• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2021 Arkle Novices Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
Olliemagern said:
God I hope it doesn’t run the same way as that. A Harry Skelton all the way winner and the odds on jolly looking beat after 2 fences and trailing in well beaten
Click to expand...

Has to be up there as one of the most anti-climate races
Felt proper deflated after Altior and Chacun were pulled, was even more so when Defi lost

Please please... lets hope we get them all there
 
Shishkin backable at 4/6 on the exchange. Great value. I'd have it as a 4/9 shot and that's without the bookies margin.
Surely goes off shorter.
 
Moby123 said:
Shishkin backable at 4/6 on the exchange. Great value. I'd have it as a 4/9 shot and that's without the bookies margin.
Surely goes off shorter.
Click to expand...

Not for me

We still have 3-4 days to get through. You're not getting NRNB with this method
I think he will go off shorted on the day, but I think there's a possibility of him touching evens on the exchanges if he fiddles over one or two, and the front steam on

If someone gave me a 100 quid, I think I'd rather back him in-play at Evens or slightly bigger, and take 4/6 today. If its matched then nice one, if he loses, doesn't matter either way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: germanshepherd
See your angle and have thought the same about backing in running too.
Just think it will go off much shorter. The play then could be to lay back a chunk before the tapes go off and reinvest in running.
 
Paddy power just paid out my energumene "to win at the DRF and the arkle" bet as a single win, for anybody who done the same bet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf
Douvan and Altior both went off at 1/4

Wouldn’t shock me to see Shishkin get down to those sort of prices
 
  • Like
Reactions: ToniC
Did the same last year with my CPS one
 
Have just added Sky Pirate EW for this at 55/1 with boost on Betfair. Noticed that he's jocked up and there's a contraction in his price ion the exchange. 5/1 for the place feels like a reasonable poke now and of course NRNB if he does go GA.
 
Evesham Road said:
Have just added Sky Pirate EW for this at 55/1 with boost on Betfair. Noticed that he's jocked up and there's a contraction in his price ion the exchange. 5/1 for the place feels like a reasonable poke now and of course NRNB if he does go GA.
Click to expand...

Yeah, obviously looks incredibly held by Allmankind but the track could suit more and might be a 6 runner affair.
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah, obviously looks incredibly held by Allmankind but the track could suit more and might be a 6 runner affair.
Click to expand...

I like the Sky Pirate Cheltenham angle, and the likelihood he gets cover for longer with better horses for further.
And also PP still 50-1 and Skybet have gone 12-1 and only 2 places. which is bizarre in it's stinginess.
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
Quevega said:
I like the Sky Pirate Cheltenham angle, and the likelihood he gets cover for longer with better horses for further.
And also PP still 50-1 and Skybet have gone 12-1 and only 2 places. which is bizarre in it's stinginess.
Click to expand...

Yeah I've just gone back to re-back (had 0.75 pts e/w at 50/1) and just had 1 pt e/w at 55/1 with one of their boosts.

Will wait to see if entered and might lay a bit off but will see what the race looks like Monday.



I agree the horses ahead / better opposition will help him show up better.
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah I've just gone back to re-back (had 0.75 pts e/w at 50/1) and just had 1 pt e/w at 55/1 with one of their boosts.

Will wait to see if entered and might lay a bit off but will see what the race looks like Monday.



I agree the horses ahead / better opposition will help him show up better.
Click to expand...

He was able to cruise in behind Ibleo at Cheltenham, who's rated 156 now.
Looks like he needs cover for as long as possible.
Shishkin might have flown and strung them out, but if it's more tactical for longer then he could place.
Nico should really put the race to bed at the top of the hill to be fair and if he sits for longer then he'll probably still win but not as handsomely.
 
Quevega said:
He was able to cruise in behind Ibleo at Cheltenham, who's rated 156 now.
Looks like he needs cover for as long as possible.
Shishkin might have flown and strung them out, but if it's more tactical for longer then he could place.
Nico should really put the race to bed at the top of the hill to be fair and if he sits for longer then he'll probably still win but not as handsomely.
Click to expand...

