2022 Browns Advisory Novices (3m) Chase - ex RSA

[opatcho]

GDC could be a Vautour-like chaser
you wont be booing much if he wins, travels and jumps like a Vautour

 

[Craigy14]

I took the comment about Bobs ceiling as a bit of slander to be honest, fair enough if it wasn't.

I think the debate over GDC coming here would be lessened if it was a 2.5m race as opposed to an extended 2.3m. His career so far is a prototype for 3m so would be breaking the norm for him to come here.

Looking back only 2 horses in the last 10 years to win the JLT (Black Hercules and Shattered Love) have ever raced over 3m before running in it - To memory SL was a soft ground and everyone with a pulse decided to fall in BH.

Again the MP is littered with winners who go on to be 3milers in Don Poli, Champagne Classic, Sire Des Champs.

Again the 3m race he won at Punchestown is typically a route to a staying chaser, Next Destination, Delta Work, Indo, Allaho (went RSA) etc.

If he had grade 1 form at novice hurdle level for the trip I think people would be a bit more understanding/on his side, but his whole career screams 3m novice chaser which will cause some - myself included - to be skeptical. I'm not the greatest jump analyser in the world but didn't Willie also say his jumping looked worse down the back the last day when he was going too quick? He will need to be moving at some pace to make Bobs jumping come under pressure so if his worsens at pace it takes a bit of his advantage away too?



Edit: would I be smashing into him now? No, because there is an element of unknown, if GDC comes here then they will
both drift out and I'd expect better odds on the day for both. I imagine I'd keep it a watching brief though and just enjoy the spectacle.

This is pretty much where I am with it, said as much week or so ago, if WPM was concerned for him jumping at that pace over 2m 5f then surely the same concerns arise dropping pretty much 2f for the Turners?

Galopin Des Champs jumping was not as good as it was on debut, but the flip side to all of the above is, he could just set his own pace as we are likely to have such a small field now. Although I don’t think he’ll go quick enough to put ‘that’ much pressure on Bobs jumping for it make all the difference. Bob is a quicker horse, I think we can all agree on that. He hasn’t looked as natural maybe, as GDC did on debut, but certainly not enough to be a concern for me.

Anyway, moving onto this race now, suppose it opens it right up. We now have potentially 8 in with a shout here I reckon? Could make cases for a lot of them imo.

Bravemansgame
Ahoy Senor
L’Homme Presse
Capodanno
Dusart
Beacon Edge
Fury Road
Gaillard Du Mesnil

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Don’t really see what the issue is re GDC.
His best performance thus far in his career was over a distance more akin to the Turners, and he’s then ran well over the same sort of distance.
But then I did not guess he would be stepping up to the BANC and take prices accordingly early doors. Maybe I would think differently had I done that, but I would like to think I wouldn’t.
End if the day he’s trained by the best or certainly one of the best, and proven very good at around two and a half miles, and looking at his main opponent, he’s a better jumper than him….. so far.
So all in all makes sense to me if the decision is Turners for GDC.
As for the Gold Cup…… still plenty of time for the step up to happen.
GDC v Bob O, nice to look forward to!!!

 

[DenmanSacre]

For those on GDC for this race, you probably did make the right decision at the time.

If Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow were both fit and well all season, one would have gone to the Arkle and the other to the Turners. This would also likely have left Blue Lord for the Turners and HEC/Saint Sam for the Arkle. GDC would then have gone to the Brown Advisory IMO.

As AI didn't go chasing and Ferny is out, it has had an unfortunate consequence for some of you but a match race between Bob and GDC will be brilliant.

 

[Irish Rugby]

For those on GDC for this race, you probably did make the right decision at the time.

If Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow were both fit and well all season, one would have gone to the Arkle and the other to the Turners. This would also likely have left Blue Lord for the Turners and HEC/Saint Sam for the Arkle. GDC would then have gone to the Brown Advisory IMO.

As AI didn't go chasing and Ferny is out, it has had an unfortunate consequence for some of you but a match race between Bob and GDC will be brilliant.

I agree and that has how it has worked out. Monkfish going out early scuppered the yard's no. 1 shot at the Gold Cup. That seems a long time ago now.

If GDC beats Bob, Willie can rest easy but if he loses and also doesn't bring home the Arkle or the BANC, the loss of Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow will be evermore felt.

