is the target.

Lot better reasoning.
Obviously more details and less nothing than what I originally responded too.
I agree with the price. But you could say that about 98% of horses by this time of the season. It’s an easy throw in during a debate but a separate issue to what’s been discussed just now.
I don’t agree with the Yeats comments as he clearly produces stayers. Which was my only point. And less of a guess than yours.
And finally the 2 races he won when another horse fell contained other horses. And if he was out of his comfort zone at aintree then they must have been near death.

it’s unfair on him to downplay those wins IMO
although I did originally.
but we all have to change our minds sometimes, and admit we’re wrong. Like you with honeysuckle who didn’t have the pace and couldn’t jump at one point.

Im not a massive fan myself but not cos I don’t think he’ll stay or was lucky to win his graded races at the festivals. And definitely not cos Nicky thinks champ is number one.

im not a massive fan cos of the price he was and is.
I kind of ignored him originally partly cos of the falls also but have since watched the races several times and noted the subsequent form and now give him more credit than that. Which is why I backed at 16-1 which is probably right on the button of fair.

 

[charlie]

Lot better reasoning.
Obviously more details and less nothing than what I originally responded too.
I agree with the price. But you could say that about 98% of horses by this time of the season. It’s an easy throw in during a debate but a separate issue to what’s been discussed just now.
I don’t agree with the Yeats comments as he clearly produces stayers. Which was my only point. And less of a guess than yours.
And finally the 2 races he won when another horse fell contained other horses. And if he was out of his comfort zone at aintree then they must have been near death.

it’s unfair on him to downplay those wins IMO
although I did originally.
but we all have to change our minds sometimes, and admit we’re wrong. Like you with honeysuckle who didn’t have the pace and couldn’t jump at one point.

Im not a massive fan myself but not cos I don’t think he’ll stay or was lucky to win his graded races at the festivals. And definitely not cos Nicky thinks champ is number one.

im not a massive fan cos of the price he was and is.
I kind of ignored him originally partly cos of the falls also but have since watched the races several times and noted the subsequent form and now give him more credit than that. Which is why I backed at 16-1 which is probably right on the button of fair.

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS. :highly_amused:

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

 

[Topofthegame2021]

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS. :highly_amused:

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

I’m personally a massive fan of Chantry House for the Gold Cup and think he has a massive chance this season. Anyone who has had a look over my book would agree with that!

I thought he won both his grade ones by showing great staying ability in races that looked to be set at a brisk pace. He picked up the pieces I’d admit, but that was because he stayed so well. Therefore I’ve got no issues in thinking he won’t stay the GC trip.

The question is, would I back him now at 9/1 or whatever his shortest is? And the short answer is No. He’s become shorter than what he deserves to be IMO. I think a general 14/1 shot would be about fair considering what was ahead of him in the market.

but I will say… if Nicky thinks Champ is his best hope at a GC then that man needs to be put into a carehome or something :welcoming:

 

[Topofthegame2021]

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS. :highly_amused:

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

oops double post

 

[Quevega]

16/1 is fine tbf, although I think Galvin at 20/1 is a better bet than Chantry House at 10/1, if I had to back one of the horses we've seen already.

Yeats produces some good staying chasers, but their overall calibre at the top level is questionable, evidenced by Chantry House being the highest rated chaser Yeats's has produced. Obviously, thats not reason enough to start opposing him, but it's something I'm mindful of (would be fair to counter with 'Gold Cup winners have been by horses that haven't produced much', Coneygree being a good recent example by Karinga Bay).

First Flooring Porter and now Honeysuckle. You know this is the GC thread right?

