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2017 Festival Winners

Now on to Thursday from 2017...

JLT Novices Chase
Yorkhill - 12/1 Champion Hurdle, 8/1 Ryanair, 8/1 Gold Cup
Top Notch - 16/1 for Ryanair
Disko - 20/1 for Ryanair, 33/1 for Gold Cup

Pertemps
Presenting Percy - 33/1 for RSA, 33/1 for 4-Miler, 33/1 for Stayers
Barney Dwan
Jury Duty
The Tourard Man

Ryanair Chase
Un De Sceaux @ 13/2 for Ryanair
Sub Lieutenant @ 20/1 for Ryanair
Aso

Stayers Hurdle
Nichols Canyon @ 7/1
Lil Rockerfeller @ 20/1
Unowhatimeanharry @ 8/1

The Plate
Road To Respect @ 25/1 for Gold Cup
Baron Alco
Bouvreuil
Thomas Crapper

Mares Novice Hurdle
Let's Dance - 11/1 for Mares Hurdle
Barra
Dusky Legend

Kim Muir
Domesday Book
Pendra
Premier Bond
Potters Legend


Not sure on target for many, but the standout "value" seems to be:

Un De Sceaux @ 13/2 to repeat the Ryanair victory

Lil Rockerfeller @ 20/1 - beat UNWIMH and not far behind NC, but nearly 3 times the odds and room for improvement

Let's Dance @ 11/1 - looked better at the intermediate trip than over 2m, but still won Mares Novice comfortably. (And Archie made a positive comment - which is always a good pointer :))
 
Istabraq said:
I'm sure somewhere in the past Giggs said their aim was to have a runner in every festival race (except bumper)...
Click to expand...

Haven't ever seen/heard that... but I can certainly believe it.

IF I had to choose another race, it certainly wouldn't be the CH though... stayerrrr
 
Friday Winners/Placed Horses from 2017

Triumph
Defi Du Seuil - 8/1 for Champion Hurdle
Mega Fortune - RIP
Bapaume -

County Hurdle
Arctic Fire - 33/1 for Champion Hurdle
L'ami Serge - 20/1 for Stayers Hurdle
Ozzie The Oscar
Air Horse One
Winter Escape
Ivanovich Gorbatov

Albert Bartlett
Penhill - 14/1 for Stayers
Monalee - 16/1 for RSA and 20/1 for 4-miler
Wholestone - 20/1 Stayers, 25/1 RSA, 33/1 4-Miler

Gold Cup
Sizing John - 6/1 for Gold Cup
Minella Rocco - 25/1 for Gold Cup
Native River - 12/1 for Gold Cup

Foxhunter
Pacha Du Polder - 12/1 for Foxhunter
Wonderful Charm - 8/1 for Foxhunter
Barel Of Laughs

Martin Pipe
Champagne Classic
Verni
Runfordave
Coo Star Sivola

Grand Annual
Rock The World
Gardefort
Theinval
Dandridge

There is less from this bunch that stands out for me, but:

Arctic Fire @ 33/1 for Champion Hurdle. IF Faugheen doesn't make it, he has a 2nd in a Champ Hurdle to his name and won the County off of top weight with NO prep run. I'm not saying that he'll win BUT - great value.

Monalee - my only worry here would be which race (10/1 with WH Any Race if you wanted to take the worry out)

Does anyone have any knowledge/thoughts about some of the Handicap Horses??
 
Another strand of looking at last season's winners is to consider the date when they started their Cheltenham campaign. Probably only worth considering the novice and open championship races as the rest wouldn't generally have had a campaign geared towards Cheltenham and what we have is:
Novice Hurdles
Labaik 13 October
Willioughby Court 3 November
Defi Du Seuil 15 October
Penhill 4 May

Novice Chases
Altior 21 November
Might Bite 6 November
Yorkhill 17 December

Hurdle Championships
Buveur D'Air 17 December
Nichols Canyon 20 November

Chase Championships
Special Tiara 13 November
Un De Sceaux 3 December
Sizing John 27 December

Bumper
Fayonagh (had a run on 6 May but effectively) 12 November

Clearly, apart from the novice hurdlers, the general rule (as you'd expect) was that they wouldn't be out until November at the earliest. Looking at the novice hurdlers, you have:
Labaik who is a thorough rogue and should have been banned after his third misdemeanour. The second in the race, Melon, had his first run on 29 January.
Penhill who was bought as a dual purpose horse and had a campaign pattern of 2 races then an approx 2 month break all through the season.
Willoughby Court who had a text-book campaign.
Defi Du Seuil who is apparently the only one to start early but with Cheltenham still in mind.

Food for thought for those who are on horses who have already started their season.
 
Very interesting indeed Archie!

2 runs already for death duty
Samcro out in the same race labaik was ...