 

[Big Bucks]

I see your point DS and could well be all part of the jig saw, but we will never know! Tbf to Willie he never mentioned Here for GDC, it was all us punters who assumed and talked up he was a good thing here from way out. But Willie always hinted he didn't need to step up, and was happy with his speed etc

He also had James Du Berlais who I think would have had a chance in the turners too! So you're probably right!

Willie's ammunition is crazy this year!

 

[DenmanSacre]

I see your point DS and could well be all part of the jig saw, but we will never know! Tbf to Willie he never mentioned Here for GDC, it was all us punters who assumed and talked up he was a good thing here from way out. But Willie always hinted he didn't need to step up, and was happy with his speed etc

He also had James Du Berlais who I think would have had a chance in the turners too! So you're probably right!

Willie's ammunition is crazy this year!

I forgot about JDB. Crazy the horses he is missing though injury this year.

 

[Odin]

I see your point DS and could well be all part of the jig saw, but we will never know! Tbf to Willie he never mentioned Here for GDC, it was all us punters who assumed and talked up he was a good thing here from way out. But Willie always hinted he didn't need to step up, and was happy with his speed etc

He also had James Du Berlais who I think would have had a chance in the turners too! So you're probably right!

Willie's ammunition is crazy this year!

Although never mentioning the RSA directly that I can recall (only 'we were going to follow the Don Poli route with him' in a recent stable tour), both of these quotes indicate a step up in trip is more likely than not to me..

Post season debut
"Galopin Des Champs was very impressive. I thought he was good but I didn't think he was that good, that was just something else. He was so effortless over all his fences. Paul said he was fantastic early on and at a few that he met short he just danced in front of his fences and took them at his stride. He did everything right and galloped away through the line and beyond it. He looks a very, very exciting horse for the future, especially going over a trip. He's five going six so he's very young. All options are open for him - Willie Mullins, trainer."

Post DRF
"I wasn't as happy watching Galopin Des Champs jumping at Grade 1 pace as I was at Christmas. My heart was in my mouth going down the back. I thought a few times he was meeting fences on the wrong side and he just stood back at them. By all accounts, it was a much faster pace and Paul didn't want to keep going on with him like he did at Christmas because he felt with softer ground and everything, he had to learn a little bit today, and Paul thought he achieved that - Willie Mullins, trainer. It was a proper race and we went a proper gallop, and Galopin Des Champs still hit the line well. We know he stays but when he puts up a performance like that over that trip, deciding where to go next is a nice problem to have. He is right up there with any of the novices I've ridden. He is a real natural, so we'll see where he ends up - Paul Townend, jockey."

FWIW (which isn't a lot tbh), IF he's a Gold Cup horse next year, this would be the right race for him. If they don't think he's a Gold Cup horse next year, they're probably sending him the right way. I just can't tally the idea that he was going too fast last time so dropping him 3f is the right call but it seems irrelevant now and the Turners will be a great race to watch because of it.

 

[Big Bucks]

I may be mistaken but was it not Patrick that said the Don poli route?

 

[Odin]

I may be mistaken but was it not Patrick that said the Don poli route?

Preseason yes, but in one of the recent stable tours Willie also mentioned it - obviously not public knowledge that he'd said it until then though

 

[Exar Essay]

I may be mistaken but was it not Patrick that said the Don poli route?

17th Oct in the RP: "I imagine he [Galopin] is nailed to the Don Poli path".

Can't blame punters for latching on to a view of such certainty.

 

[Big Bucks]

Preseason yes, but in one of the recent stable tours Willie also mentioned it - obviously not public knowledge that he'd said it until then though

Fair enough I must have missed that. I know Patrick said it in a RP colounm, but wasn't aware of Willie saying it.

 

[Many Clouds]

Don’t really see what the issue is re GDC.
His best performance thus far in his career was over a distance more akin to the Turners, and he’s then ran well over the same sort of distance.
But then I did not guess he would be stepping up to the BANC and take prices accordingly early doors. Maybe I would think differently had I done that, but I would like to think I wouldn’t.
End if the day he’s trained by the best or certainly one of the best, and proven very good at around two and a half miles, and looking at his main opponent, he’s a better jumper than him….. so far.
So all in all makes sense to me if the decision is Turners for GDC.
As for the Gold Cup…… still plenty of time for the step up to happen.
GDC v Bob O, nice to look forward to!!!

