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2021 Arkle Novices Chase

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Hardy Eustace said:
CG should get a lovely toe into the race behind Allmankind. I expect him to be in the 3.

At the prices I am definitely against Allmankind, how many front running arkle winners do you see? For me, Cheltenham isn't much of a front runners course and their stiff fences may catch him out, one or two of Warwick's did (though I admit he did ping a couple too).

Could see Franco De port picking up the pieces so Shishkin, Franco and CG would be my 1-2-3 probably in that order.

How do you see it?
Click to expand...

Front runners did ok last year
in this and the champion
 
Hardy Eustace said:
CG should get a lovely toe into the race behind Allmankind. I expect him to be in the 3.

At the prices I am definitely against Allmankind, how many front running arkle winners do you see? For me, Cheltenham isn't much of a front runners course and their stiff fences may catch him out, one or two of Warwick's did (though I admit he did ping a couple too).

Could see Franco De port picking up the pieces so Shishkin, Franco and CG would be my 1-2-3 probably in that order.

How do you see it?
Click to expand...

If I ignored Shishkin, and Allmankind was fav.... I'm pretty sure I'd fancy / chance the Irish to beat him as e/w bets (Franco De Port and Captain Guinness)

So I suppose I end up with the same 3 as you.

1. Shishkin
2. Franco De Port
3. Captain Guinness


Allmankind not that far behind though - I'm not against him strongly. I've backed the other two in the "without" market though so I'm probably not looking at with fresh eyes yet. I'll do that at the 48 hour stage though (or try to)
 
If Allmankind id foot perfect and gets into a nice rythym, he could go very well.
He probably won't though.
 
Anyone on anything e/w antepost can be a lot happier now
 
Question...eldorado is confirmed for this.

But can he switch to thr grand annual at the last minute. Or.is that it.now.
 
punterorplonker said:
Question...eldorado is confirmed for this.

But can he switch to thr grand annual at the last minute. Or.is that it.now.
Click to expand...

Once you declare at 48 hour stage you are not allowed, as I understand it, to declare for any other race so when the 48 hour decs come tomorrow for the G Annual he can’t be declared...
 
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Kevloaf said:
I think I like Captain Guinness in the without at 12/1 NRNB as an each way bet.

In the same market

Energumene is 4/6
Allmankind is 3/1


Then again, keeps hitting the deck!
Click to expand...

Given the field is now 6, with an absolute no hoper.... it's essentially jumping round a field over 13 fences ahead of Eldorado Allen to collect.....

Kevloaf said:
Franco De Port ...... at 9/1..... NRNB, without Shishkin......

"I think he’s likely to go for the Arkle. The Cheltenham version of the Arkle is about a furlong-and-a-half shorter than the Irish version, but the race at Cheltenham will probably be run at a very fast pace and while Leopardstown is a huge test, the race at Cheltenham might just suit him. With him there, we’d have one on the front end in Energumene and one held up in him and if they overdid it on the front end, he might be able to pick up the pieces like he did at Christmas."



To me, that sounds very, very much, like this horse will be ridden to place.... he's a general 16/1 show (although WH standout 22/1) ....

On balance, I think that's a fair enough each way bet..... not particularly lucrative, as chances of him winning aren't high and you'd sitll expect Energumene to finish ahead of him I suppose?

Allmankind? Captain Guinness? Blackbow??!

Are there any other runners likely runners?




I have alreayd backed this at 9/1, but it's still the same price now, and Gordon has said Felix Desjy gets a County entry.... I can't see the dangers?



Essentially, he's 4th fav, and going for the race, we know how he'll be ridden and he needs top 4 for a small profit in all liklihood?

Upside is the pace could collapse and him cause a bit of a shock....

Downside, he falls :pirate:



Thoughts?
Click to expand...


and coupled with this one, I quite fancy my chances of a return from both :frog:

Will be incredibly disappointed if Franco De Port can't finish ahead of Eldorado Allen and Numitor :livid:
 
Timeform 1-2-3
  1. Shishkin (IRE) ★★★★★
  2. Allmankind ★★★★
  3. Captain Guinness (IRE) ★★★
Timeform View


The absence of Energumene robs us of what could have been the race of the meeting and it now looks a relatively straightforward task for the hugely exciting SHISKIN, who can provide Nicky Henderson with a seventh win in this contest. The front-running Allmankind has taken really well to fences and he can hold on for second from Captain Guinness.
 
At least he can't hamper of fall in front of something. I hate seeing no-hopers in the bid Grade 1's.
 
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Final thoughts:
Odds on favs have a good record in this race and it's hard to knock Shishkin's record. His jumping looks really good and he was brave to win last year's Supreme having got in a bit of trouble in a much larger field through an early mistake. Nico had to move him quickly from the inside to the outside to get a clear run. He was lucky to avoid the domino effect of Asterion Forlonge jumping right 3 out and 2 out.
Now to my uneducated eye Captain Guinness who was ahead and just inside Shishkin was going just as well 2 out when brought down. In his most recent race against Energumene he was moved up to challenge at the 2nd last and fell. The jockey seemed to think she could challenge and I think Energumene is a really good young chaser from whom hopefully there is much more to come. I think CG is better value than the rather flaky but talented Allmankind

Selection: Shishkin
Value: Captain Guinness
 
Not sure why but slightly underwhelmed. Probably because we lost the big clash. Dispatched them with ease with a great jump 3 and 2 out.
 
He's incredible. I needed 5 lengths rolling onto EA, and he laughed at them all. Bookies shitting themselves now
 
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