DDS had a really aggressive campaign, I wonder if Gumball will be the same?
 
Nice one for doing that Leman.

I like Arctic Fire at a price, but only if Faugheen doesn't make it.

I may be on my own here, but Un De Sceaux doesn't currently appeal to me at that price, the Ryanair last year was incredibly weak IMO, you only have to look at the form of the horses after the race that finished behind him, they've all struggled massively, in most cases they've been readily hammered by other horses. Obviously I fully expect the market to fall to pieces, so many horses currently in the betting won't make the race, but I think by what has been said so far one of either Douvan or Min will turn up in this race, Yorkhill is no certainty to miss this race either though being with WPM it is highly unlikely he will have 3 of his big horses running in one race, but 2 is certainly a possibility. Fox Norton has been touted as heading for the Champion Chase yet remains strong in the betting for this, suggesting a re-route could well happen. I don't think Road To Respect will go for the Gold Cup and he too looks a strong contender for this. Top Notch runs in this if the words of Nicky Henderson are to be believed (from his stable tour on ATR), again, no push over, and the extra furlong will help from his Novice run at the festival this year. There are many others in behind who could cause Un De Sceaux a head ache as well that 13/2 or even worse 4/1, is not a price I currently view as value.

If Fox Norton and no RR runner turn up, then 13/2 will obviously look very big indeed!
 
Just looking at the novice chase championships, where you'd expect a properly planned campaign, the last 6 winners started on the following dates:
Arkle
Altior 21/11
Douvan 22/11
UDS 27/11
Western Warhorse 17/11 (hurdle, first chase 26/12)
Simonsig 21/12
Sprinter Sacre 9/12

JLT (Golden Miller)
Yorkhill 17/12
Black Hercules 14/12
Vautour 23/11
Taquin Du Seuil 29/10
Benefficient 22/9
Sir Des Champs 3/12

RSA
Might Bite 6/11
Blaklion 10/10
Don Poli 22/11
O'Faolain's Boy 21/12
Lord Windermere 11/11
Bobs Worth 25/11
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Nice one for doing that Leman.

I like Arctic Fire at a price, but only if Faugheen doesn't make it.

I may be on my own here, but Un De Sceaux doesn't currently appeal to me at that price, the Ryanair last year was incredibly weak IMO, you only have to look at the form of the horses after the race that finished behind him, they've all struggled massively, in most cases they've been readily hammered by other horses. Obviously I fully expect the market to fall to pieces, so many horses currently in the betting won't make the race, but I think by what has been said so far one of either Douvan or Min will turn up in this race, Yorkhill is no certainty to miss this race either though being with WPM it is highly unlikely he will have 3 of his big horses running in one race, but 2 is certainly a possibility. Fox Norton has been touted as heading for the Champion Chase yet remains strong in the betting for this, suggesting a re-route could well happen. I don't think Road To Respect will go for the Gold Cup and he too looks a strong contender for this. Top Notch runs in this if the words of Nicky Henderson are to be believed (from his stable tour on ATR), again, no push over, and the extra furlong will help from his Novice run at the festival this year. There are many others in behind who could cause Un De Sceaux a head ache as well that 13/2 or even worse 4/1, is not a price I currently view as value.

If Fox Norton and no RR runner turn up, then 13/2 will obviously look very big indeed!
Click to expand...

Completely agree COD :encouragement:

Taking perceived value at this stage of the season always requires guesswork and some ifs, buts and maybes..

If we assume that all the intended runners make it to Cheltenham fighting fit (which we know won't be the case unfortunately), then I would rather have the majority of my AP money on horses where I have (or think I have with a degree of certainty) the right race. At least then, if they turn up at the festival, I get a run for my money.

I've taken some 33's on Arctic Fire, not because I hope that Faugheen doesn't make it, but because he hasn't been seen for 2 years and AF represents much better value. (221 at Cheltenham)
If he has a decent prep and lines up in the CH field, he will have a solid EW chance in what doesn't look the strongest of fields - even this far out.

UDS will be aimed at the Ryanair (yes we know Mullins Bingo has some odd results) - but I would rather take the 13/2 on UDS for the Ryanair than try to figure out which race certain novices will run in.
(UDS is 1121 at the track and has only been beaten by Sprinter Sacre)

Knowing my luck, UDS will end up in the Champion Chase, Yorkhill the Ryanair and Douvan in the Gold Cup with Min going for the Grand Annual after a poor/interrupted prep!!:highly_amused:
 
Leman14 said:
Wow! If Kev can resist 0.5 pts EW on any 66/1 shot.... I must be miles off!:highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Never mind a nibble and 0.5 points , I've had a Banquet on Bellshill !! , L.o.l . might be my Royal vacation of next years fez.!
 
