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2021 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

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Cashew King said:
If you listen to this weeks “Road to Cheltenham” when they discuss the novice divisions (towards the end of the show) Ruby isn’t overly complimentary to Gaillard du Mesnil - says the last race fell apart a bit & was well beaten by Holymacapony first time so not sure how consistent he is & would want to see him run well again - but he’s another quite complimentary to Blue Lord. Best listen & make your own minds up, but that was my interpretation. That’s not to say I am rushing to back Blue Lord but more I’m not sure Galliard du Mesnil is Willie’s number 1 chance.
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Ruby wasn't overly complimentary about Chacun either. He talks shit sometimes............all the time.
 
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Lobos said:
Ruby wasn't overly complimentary about Chacun either. He talks shit sometimes............all the time.
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I would back the ones he is not so keen on, he seems to play them down
 
Yeah Rubys word isn't something to rely on one bit, i remember last year at one of the preview nights the week before Cheltenham he really played down Min and Monkfish in particular and look how that turned out.
 
I must admit I try to ignore what Ruby says as much as possible. With him it's more about reading between the lines or taking note of what he doesn't say.
 
I think Ruby is a great analyst of a race but wouldn't go near his tips.
 
darlojim said:
Yeah Rubys word isn't something to rely on one bit, i remember last year at one of the preview nights the week before Cheltenham he really played down Min and Monkfish in particular and look how that turned out.
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Yep in recent times the monkfish vibes from last year he gave annoyed me. So def take pinch of salt!
 
Bear Ghylls just won that handicap really, really easily. Still unbeaten and the jockey confirmed on RTV the Ballymore is the plan/target. He acknowledged he needs to brush up his jumping, but does jump well at home just not on the track.

I've decided as WH are still 33/1 that's worth chancing in a race where there are plenty shorter in the betting that may not run (although obviously it's not a formed market).
 
Kevloaf said:
Bear Ghylls just won that handicap really, really easily. Still unbeaten and the jockey confirmed on RTV the Ballymore is the plan/target. He acknowledged he needs to brush up his jumping, but does jump well at home just not on the track.

I've decided as WH are still 33/1 that's worth chancing in a race where there are plenty shorter in the betting that may not run (although obviously it's not a formed market).
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33-1 not a great price for that horses chances IMO.
 
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Kevloaf said:
Bear Ghylls just won that handicap really, really easily. Still unbeaten and the jockey confirmed on RTV the Ballymore is the plan/target. He acknowledged he needs to brush up his jumping, but does jump well at home just not on the track.

I've decided as WH are still 33/1 that's worth chancing in a race where there are plenty shorter in the betting that may not run (although obviously it's not a formed market).
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....25-1 now and as low as 12-1 with PP. Hill went 40-1 a/r in their ‘win today’ offer this morning.
 
Garrison Savannah said:
PP only that low because of NRNB though
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It's still them saying they feel he's a 12/1 shot for that race - which looks very, very stingy!

You'd expect 20/1+ on the day given connections surely!
 
Kevloaf said:
It's still them saying they feel he's a 12/1 shot for that race - which looks very, very stingy!

You'd expect 20/1+ on the day given connections surely!
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If he doesn't run again, against better horses before then.
He'd have to be the rag. Or close to it.
Exchange prices would be big.
 
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Quevega said:
33-1 not a great price for that horses chances IMO.
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Agreed nice engine but so novicey at his hurdles and yet to face anything, shame Farrellys didn’t run today I’d fancy him to give him a race,huge step up needed.
 
BG will probably be 135 rating after that.

It’s currently way short of anything likely to figure in a Festival Grade 1.

If he had pretensions to running over 2M I would have thought he would have had a Betfair Hurdle entry given his low mark.
so the comment about mid-trips seems to ally with not having a Betfair Hurdle entry.
 
Quevega said:
If he doesn't run again, against better horses before then.
He'd have to be the rag. Or close to it.
Exchange prices would be big.
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They might be.

I can't find definite runners though...and whilst he's far off some of the winning marks, just a quick look through at horses rated OR 140 or below over the last few years....


Bright Forecast 139 - 3rd
Burbank and Scarpeta both 134 - 4th
Bello Conto and Vigil 139 - 4th and 6th
Welsh Shadow 134 - 5th
Snow Falcon 131 - 5th
Ballyalton 140 - 2nd
Close House 118 - 4th
So Young 140 - 3rd



So, whilst he might get a rating near 135 .... I think he's worth more than that, can definitely believe he's 140+ - and therefore, not wild to back him in what I don't think will be a race littered with 150+ animals.....

I like him. He's unbeaten still, improving still and if he manages to not jump like a donkey he's a lively place contender.
 
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Kevloaf said:
They might be.

I can't find definite runners though...and whilst he's far off some of the winning marks, just a quick look through at horses rated OR 140 or below over the last few years....


Bright Forecast 139 - 3rd
Burbank and Scarpeta both 134 - 4th
Bello Conto and Vigil 139 - 4th and 6th
Welsh Shadow 134 - 5th
Snow Falcon 131 - 5th
Ballyalton 140 - 2nd
Close House 118 - 4th
So Young 140 - 3rd



So, whilst he might get a rating near 135 .... I think he's worth more than that, can definitely believe he's 140+ - and therefore, not wild to back him in what I don't think will be a race littered with 150+ animals.....

I like him. He's unbeaten still, improving still and if he manages to not jump like a donkey he's a lively place contender.
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It was a quiet day today. He's got a runner's chance.


Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?
 
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Kevloaf said:
It's still them saying they feel he's a 12/1 shot for that race - which looks very, very stingy!
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Maybe it is maybe it isn’t. He’s 6th fav with PP he’s 6th fav with 365. I’m not sure it’s stingy individually but it probably is collectively. One of the benefits of a big firm going NRNB early I think - they can afford to be stingy. Punters wanting NRNB have little or no alternative, therefore no reason for PP to be overly generous - they’re going to get your money in their bank anyway.
 
Quevega said:
It was a quiet day today. He's got a runner's chance.


Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?
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Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?
Yes I can obviously see him placing... the market has a UK horse that's won the Challow heading the market, and Gordon has nothing and Willie's two both have question marks. Not a deep race at all at the moment. If I had to pick one horse, it obviously wouldn't be him...

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?
No not each way- PP going 12/1 NRNB is enough of a guide of what his price may be.

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?
No - I've already got 36/1 about a 25/1 at best shot... if I do that every time I make a bet I'll be pleased



So aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh :glee:


I hope he wins the Ballymore and KB returns to smite you Quevega :highly_amused:
 
Last edited:
I'll answer the same questions.

I think he can place and the price is fair enough. I backed him early at 40's though so I may be biased. His jumping can be sketchy so I wouldn't back him in the Supreme, he still needs to sharpen up, but plenty of dodgy jumpers have run well in the Ballymore, and some have won.

I think his price on the day will be in the 10/1-16/1 range. That's if he doesn't run again.

I have no regrets about 40/1 and I'd have been tempted to add him at 25/1 if I hadn't.
 
Kevloaf said:
Hand on heart, do you see this horse placing ?
Yes I can obviously see him placing... the market has a UK horse that's won the Challow heading the market, and Gordon has nothing and Willie's two both have question marks. Not a deep race at all at the moment. If I had to pick one horse, it obviously wouldn't be him...

Do you see the horse being available at 25-1+ come the day ?
No not each way- PP going 12/1 NRNB is enough of a guide of what his price may be.

Do you have just a touch of Bet Regret ?
No - I've already got 36/1 about a 25/1 at best shot... if I do that every time I make a bet I'll be pleased



So aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh :glee:
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1, Yep- it's all about opinion and I respect you obviously can see him placing, as you've bet him.

2. PP are mugging people off.
Think you know that.

3. We'll probably forget this minor discussion come the day, as I doubt very much this horse will be on my mind, but if we do remember it will be interesting to see his price on the day. WE won't remember though.
 
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