Easy to argue his best performance was over 3 mile at Punchestown in April. For me, that was the WOW moment the way he looked so effortless in victory.

​​​​​​So obviously then he didn't race again for another 8 months, in that time people who were impressed by that run and wanted to back him for Cheltenham had to make a decision on which race was more likely for him the 3 mile race or the extended 2m3f race, the previous form we had to go off was beating Langer Dan 2 lengths in the Martin pipe over 2m4f followed up by a huge improvement over 3mile where he destroyed a good field in a grade one.

For me it was only natural to think 3miles was going to be the trip as he looked so much more impressive going up in trip, never even considered dropping right back down until mullins first mentioned it. I think we were all right to think the way we did and back him for here, it's just unfortunately not worked out, I'm gutted about it but will get over it, still think it's the wrong decision by mullins not cos of pocket speak I just think GDC will look unreal the further he goes so would love to see him over 3 miles even if I hadn't backed him. Gonna be a bit sad when he gets turned over by Bob and they both could have won their races and set up for a mouth watering clash further down the road.

​​​​​

 

[Rooster Booster]

Fuck me it’s just taken 30 minutes to catch up on this thread and I haven’t read anything I hadn’t already read many times before (not a criticism...I get it) other than one poster Mighty I think it was that completely hit the nail on the head when they said they were using it as a free therapy session (again which I totally get and refreshingly honest btw not a criticism). Do we need a new thread to actually discuss the race seeing as the complexion has changed somewhat recently. Personally I am a huge fan of LP and he gets my vote but this is looking like a real race to savour and it’s a shame we aren’t allowing ourselves to enjoy the build up.

 

[Odin]

Fuck me it’s just taken 30 minutes to catch up on this thread and I haven’t read anything I hadn’t already read many times before (not a criticism...I get it) other than one poster Mighty I think it was that completely hit the nail on the head when they said they were using it as a free therapy session (again which I totally get and refreshingly honest btw not a criticism). Do we need a new thread to actually discuss the race seeing as the complexion has changed somewhat recently. Personally I am a huge fan of LP and he gets my vote but this is looking like a real race to savour and it’s a shame we aren’t allowing ourselves to enjoy the build up.

Any worries re the virus going around the yard with respect to LP?

 

[Lobos]

Any worries re the virus going around the yard with respect to LP?

Bound to be a slight worry but her horses are firing again so it looks positive

 

[Rooster Booster]

Any worries re the virus going around the yard with respect to LP?

I guess He either gets it or he doesnt ...the horses that are running with it in their system are pulling up , those that don’t have it in their system are running as well as ever ....so it’s pretty binary. Yes I’m worried but less so than if it were a general malaise.

 

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Looked at the weather and it's going to be minimal rain before and ground should be pretty decent
It's going to be 15c and sunny on the Tuesday and nice for the week, ground will dry out
I suspect once Willie see's how the ground is going to dry out as the Festival progresses, I CANNOT think how he is NOT going to run Galopin Des Champs in the Brown Advisory over 3m
If he runs in the 3m on Wednesday the ground will be a little softer, trip will suit and all boxes are ticked in my thoughts
However if he waits till the Turners on the Thursday the ground will be that bit faster after a sunny Wednesday and the trip is only 2m 3f (and a bit), I'm not 100% convinced Willie realises the trip is so short from his chats ?????
Once they discuss this, look at the weather I think th switch will be made and he'll go 3m
Well thats how I see it anyway
Thoughts ???
Talking sense or utter garbage ?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

If he runs in the 3m on Wednesday the ground will be a little softer

Probably a discussion for the going/weather thread but if it does look warm and dry they can water the New Course up to Wed night so that will slow the ground for the Turners (on the Thursday), it's extremely unlikely they'll have any plans to water the Old Course before racing because of the forecast rain Thur/Fri/Sat/Sun...

 

[Rooster Booster]

Probably a discussion for the going/weather thread but if it does look warm and dry they can water the New Course up to Wed night so that will slow the ground for the Turners (on the Thursday), it's extremely unlikely they'll have any plans to water the Old Course before racing because of the forecast rain Thur/Fri/Sat/Sun...

Agree ...Wednesday and Friday will most likely have the fastest ground imo.