BigChaang said:
Never mind a nibble and 0.5 points , I've had a Banquet on Bellshill !! , L.o.l . might be my Royal vacation of next years fez.!
Click to expand...

:highly_amused::encouragement: Not going to knock a 66/1.


For those that haven't, I've bumped jono's work from the 2016 festival and how the form worked out, as I feel its similar to what we're talking about here

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?6875-How-s-the-form-from-the-2016-festival

Just watched Un De Sceaux and and that was super impressive. 13/2 is a beautiful play for me!
 
55/1 for Un De Sceaux, Nichols Canyon to both go back-to-back for Willie/Ruby best price.

Can't miss each way :very_drunk:
 
Good work here guys. Following on from the 2016 winners giving form figures at the 2017 festival of:

41127113P540 = 33% Win / 50% Win/Place
(non handicaps : 41271134 = 37.5% Win / 62.5% Win/Place)

I wanted to look at the place rate from that same festival:

2016 Day One:

Supreme ( 2 miles )
Altior - 1st in the Arkle ( 2 miles )
Min - Injured (would have run in the Arkle ( 2 miles ))
Buveur D'Air - 1st in the Champion Hurdle ( 2 miles)

Arkle ( 2 miles )
Douvan - 7th in the Champion Chase ( 2 miles )
Sizing John - 1st in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )

Ultima ( 3 miles1 )
UTPT - 1st in the same race
Holywell - Retired
The Young Master - 6th in the same race
Morning Assembly - Non Runner
Kruzlinin - Non Runner

Champion Hurdle ( 2 miles)
Annie Power - Injured / Retired
MTOY's - 2nd in the same race
Nichols Canyon - 1st in the Stayers Hurdle ( 3 miles)

Mares Hurdle ( 2 miles4 )
VVM - 2nd in the same race
Rock on The Moor - 12th in the same race
Legacy Gold - Non Runner

National Hunt Chase ( 4 miles )
Minella Rocco - 2nd in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
Native River - 3rd in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
Measureofmydreams - 13th in the Ultima ( 3miles1 )
Southfield Royale - F in the Kim Muir ( 3miles1 )

Novices Handicap Chase ( 2 miles4 )
Ballyalton - Non Runner
Bouvrouil - 3rd in the Plate ( 2 miles4 )
Double Shuffle - Non Runner
Bridgets Pet - Non Runner

Out of 24 placed horses in 2016, 15 ran in the following years festival and 10 won or placed = 66.6% strikerate
1171162120230F3

------------------------------------------------

2015 Day One:
Out of 24 placed horses, only 12 ran (the top 3 in the CH were either injured or retired) and 5 won or placed = 42% strikerate
1222486001F5

Supreme ( 2 miles )
Douvan - 1st in the Arkle ( 2 miles )
Shaneshill - 2nd in the RSA ( 3 miles )
Sizing John - 2nd in the Arkle ( 2 miles )

Arkle ( 2 miles )
UDS - 2nd in the Champion Chase ( 2 miles )
Josses Hill - 8th in the Champion Chase ( 2 miles5 )

Ultima ( 3 miles1 )
The Druids Nephew - Non Runner
Grand Jesture - Non Runner
Gallant Oscar - Non Runner
Indian Castle - 6th in the Kim Muir ( 3miles1 )
Pendra - Non Runner (**Did come 2nd in the Kim Muir in 2017 though**)

Champion Hurdle ( 2 miles)
Faugheen - Injured
Arctic Fire - Injured
Hurricane Fly - Retired

Mares Hurdle ( 2 miles4 )
Glens Melody - Retired
Polly Peachum - 10th in the same race
Bitofapuzzle - 17th in the same race

National Hunt Chase ( 4 miles )
Cause of Causes - 1st in the Kim Muir ( 3miles1 )
Broadway Buffalo - Non Runner
The Job is Right - Fell in the Kim Muir ( 3miles1 )

Novices Handicap Chase ( 2 miles4 )
Irish Cavalier - 5th in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
Thomas Crapper - Non Runner
Generous Ransom - Non Runner
Horizontal Speed - Non Runner

------------------------------------------------

2014 Day One:
Out of 24 placed horses, 13 ran and 7 won or placed = 54% strikerate
1386421451F05

Supreme ( 2 miles )
Vautour - 1st in the JLT ( 2 miles4 )
Josses Hill - 3rd in the Arkle ( 2 miles )
Vaniteux - 8th in the Champion Hurdle ( 2 miles )
Sgt Reckless - 6th in the Arkle ( 2 miles )

Arkle ( 2 miles )
Western Warhorse - Non Runner
Champagne Fever - Non Runner
Trifolium - Non Runner

Ultima ( 3 miles1 )
Holywell - 4th in the Gold Cup ( 3 miles2 )
Ma Filleulle - 2nd in the Ryanair ( 2 miles5 )
The Package - 1st in the Kim Muir ( 3miles1 )

