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2021 Marsh Novices Chase

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Middle_Of_March said:
For me Allart is the best of those lot and is the best priced horse of them too.
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I like Allart too, but we've heard nothing about him since that fall, and I'd be worried about going to the festival on the back of a fall.
 
Kevloaf said:
In the without Envoi Allen market.....

It's 10/1 bar, not going to type my thoughts on them all, but a market where surely we can find some value NRNB?

Here is the market on oddschecker - NRNB

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/marsh-novices-chase/w-o-envoi-allen
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I've been through the market and drawn lines through 15 before getting to one I quite like (and have never historically liked:playful:):

Energumene - wont go, forget it
Monkfish - wont go, forget it
Shan Blue - way too short @ 3/1 especially off the back of a tough race
Sporting John - definitely wants 3m and is probably RSA bound
Royal Pagaille - wont go, forget it
Fusil Raffles - way too short @ 6/1 on form IMO
Allart - 13/2 off a fall doesn't appeal at all
Hitman - wont go, forget it
Latest Exhibition - wont go, forget it
Franco De Port - Cheltenham ? and single figures? and tough race last time ? - like, but not for me
Chatham Street Lad - handicap bound IMO and can handle top weight in BA
Chantry House - not good enough, forget it.
Klassical Dream - wellbeing? might not go? too many question marks.
Andy Dufresne - 10/1 still seems skinny, never been to Cheltenham
Darver Star - never liked him, good enough ? trip ?
Protektorat @ 12/1

I have never been the biggest fan of Protektorat, but he has some big ticks here IMO:

1. DS has ruled out the RSA and said all roads lead here, so you'll get a run for your money
2. He's proven himself around Cheltenham over fences impressively in a decent time
3. He'll be happy popping out v Shan Blue, and wont be a complicated ride

I do like Franco De Port, Shan Blue and Andy Dufresne, but all three have had tough ish races in recent days, particularly Shan Blue.

Protektorat will be fresh, we know this is where he will end up, he's proven at Cheltenham, he has lots of experience around Cheltenham, he might not quite see out 3m but he definitely will 2m5f, and his jumping last time at Cheltenham was very good.

I don't think there's a horse in the market listed above him that can claim to tick all those boxes, so for me he's brilliant EW value @ 12/1 in the market W/O Envoi Allen.
 
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charlie said:
I've been through the market and drawn lines through 15 before getting to one I quite like (and have never historically liked:playful:):

Energumene - wont go, forget it
Monkfish - wont go, forget it
Shan Blue - way too short @ 3/1 especially off the back of a tough race
Sporting John - definitely wants 3m and is probably RSA bound
Royal Pagaille - wont go, forget it
Fusil Raffles - way too short @ 6/1 on form IMO
Allart - 13/2 off a fall doesn't appeal at all
Hitman - wont go, forget it
Latest Exhibition - wont go, forget it
Franco De Port - Cheltenham ? and single figures? and tough race last time ? - like, but not for me
Chatham Street Lad - handicap bound IMO and can handle top weight in BA
Chantry House - not good enough, forget it.
Klassical Dream - wellbeing? might not go? too many question marks.
Andy Dufresne - 10/1 still seems skinny, never been to Cheltenham
Darver Star - never liked him, good enough ? trip ?
Protektorat @ 12/1

I have never been the biggest fan of Protektorat, but he has some big ticks here IMO:

1. DS has ruled out the RSA and said all roads lead here, so you'll get a run for your money
2. He's proven himself around Cheltenham over fences impressively in a decent time
3. He'll be happy popping out v Shan Blue, and wont be a complicated ride

I do like Franco De Port, Shan Blue and Andy Dufresne, but all three have had tough ish races in recent days, particularly Shan Blue.

Protektorat will be fresh, we know this is where he will end up, he's proven at Cheltenham, he has lots of experience around Cheltenham, he might not quite see out 3m but he definitely will 2m5f, and his jumping last time at Cheltenham was very good.