Then again, in a small field.... he didn't keep up with Allmankind last time who was going a good pace and in reality, isn't it now just going to be the same horse they're all following? I suppose Captain Guinness as well, but he's hardly Mr Reliable in the jumping dept.

Race could get blown apart with mistakes from the ones making the running.

No holes in Shishkin if it falls apart, should be fastest anyway
 
With Energumene not in this race now. It leaves Skelton with all the cards, unless Nico goes on early.
If I was on Allmankind I'd be expecting them to let me lead for at least the first 7 or 8 fences, and in that case I'd save myself as much as I could get away with, and try and stack them up.

The rest of the likely runners are set to be held up.
Although Willie may send Blackbow up near the front this time if he runs.
I'm assuming the nutcase Felix don't run.
 
Kevloaf said:
Then again, in a small field.... he didn't keep up with Allmankind last time who was going a good pace and in reality, isn't it now just going to be the same horse they're all following? I suppose Captain Guinness as well, but he's hardly Mr Reliable in the jumping dept.

Race could get blown apart with mistakes from the ones making the running.

No holes in Shishkin if it falls apart, should be fastest anyway
Click to expand...

I think it's the racing on his own for too long that may affect him.
With the other better horses able to travel might mean even though he can't keep up with the front runner, he may be able to ride his race for a place.

I do think though, that on balance I'd be very surprised if the field is not strung out like the washing, as they say.
 
Front Runner
Allmankind - no reason to change approach


In the van
Blackbow (if he runs, they've said will change tactics?) Possible front runner?
Captain Guinness - was happy enough behind Energumene, similar tactic behind Allmankind?

Held up
Franco De Port - ridden to pick up pieces
Numitor - no idea if running but not good enough to be anywhere but nearly last.

So .....
Shishkin?
Sky Pirate?


Assuming.....
Eldorado Allen? - Grand Annual
Embittered? - Grand Annual
Felix Desjy - They've tried all sorts, probably just get in the way - would be a front runner?
 
Kevloaf said:
Front Runner
Allmankind - no reason to change approach


In the van
Blackbow (if he runs, they've said will change tactics?) Possible front runner?
Captain Guinness - was happy enough behind Energumene, similar tactic behind Allmankind?

Held up
Franco De Port - ridden to pick up pieces
Numitor - no idea if running but not good enough to be anywhere but nearly last.

So .....
Shishkin?
Sky Pirate?


Assuming.....
Eldorado Allen? - Grand Annual
Embittered? - Grand Annual
Felix Desjy - They've tried all sorts, probably just get in the way - would be a front runner?
Click to expand...

I thought we already knew that Felix won't be travelling over so he will be way off the pace. :beaten:
 
TE=Nortons who;n299034]

I thought we already knew that Felix won't be travelling over so he will be way off the pace. :beaten:[/QUOTE]


That was before Energumene news. Perhaps they'll change their mind now ??
 
Kevloaf said:
Front Runner
Allmankind - no reason to change approach


In the van
Blackbow (if he runs, they've said will change tactics?) Possible front runner?
Captain Guinness - was happy enough behind Energumene, similar tactic behind Allmankind?

Held up
Franco De Port - ridden to pick up pieces
Numitor - no idea if running but not good enough to be anywhere but nearly last.

So .....
Shishkin?
Sky Pirate?


Assuming.....
Eldorado Allen? - Grand Annual
Embittered? - Grand Annual
Felix Desjy - They've tried all sorts, probably just get in the way - would be a front runner?
Click to expand...

CG should get a lovely toe into the race behind Allmankind. I expect him to be in the 3.

At the prices I am definitely against Allmankind, how many front running arkle winners do you see? For me, Cheltenham isn't much of a front runners course and their stiff fences may catch him out, one or two of Warwick's did (though I admit he did ping a couple too).

Could see Franco De port picking up the pieces so Shishkin, Franco and CG would be my 1-2-3 probably in that order.

How do you see it?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom