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2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

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Kevloaf said:
Are people sure Wide Receiver is running for a handicap mark?


The 25/1 NRMB for him is surely a poke at nothing.

I know we all assume he's the one for the Martin Pipe - but Gordon does actually surely need a horse to run in the Ballymore?
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I quite like that angle. Good call for cover and insurance with the nrnb.
 
Kevloaf said:
Are people sure Wide Receiver is running for a handicap mark?


The 25/1 NRMB for him is surely a poke at nothing.

I know we all assume he's the one for the Martin Pipe - but Gordon does actually surely need a horse to run in the Ballymore?
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Even so, 1 win in 4 hurdles starts is hardly inspiring stuff, and you'd have to back Ashdale Bob following the form line, would you not? I get WR is Gordon Elliotts (so automatically assume he finds a decent Ballymore runner) but AB has him covered, quite comfortably I'd say, on the form we know of.

We could still see Ballyadam come here I guess. He's also got the horse I like, in Magic Tricks, who could go for either but I'm hoping Supreme, and given Ballyadam was well beaten over 2m LTO, excuses or not, I'd be more inclined to think he'd step him up in trip.

I agree, overall he's a poke to nothing, as you'll likely get your money back.
 
Big Bucks said:
I quite like that angle. Good call for cover and insurance with the nrnb.
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Has to be odds on you just get your money back, but he's not exactly a complete rag in the G1 field on Wednesday, so if he won that... no way he's still 25/1 and if he doesn't win, he goes for the handicap we all feel he's going for anyway...
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Even so, 1 win in 4 hurdles starts is hardly inspiring stuff, and you'd have to back Ashdale Bob following the form line, would you not? I get WR is Gordon Elliotts (so automatically assume he finds a decent Ballymore runner) but AB has him covered, quite comfortably I'd say, on the form we know of.

We could still see Ballyadam come here I guess. He's also got the horse I like, in Magic Tricks, who could go for either but I'm hoping Supreme, and given Ballyadam was well beaten over 2m LTO, excuses or not, I'd be more inclined to think he'd step him up in trip.

I agree, overall he's a poke to nothing, as you'll likely get your money back.
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Well he has him covered as of now, the whole thing revolves around the G1 on Wednesday.

If that race wasn't happened, Wide Receiver would be a pointless bet...... the fact he might turn that form around means it's not pointless?




I don't want to get caught out by forcing Gordon to have one if he just doesn't, but no risk here for me on this specific 'orse.
 
Kevloaf said:
Has to be odds on you just get your money back, but he's not exactly a complete rag in the G1 field on Wednesday, so if he won that... no way he's still 25/1 and if he doesn't win, he goes for the handicap we all feel he's going for anyway...
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100% Kev. Its a long shot, thinking outside the box but all roads point elsewhere!

Has got me thinking who else could be Gordys runner here.
 
Kevloaf said:
Well he has him covered as of now, the whole thing revolves around the G1 on Wednesday.

If that race wasn't happened, Wide Receiver would be a pointless bet...... the fact he might turn that form around means it's not pointless?




I don't want to get caught out by forcing Gordon to have one if he just doesn't, but no risk here for me on this specific 'orse.
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I do appreciate he'd have to win the race to be considered going for it, so on that basis it's relatively 'risk free' but surely this could happen in any given race where festival fancies face off against one another. You could argue that if any of that line up beats Bob Olinger they'll likely head towards the top of the Ballymore market, so could we back them all NRNB? As anything other and I'd imagine they'd be heading down different routes anyway, so money back.

Ashdale Bob 14/1 NRNB
Blue Lord 16/1 NRNB
Crosshill 25/1 NRNB
Wide Receiver 25/1 NRNB

And the others are not priced up NRNB currently.