Perhaps it is unfair to downplay his wins. I take no issue with forming strong opinions and being wrong, or altering my opinions when I'm wrong. I'll happily concede, having watched all his races back, that I'm probably wrong about Chantry House not staying. I might even be spectacularly wrong Q, you'll enjoy that. He's gone from a 'non stayer' to a complete boat' in less than 24 hours, jelly tots AOTS. :highly_amused:

Chantry House could improve and reach GC calibre, but my issue with him from his novice days is he looks to run in snatches when met with a proper championship race pace.Like him or loathe him, I think thats fair based on what we've seen to date. At Cheltenham as they came out of the back straight the commentator said exactly what we were all thinking - 'Chantry House has been out of his comfort zone for half a mile'. At Aintree he's getting slaps down his neck and niggled when the front two aren't as they approach 4 out. I don't think he'd have won at Aintree, but that doesn't really matter, my wider point with a view to the GC is that he's going to have to improve chunks not to encounter the same issues vs much better horses, and he's not priced up now to account for the improvement that will be needed.

:encouragement:
I agree on Galvin being a better bet and I'm being stubborn not backing him, when he has just as good credentials as any other second season chaser (I know he;s technically third)
My only reason at this point is that him being a Gold cup horse appears by accident, and that's not a good enough reason:stupid:, but I missed the better prices and will wait before adding him, probably when he probably gets beat next time.

With regards his style of running, as I referred to earlier, he seems to be similar to some of the less classy Gold cup horses like Bob's Worth, Don Cossack and maybe even Synchronised.
And similar to other successful cheltenham horses like Inglis Drever, Paisley Park, Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, I know different disciplines and all that but they weren't always easy on the eye travellers.

I think in the Gold Cup there are three types.

1) The ones mentioned above, that seem to need filling up along the way. Which is where I have Chantry House positioned (potentially of course)

2) The Bold front running grinders that just relentlessly gallop. Coneygree, Denman, Native River.

3) Then the Classy 2 miler types that can quicken of a reasonable pace. Kauto Star, Sizing John.

The multiple winners tend to be able to be a bit if 1 and 3. Like Al Boum & Best Mate.
And obviously the best and most consistent jumpers.

Then you have the boats - Minella Indo & Lord Windermere.
Lots of boats get placed to be fair. And all of the 3 types end up boat like as they age.
To be fair to Minella Indo, he's probably a classier boat than most, but still boat like. IMO.

Agree on the price but I'd imagine the bookies factor in the great record that second season chasers have in this race, 7 and 8 yr olds tend to win or place, even when they have an up and down second season. It'd be nice if they didn't notice the trends but in this case they do. As a result the prices of some more high profile novice champions are a bit rotten.

 

[Rigga]

Fakir D to step up in trip perhaps ?

 

[darlojim]

Fakir D to step up in trip perhaps ?

They've certainly said they will try him again at 3 miles. He looked pretty impressive today giving away a few lbs to his rivals who were race fit and he put it to bed easily. He could easily be open to more improvement and has plenty of festival form so aslong as he runs well enough when stepped up to 3, I can definitely see Joseph sending him here. The 66s still there with PP might be worth chancing.

One thing I did notice today was his jumping seemed to be pretty economical without making any errors as he can be prone to do.

 

[Lobos]

Fakir D to step up in trip perhaps ?

Absobloodylutely. A Plus Tard made the transition and I'd say Fakir is of a similar type.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Lot of chat about Galvin and Chantry House, and i totally understand why.
Both have fair chances imo.
Comparing the two i see totally different horses.
Chantry House has touch of class about him with his supreme effort behind a superstar and another good one........could not imagine Galvin doing that.
Galvin though could well be perfectly suited to the Gold Cup conditions......CH may not.
One of the things i love about this race, the different types that go for it.

For me CH has improved and improved the muore races he has and the further he goes in trip, and looks like he will stay further still. But has a ? there.
Galvin certainly stays!! And i could see him hunting round and being put in the race late on passing horses.........but is he good enough?

Very intriguing.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Next Destination:

Start of in the Betfair Chase
PN thinks he could be a Grand National Horse in the future, and the next few runs will tell him if he's good enough to go the GC or not

P.S. PN also thinks he made the wrong decision to go for the NHC last season and not the 'RSA'

Interesting

Personally think he would have won the RSA the way that race panned out.
Hes 10 next March but is fairly lightly raced for his age.
Look at Galvins price he could be value at current odds, especially if he runs a big race in the Betfair.
Worth a few bob imo.

 

[Bonjers]

Looks like Champ is a no-go for the Betfair on Saturday.