I don't think there's a horse in the market listed above him that can claim to tick all those boxes, so for me he's brilliant EW value @ 12/1 in the market W/O Envoi Allen.
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Caution Charlie. Connections changed their mind after Wincanton and said that he will be stepped up in trip for the spring so would recommend nrnb if you are parting with hard earned.
 
Quite like the case charlie :encouragement:

I'd happily back two or three E/W in the w/out market, and Protektorat would be one. I'd be looking at Andy Dufresne as well, and also Asterion Forlonge, even though you haven't mentioned him.

I like the Monkfish form line from the DRF and I feel AF was mostly there just to get round, and was never there to be put into the race. I don't have an issue with him jumping left handed, he wasn't too bad at the DRF (in fact he probably jumped more to the left than right), he made some novicey mistakes, but it wasn't for going left handed. Notice the 'he can't jump left handed' brigade weren't out in force after the race either, which tells me enough. As he's been fairly slammed on social media (and on here) for it. Turning for home against Monkfish he was travelling better than both Latest Exhibiton and Andy Dufresne, despite travelling mostly wide throughout, before being asked to challenge, which of course he couldn't do. I'd say all is not lost with him just yet.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Quite like the case charlie :encouragement:

I'd happily back two or three E/W in the w/out market, and Protektorat would be one. I'd be looking at Andy Dufresne as well, and also Asterion Forlonge, even though you haven't mentioned him.

I like the Monkfish form line from the DRF and I feel AF was mostly there just to get round, and was never there to be put into the race. I don't have an issue with him jumping left handed, he wasn't too bad at the DRF (in fact he probably jumped more to the left than right), he made some novicey mistakes, but it wasn't for going left handed. Notice the 'he can't jump left handed' brigade weren't out in force after the race either, which tells me enough. As he's been fairly slammed on social media (and on here) for it. Turning for home against Monkfish he was travelling better than both Latest Exhibiton and Andy Dufresne, despite travelling mostly wide throughout, before being asked to challenge, which of course he couldn't do. I'd say all is not lost with him just yet.
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Cheers pal. I would love and I mean LOVE Asterion Forlonge to rick up here. LTO was a finish a race job IMO, but he wouldn't have got near Monkfish anyway
 
Rooster Booster said:
Caution Charlie. Connections changed their mind after Wincanton and said that he will be stepped up in trip for the spring so would recommend nrnb if you are parting with hard earned.
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Ah right, thanks for that. Haven't pulled the trigger yet. I was going off the interview he gave pre Wincanton where he ruled out 3m and said he wouldn't even get an entry - he's now entered, so that makes sense
 
Backed A Forlonge here without the fav market but chanced with Hill who aren’t nrnb but the bet was 20/1.

The horse makes me furious from the supreme run but he is talented with an engine, the run Sunday was fine and back for confidence with his recent falls and wasn’t out to his right much on the wing which was some encouragement.
 
Been chatting to Envoi Allen’s stable lass on Twitter and she’s excited for next month and they’d be gutted if he doesn’t win the marsh - hardly breaking news but at least everything is all systems go
 
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EnvoyAllen said:
Baby Gordon?
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yeah !
It was a reference to the way the lad talked compared to Gordon.
Obviously a shit joke if I have to explain it. :sorrow:
I'll try and do better.
 
Great video but even just seeing EA wandering around the stable with a bairn on his back makes me nervous :biggrin-new: In my minds eye he's tucked up cosy watching netflix in a stable covered in the best bubble wrap money can buy.
 
Hendo not confident at all that Allart will make Fez after his fall. Needs a run and will find it tough to fit one in.
 
Lobos said:
Hendo not confident at all that Allart will make Fez after his fall. Needs a run and will find it tough to fit one in.
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I came out of reading Hendo's blog with a different impression. I thought he sounded desperate to get Allart to the Marsh one way or another and the target was crystal clear - so I was more positive after reading that!
 
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