It may actually be a smart play. It's been one of them seasons where anything could quite possibly happen still, I guess.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I do appreciate he'd have to win the race to be considered going for it, so on that basis it's relatively 'risk free' but surely this could happen in any given race where festival fancies face off against one another. You could argue that if any of that line up beats Bob Olinger they'll likely head towards the top of the Ballymore market, so could we back them all NRNB? As anything other and I'd imagine they'd be heading down different routes anyway, so money back.

Ashdale Bob 14/1 NRNB
Blue Lord 16/1 NRNB
Crosshill 25/1 NRNB
Wide Receiver 25/1 NRNB

And the others are not priced up NRNB currently.

It may actually be a smart play. It's been one of them seasons where anything could quite possibly happen still, I guess.
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The angle with Wide Receiver is that he has another much more obvious race...

Blue Lord could lose and still run, so could Ashdale Bob. They can be considered of course as you say, but not as clear cut as riskier.

Crosshill is a similar one as I've said on my diary, but again, not certain he wouldn't run.



I just think of all of them, Wide Receiver could absolute collapse in price.... for no risk. The others have some amount of risk. Gordon won't run Wide Receiver as an 'also-ran'....
 
Kevloaf said:
The angle with Wide Receiver is that he has another much more obvious race...

Blue Lord could lose and still run, so could Ashdale Bob. They can be considered of course as you say, but not as clear cut as riskier.

Crosshill is a similar one as I've said on my diary, but again, not certain he wouldn't run.



I just think of all of them, Wide Receiver could absolute collapse in price.... for no risk. The others have some amount of risk. Gordon won't run Wide Receiver as an 'also-ran'....
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I like Crosshill, so I may do as you suggested on your diary and get a win today/Ballymore price on Wednesday :encouragement:
 
Kevloaf said:
I just think of all of them, Wide Receiver could absolute collapse in price.... for no risk. The others have some amount of risk. Gordon won't run Wide Receiver as an 'also-ran'....
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I would think that Gordon uses these mid-season Grade 1’s to see if the horses are up to it, or go handicapping as an alternative.

it’s a “free hit” for him regarding ratings if Wide Receiver is beaten and drops into a handicap.

Also a key point is that the O’Leary’s have always said they want Graded race winners and not handicappers, so Gordon has to try them at Graded level to keep the owner sweet, and then go handicapping if the horses aren’t up to winning a Grade 1 at this point.

So this weeks race will be decision time for them on Wide Receiver’s performance.

Anything like a win, or a close up 2nd or 3rd would probably mean that the owners would expect him to stay in Graded races in the short-term at least.
Gordon may also want that too, if he doesn’t have a shorter-priced Ballymore alternative.

Wednesdays race is going to be a crossroads for all these horses and their future paths.
 
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What chance is there of Ballyadam lining up here? I always thought he would get stepped up in trip earlier on and the beating from appreciate it should he go the supreme and you’d think Ballyadam is beaten going there.. or is he just beaten further if stepping up
 
DeeBee said:
What chance is there of Ballyadam lining up here? I always thought he would get stepped up in trip earlier on and the beating from appreciate it should he go the supreme and you’d think Ballyadam is beaten going there.. or is he just beaten further if stepping up
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I think it's certainly plausible. I mentioned this earlier in a reply to Kev.

He's not short of speed, but he now has a fair way to go to beat Appreciate It in the Supreme, so could completely understand if we see him up in trip next time out.
 
DeeBee said:
What chance is there of Ballyadam lining up here? I always thought he would get stepped up in trip earlier on and the beating from appreciate it should he go the supreme and you’d think Ballyadam is beaten going there.. or is he just beaten further if stepping up
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Certainly feasible... the 12s NRNB doesn't really appeal....

Risky taking 25s with cashout I suppose as he's so high profile so cashout might get removed?


