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2021 Marsh Novices Chase

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Atlantic Viking said:
14 scratched from this:

Andy Dufresne
Espoir De Romay
Foxyjacks
Harambe
If The Cap Fits
Marown
Pic D'Orhy
Protektorat
Royale Pagaille
Saint Turgeon
Zambella
Janidil
Klassical Dream
Lord Royal
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Colreevy not scratched?

25/1 or 14/1 without EA or 12/1 without EA NRNB

Could Chantry House be a bet here?
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Much better from Chantry House there, jumped ok.
Not given up on him yet, but here or RSA?
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Yeah was a lot better today. His jumping got better as the race went on, was quite impressed. Also got tight to the last but adjusted very well.
 
Better from Chantry but agree looks more suited to an RSA so won't be backing him for this. Thought the second was given a pretty soft ride could be one for a handicap.
 
The old Chantry ew bets are back alive for this from the summer, hopefully places behind Envoi.
 
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Yeah, Sporting John is going RSA isn't he?

I'd guess Chantry House here and Andy Dufrense to the handicap chase.
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah, Sporting John is going RSA isn't he?

I'd guess Chantry House here and Andy Dufrense to the handicap chase.
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I’d agree with that.

They wouldn’t have scratched Chantry from the Brown Advisory (RSA) if there was any chance he’d be going that way. Wouldn’t make sense to now have to supplement him.

They can now run one in each race to take on the short priced favs.
 
Craigy14 said:
I’d agree with that.

They wouldn’t have scratched Chantry from the Brown Advisory (RSA) if there was any chance he’d be going that way. Wouldn’t make sense to now have to supplement him.

They can now run one in each race to take on the short priced favs.
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Yep, and be good to see a challenge to the favs, and JP and Hendo will certainly relish that.
 
Can Chantry House run in the Plate ?? Into 6's fav for the race.
 
Lobos said:
Can Chantry House run in the Plate ?? Into 6's fav for the race.
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He 'can'.

A woeful 6/1 shot IMO, not going to be 'dropped' for winning today, so as a handicapper he'd have less chance than he did beforehand.


I think he'll go for the Marsh myself, and I wouldn't give him two seconds more thought as a 6/1 fav in the Festival Plate personally, if he wins that, at that price, I don't care.
 
Kevloaf said:
He 'can'.

A woeful 6/1 shot IMO, not going to be 'dropped' for winning today, so as a handicapper he'd have less chance than he did beforehand.


I think he'll go for the Marsh myself, and I wouldn't give him two seconds more thought as a 6/1 fav in the Festival Plate personally, if he wins that, at that price, I don't care.
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While this is technically true - for a horse like him there is a lot of uncertainty around ability built into the price which new evidence has to impact. So new price could be value in these cases and shouldn't (imo) be looked at the way you're framing it all the time
 
thorne365 said:
While this is technically true - for a horse like him there is a lot of uncertainty around ability built into the price which new evidence has to impact. So new price could be value in these cases and shouldn't (imo) be looked at the way you're framing it all the time
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Yeah I see what you're saying.

In this case, he's gone from 8/1 fav to 6/1 fav. (9/1 to 7/1 with 365)


I don't think either were good bets. I wouldn't have considered 9/1 before that race a good bet, and I don't think 7/1 is now.

I'd want more value for uncertain ability.
 
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Have backed CH TWAR at 14's so I'd be happier if he went for the Plate or maybe even Coral Cup rather than taking on Envoi. Aware he'd be close to top weight but he's a classy novice and has now had 3 runs so who's to say he can't do it.
 
Kevloaf said:
He 'can'.

A woeful 6/1 shot IMO, not going to be 'dropped' for winning today, so as a handicapper he'd have less chance than he did beforehand.


I think he'll go for the Marsh myself, and I wouldn't give him two seconds more thought as a 6/1 fav in the Festival Plate personally, if he wins that, at that price, I don't care.
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It's funny how we ignore that he was Favourite for this race prior to even getting an official chase mark having completed three starts (as of today).
And it's owned by JP ?
Obviously they have done the same with Dickie Diver also, and he's only run the once !!!
But with this horse, is there something in it ?

Nicky only mentions the graded races of course.

I know they will be wary of JP horses in handicaps, but it does seem an over reaction on the bookies behalf, for last years successes.
Who's fucking backing them at these prices antepost ?


In fact if anyone has backed Dickie Diver for the ultima please own up now, as you need help :stupid:
ComplyOrDie & The King Pimm

don't need to respond as we know they both back every horse in training at some point during the season.
 
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Kevloaf said:
Yeah, Sporting John is going RSA isn't he?
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Unless it’s “very soft” in which case he runs in this - according to Hobbs today.

Hobbs said: “We’ve taken Sporting John out of the Arkle and he will either now run in the Marsh or what was the RSA. It will all depend on what the ground conditions are like.

“If the ground was very soft you would stick to two and a half in the Marsh but if it wasn’t you would probably look at going further with him.

“It was obviously very pleasing to see him win like he did and warm to the task at Sandown as it shows he is going in the right direction.”
 
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