2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[ComplyOrDie]

I think when you read this back with hindsight, in a few years time, you'd think..... maybe my pocket was ruling my head?

Imagine looking at things fresh, right now, with no ante post bets..... is Bob Olinger CLEARLY a better chaser over the intermediate trip than Galopin des Champs?

I can't see how anyone would come to that conclusion.

From a singles perspective Galopin is a better winner in the Turners than Bob is for me, but I just think GDC will get done for a turn of foot by Bob.

I agree with what Barry Geraghty and many others have said, that GDC was looking his best at the end of the 2m5 1/2f race at the DRF. He's now got to drop 2f when it looked obvious (to me) that the extra 2 1/2f would be much more convenient for him.

Strange decision, IMO.

 

[That Horse]

You aren’t the only one. All I can say is, if GDC does go Turners as it now looks like, I’ll be booing him at the start, and cheering Bob from the Guinness stand…

Bit harsh on the horse who hasn't had a say in what race he goes in. He probably won't understand what you're doing either. Probably better to boo Willie when he collects his trophy after the race

 

[Kevloaf]

I think a lot of us have just got his target wrong - we should be crying out for this clash.

:applouse:
100%


I'm in the same boat.... 25/1 RSA versus 6/4 JLT should have me biased as well....


Like the rest of you knuckleheads :highly_amused::highly_amused::beaten:

 

[Lobos]

Sounds like if GDC ran in the RSA he'd likely have 3 very credible opponents in BMG, Ahoy Senor and now L'Homme Presse. In the Marsh he has 1. There's Mullins thought process.

 

[Appreciate It]

There has been so much talk about how difficult it has been to pull GDC up after his races. Frankly, I don't think they'd need to bother trying to settle him. He'd just go at that 2m 5f pace for another 3 furlongs, no bother.

 

[Kevloaf]

There has been so much talk about how difficult it has been to pull GDC up after his races. Frankly, I don't think they'd need to bother trying to settle him. He'd just go at that 2m 5f pace for another 3 furlongs, no bother.

Can he not go at that pace over 2m3+f and win too though?



There isn't that much difference?

 

[Gilly]

I firmly believe GDC will run here.

Year after year you always hear Willie Mullins saying the phrase "I put horses in races where they have the best chance of winning".

Imo, Bob is a well bigger threat to GDC than BMG, which leads me to believe that common sense will prevail and we will see GDC line up here

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Sounds like if GDC ran in the RSA he'd likely have 3 very credible opponents in BMG, Ahoy Senor and now L'Homme Presse. In the Marsh he has 1. There's Mullins thought process.

He's been saying GDC for the Turners for a while now, long before L'Homme Presse was confirmed for the Festival Novices Chase. So he would have have two credible opponents in each up until today. No thought process.

 

[Lobos]

He's been saying GDC for the Turners for a while now, long before L'Homme Presse was confirmed for the Festival Novices Chase. So he would have have two credible opponents in each up until today. No thought process.

Venetia has long been saying L'Homme Presse to the RSA unless it came up Soft ground Fez. Thought process.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

I'm willing to just admit i've got it wrong in being so involved with GDC going the RSA route. The Turners is basically half a furlong shorter in trip than the Martin Pipe trip he won so well over isn't it? Definitely a bit of a stretch to say the Turners distance is wrong for him. That said, I feel pretty confident he'd win an RSA whereas the Turners v Bob feels like a real 50/50. That's why I find it odd, no pocket talking.

 

[Mighty]

Bit harsh on the horse who hasn't had a say in what race he goes in. He probably won't understand what you're doing either. Probably better to boo Willie when he collects his trophy after the race

Fair point! Currently treating this thread as a free therapy session tbh… and I know Willie to be fair to him has said nothing either way. Just one of those things where you live and learn, and hope Bob wins! :boxing:

If I can get the therapy done now I can look forward to a good clash on the day…

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Venetia has long been saying L'Homme Presse to the RSA unless it came up Soft ground Fez. Thought process.