Tough one... he's still a Grade 1 winner, in a year where the novice hurdle division doesn't look particularly deep
 
DeeBee said:
What chance is there of Ballyadam lining up here? I always thought he would get stepped up in trip earlier on and the beating from appreciate it should he go the supreme and you’d think Ballyadam is beaten going there.. or is he just beaten further if stepping up
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He didnt run his race at Christmas

Id be thinking he will run again over 2 miles before the festival and if he dissapoints again likely won't even run at the festival
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
He didnt run his race at Christmas

Id be thinking he will run again over 2 miles before the festival and if he dissapoints again likely won't even run at the festival
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Unpopular opinion: I’d fancy BA to reverse the form with AI over 2miles :biggrin-new:
 
Kevloaf said:
:cheerful:

Go on..... talk us through it..... :bull_head:
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Okay Sir/God/GOAT/Skipper.... (I’m not sure what to call you nowadays Kev with the new title)

I’ll start by saying that the run over Christmas WASN’T the real BA and I’m putting a total line through it for the obvious reasons of the yard spreading Covid through their horses :biggrin-new:

Anyway, BA possesses a lot of speed. The Royal Bond wasn’t suited to BA’s strengths, ideally he would want a strong gallop for him to go up through the gears off the pace instead of making his own running & then just darting to the line.

The only way I see AI winning a Supreme is bombing out from the front trying to outstay everything - he doesn’t have the gears that BA does so won’t beat him in a sprint. But that’ll just set it up for BA - sort of like prime Altior stalking him and then just breezing past him.

I would consider BA to be like Ferny Hollow in the fact that both are just pure speed demons.

AI should go for the Ballymore - he’ll get out paced in a Supreme. They talk about this horse being a staying chaser for Christ’s sake!!

the talk from the Gordy yard about this horse has been massive for quite a while - and not even just their yard either. Outsiders hold him in high regard too. They’ve also talked about keeping him hurdling - they clearly think he’s got loads of gears!

the only concern I would say on BA is his jumping. IF they can put that right he’s winning the supreme, if not then he’s at least in the top 3.

Look, people aren’t going to agree with me and I’m happy to take any slander anyone wants to throw - I’m also aware this should probably be in the Supreme thread :smiley_simmons:
 
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Topofthegame2021 said:
Okay Sir/God/GOAT/Skipper.... (I’m not sure what to call you nowadays Kev with the new title)

I’ll start by saying that the run over Christmas WASN’T the real BA and I’m putting a total line through it for the obvious reasons of the yard spreading Covid through their horses :biggrin-new:

Anyway, BA possesses a lot of speed. The Royal Bond wasn’t suited to BA’s strengths, ideally he would want a strong gallop for him to go up through the gears off the pace instead of making his own running & then just darting to the line.

The only way I see AI winning a Supreme is bombing out from the front trying to outstay everything - he doesn’t have the gears that BA does so won’t beat him in a sprint. But that’ll just set it up for BA - sort of like prime Altior stalking him and then just breezing past him.

I would consider BA to be like Ferny Hollow in the fact that both are just pure speed demons.

AI should go for the Ballymore - he’ll get out paced in a Supreme. They talk about this horse being a staying chaser for Christ’s sake!!

the talk from the Gordy yard about this horse has been massive for quite a while - and not even just their yard either. Outsiders hold him in high regard too. They’ve also talked about keeping him hurdling - they clearly think he’s got loads of gears!

the only concern I would say on BA is his jumping. IF they can put that right he’s winning the supreme, if not then he’s at least in the top 3.

Look, people aren’t going to agree with me and I’m happy to take any slander anyone wants to throw - I’m also aware this should probably be in the Supreme thread :smiley_simmons:
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It's a guess that it wasn't his true running though (although a reasonably educated guess) - It's still a guess, as there is no real form-line to make the case.

Your opinion on Appreciate It having no speed is hard to back up, based on the way he sped away from a decent field last time, and what he did to a decent bumper field last season in Dublin and Cheltenham.

The only chance any horse has of beating Appreciate It is him not being on form, jumping errors, or overdoing the pace like he did in the Bumper last season.
Then a horse that has the ability to go with him, may have a chance. And Ballyadam could be that horse.

Personally doubt it though.
If they meet in Dublin, we may see a clearer picture.
 
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