Champion Hurdle ( 2 miles)
Jezki - 4th in the same race
My Tent or Yours - Non Runner (**Did come 2nd in the same race 2016 and 2017 though**)
The New One - 5th in the same race

Mares Hurdle ( 2 miles4 )
Quevega - Retired
Glens Melody - 1st in the same race
L'Unique - Fell in the same race

National Hunt Chase ( 4 miles )
Midnight Prayer - Non Runner
Shotgun Paddy - Non Runner
Suntiep - Non Runner

Novices Handicap Chase ( 2 miles4 )
Present View - Non Runner
Attaglance - 11th in the Plate ( 2 miles5 )
Pendra - 5th in the Ultima ( 3 miles 1 )
Ahyaknowyerself - Non Runner

------------------------------------------------

In terms of strikerate, 40 runners over the 3 years have returned at the following festival and 22 have won or placed = 55%.
 
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Jono don't want to quote the whole thing and spam up the boards but this (and the thread) is some truly eye opening work
 
Brilliant.

I'd care to guess that at SP you'd be in profit (will actually check this tomorrow)

But if you took out non runners, and used this on the day, that is surely profitable.... I'll have a look tomorrow!
 
Loving that post Jono! :encouragement:

If that trend follows for the other 3 days (and there seems no logical reason why it wouldn't).. then definitely one to keen an eye on.
There will also be others (such as Arctic Fire) who had won/placed in 2015 (or earlier) and gone on to win/place in 2017..
 
Yeah, love the work put in by you guys.

Something I think I will look to follow come race day this festival.
 
Horses that won or placed from Day One Chelt 2016, at the 2017 festival, based on Jono's work above:

For a £1 win only bet, at SP on the day of the race for each of the horses that ran in the 2017 festival from Day One of 2016:

+£0.25 Altior - 1st in the Arkle ( 2 miles )
+£5.00 Buveur D'Air - 1st in the Champion Hurdle ( 2 miles)
-£1.00 Douvan - 7th in the Champion Chase ( 2 miles )
+£7.00 Sizing John - 1st in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
+£9.00 UTPT - 1st in the same race
-£1.00 The Young Master - 6th in the same race
-£1.00 MTOY's - 2nd in the same race
+£10.00 Nichols Canyon - 1st in the Stayers Hurdle ( 3 miles)
-£1.00 VVM - 2nd in the same race
-£1.00 Rock on The Moor - 12th in the same race
-£1.00 Minella Rocco - 2nd in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
-£1.00 Native River - 3rd in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
-£1.00 Measureofmydreams - 13th in the Ultima ( 3miles1 )
-£1.00 Southfield Royale - F in the Kim Muir ( 3miles1 )
-£1.00 Bouvrouil - 3rd in the Plate ( 2 miles4 )

For £1 level stakes win only, at SP +£21.25

So pretty good looking return.

To check each way as well decided if a horse was 8/1 or bigger I would look at £0.50 e/w (£1 total)

+£0.25 Altior - 1st in the Arkle ( 2 miles )
+£5.00 Buveur D'Air - 1st in the Champion Hurdle ( 2 miles)
-£1.00 Douvan - 7th in the Champion Chase ( 2 miles )
+£7.00 Sizing John - 1st in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
+£5.63 UTPT - 1st in the same race
-£1.00 The Young Master - 6th in the same race
+£1.50 MTOY's - 2nd in the same race
+£6.25 Nichols Canyon - 1st in the Stayers Hurdle ( 3 miles)
-£1.00 VVM - 2nd in the same race
-£1.00 Rock on The Moor - 12th in the same race
+£1.75 Minella Rocco - 2nd in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
-£1.00 Native River - 3rd in the Gold Cup ( 3miles2 )
-£1.00 Measureofmydreams - 13th in the Ultima ( 3miles1 )
-£1.00 Southfield Royale - F in the Kim Muir ( 3miles1 )
+£0.75 Bouvrouil - 3rd in the Plate ( 2 miles4 )

For £1 level stakes win OR 50p each way at 8/1+, at SP +£21.13

Happy to do this for the other days jono if you put the leg work in for day 2, 3, 4 :encouragement:

Too early to make any hard or fast assumptions, as we need to look at all 4 days-worth of winners/placed horses .... as WELL as historical festivals.... but an interesting start
 
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Kevloaf said:

For £1 level stakes win only, at SP +£21.25

So pretty good looking return.

Happy to do this for the other days jono if you put the leg work in for day 2, 3, 4
Click to expand...


Nice one :encouragement:

I'll get the data for days 2-4 over the next couple of days. Will also list out the horses on day one from 2015 and 2014 so you can get the SP's from that.
 
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