That's news to me. Do you think Willie was waiting to see what Venetia done with L'Homme Presse before deciding where his future Gold Cup hope can run?

 

[Lobos]

That's news to me. Do you think Willie was waiting to see what Venetia done with L'Homme Presse before deciding where his future Gold Cup hope can run?

Perhaps Willie has been chatting her up. She is still single by all accounts. Classy bird.

 

[Appreciate It]

Can he not go at that pace over 2m3+f and win too though?



There isn't that much difference?

I'm in no doubt that he can, and that if he does, he'll win. In doing so he'll murder two 25/1 tickets (Bob - Turners and GDC - RSA) Which is annoying.

Personally, i think he'd go bloody close in this years Arkle.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm willing to just admit i've got it wrong in being so involved with GDC going the RSA route. The Turners is basically half a furlong shorter in trip than the Martin Pipe trip he won so well over isn't it? Definitely a bit of a stretch to say the Turners distance is wrong for him. That said, I feel pretty confident he'd win an RSA whereas the Turners v Bob feels like a real 50/50. That's why I find it odd, no pocket talking.

That is a perfectly fair assessment.

With that being the case, them wanting to go for the 50/50, makes me think they don't think it's 50/50, so I know which way I'd side.

I'm 55/45 in side of GDC.

Obviously won't be shocked either way.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm 55/45 in side of GDC.

I remember when you were adamant Gaillard Du Mesnil would beat Bob in the Ballymore.

I've decided, you just don't like Bob :highly_amused:

 

[Ice]

I think when you read this back with hindsight, in a few years time, you'd think..... maybe my pocket was ruling my head?

Imagine looking at things fresh, right now, with no ante post bets..... is Bob Olinger CLEARLY a better chaser over the intermediate trip than Galopin des Champs?

I can't see how anyone would come to that conclusion.


Ice - you don't get the decision? He's literally ran at the intermediate trip twice, looking like an absolute world-beater in one of those runs, and you don't get it?

Future Gold Cup horse has nothing to do with it does it? What's Bob Olinger's ceiling? A future Ryanair horse at best?

I think being a future gold cup horse is what willie mullins would be hoping for and the banc is a natural stepping stone to it, of course he could go turners and win that and still go to a gold cup but the banc would be more logical. I wouldn't be as confident on bob staying the gold cup distance as gdc and he could be a horse suited to the Ryanair trip, like Allaho but i would love to see them both there in the 2023 gold cup.

 

[Kevloaf]

I remember when you were adamant Gaillard Du Mesnil would beat Bob in the Ballymore.

I've decided, you just don't like Bob :highly_amused:

Where have you had that from?!

Given Galvin and Bob Olinger won me the most money I have ever won, I can assure you I love Bob Olinger.

Also, this was my Ballymore book last year.... (in Jan)......

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Where have you had that from?!

It was from a debate we had on the forum last season

 

[ToniC]

He's literally ran at the intermediate trip twice, looking like an absolute world-beater in one of those runs, and you don't get it?

I absolutely get this logic on the surface of it. However maybe it was confirmation bias but I remember us all pretty much collectively feeling re-assured after the flogas he was a more likely rsa runner than JLT. And while that sounds counterintuitive as you rightly say, Willie has run 19 horses since 2010 in the flogas that then went to Cheltenham; 13 of those went in the RSA compared to 6 in the shorter race. That’s despite him running more horses in the shorter race too overall. Just over two-thirds of all his RSA runners since 2010, had run in the flogas Chase prior. And 14 of his 19 rsa runners in that period had never(!) ran in a chase of 23 furlongs or further.

Like it seems pretty obvious now, he’s looked a machine over 20 furlongs so keep him there, but I can see why we collectively thought what we did.

Fwiw, Mullins has ran 6 future-JLT horses in the flogas Chase and their record is 3 3rd places, 3 unplaced; horses he ran in the killiney novices Chase are 3 winners, a 3rd place and 3 unplaced.