2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

[mayo]

Thanks MG ... iris gift is out of my immediate radar.

I am/was a big MoT fan and not one I'll dismiss either... what was the rain for the poor RSA? Was it bleeding?

Yep. He burst. Probably wrapped in cotton wool this year - one run before Gold Cup ?

 

[jono]

I was all over this horse for the RSA in March. He's a horse I like and who clearly excels at the course. I couldn't touch him antepost however with all his previous issues, plus it's been made several times he's not the easiest horse to train. I'm not sure i'd still back him on the day of the race even as I think i'd still have concerns over that length of trip, especially with hopefully the likes of Coneygree making it a strong gallop over 3m2. Despite that i would be wary of him for sure lining up. There's no doubt the trainer and owner have thought of him as a Gold Cup horse for a long time now.

Here's the last I saw on him:

He's back now and he's doing brilliant," said the trainer.

We hope to get him ready for the Betfair Chase. It could be his seasonal debut, but ideally we would like to get a prep run into him beforehand

Over the summer he has had another win op," Jonjo added.

It remains to be seen whether it will help him. We'll see what happens.

He's a Gold Cup horse if you can get him right

I'd be surprised if he was take in the 3 triple crown races but I guess they'll just take each race as it comes. I don't think Kempton would particularly suit him even if they did.

 

[Kevloaf]

Even if all of the above happens, I still can't see Djakadam winning the gold cup. He's had 2 chances, the first of which was a weak renewal in my opinion. He is just below top class to my mind and will run another solid race without winning.

I missed this! If all the above happened it would be a weak renewal and I think he has place claims either way. Also with any cut at all his chance of winning increases too... I think 16's is really good (although I am not drinknig so my judgement might be off) haha :very_drunk:

 

[Kevloaf]

So excited for Thistlecrack's debut tomorrow... the first big gun on the season!

I hope he takes to it... it is going to add such an amazing unknown to the best race of the year :triumphant:

Even if it goes wrong, I'll take the positive that I have a banker for the festival and start backing the Douvan/Thistlecrack double haha. I just can't lose... just got to work out how I am going to watch it whilst at work :sleeping:

 

[jono]

I don't think i've ever been as excited to see a horse make his chasing debut before.

For me last season had the highlight of Sprinter Sacre for sheer sentiment and arguably one of the greatest training performances by NH ever. The high of Annie Power finally getting a deserved Festival victory proving just how good she is and proving the doubters wrong. Then watching Douvan win with ease and the limitless potential he holds just to name a few.

But nothing blew me away as much as seeing Thistlecrack run, with each run getting better and better. Yes it was and is generally a weak division but stayers should not be like him!! - To cruise and travel through his races so so easily, to have that speed as a stayer and to be pulling Scudamore's arms at the finish and be hard to pull up over 3 miles is staggering.

It doesn't mean he will translate that over fences but IF he does...wow! And the fact he's always been considered a chaser (he very nearly went chasing last year) means there is hope...

It's all unknowns and today is the first stepping stone to finding out but I cannot wait to see how he gets on.

 

[Kevloaf]

Looked like he has been well schooled. In close at one and corrected himself nicely and big and bold leaps in the main... plenty in the tank.

I felt like I had 10k on that race with every jump despite having no interest directly haha

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The perfect debut. I'm disappointed I haven't got him in more bets

 

[Kevloaf]

Me too now Faugheen... I had one bet on as a single at 8's and told myself I will wait for his debut before including in multiples... time to crank it up?

This is all going to be about price and perceived value isn't it? You'll have people on the one side saying the fav for the Gold Cup shouldn't be a (now once raced) novice and the other side of the coin saying that he is unexposed in this sphere with incredible potential based on his festival win last year...

For what it is worth, I sit like this... The price is wrong and he is the most likely winner, so I will be with him!
I would LOVE Vautour to hack up in the King George, but other than that, I am fairly sure none of the others contenders will sway me to not believing the hype... (There are some races where betting isn't the be-all-and-end-all) so win-lose or draw, you shouldn't need a bet in this race to make it special! I think I said earlier about Coneygree and although I am not a fan of the horse, him being in fine form and showing his GC winning form will be amazing for the race... and so on and so forth!...

 

[Istabraq]

I haven't seen the tape yet but I've been told it was as impressive as any debutant over fences.
i was waiting to see a massive overreaction an 11/4 best but I see 5/1 is generally available which would seem a decent price now we've seen the horse jump fences in race conditions and Chepstow aren't the easiest of obstacles.
If Tizz wanted to wrap the horse in cotton wool he's have sent him to Plumpton, we know he's a proper horse and in a year where so many have question marks he remains a serious contender despite being a novice....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Almost identical position to me Kev. I'm going to get him in plenty of multiples before his next run, which is likely to be Cheltenham in November.

 

[jono]

It was obvious his price would be clipped if he won and got round safely today. It's very very rare now where a bookmaker won't clip any high profile horse if they win regardless of the opposition they faced or the silly odds on price id had gone off at. Generally there is no context taken on the race by the bookmakers, it's just a case of

win = clip a couple of points
lose = stay the same or drift the price out a couple of points

I got on him at 10/1 in July and if i'm honest now i'd have liked to have got a bit more on. But saying that I was very close to taking the 20/1 before the World Hurdle win so regret not doing that now!! Onto his current price of 5/1 - yes it's short and the wrong price but I honestly think it's an ok price (based on what i said above). Just like the 10/1 and 20/1 at some point the 5/1 will look big. I can see him going off around 5/2 at best if all goes to plan in his next couple of runs (likely the 3m novice chase at Cheltenham and the Feltham).

There's a few key 'risks' I think about when back a horse antepost this far out. Using Thistlecrack and the Gold Cup:

Intended Target : Check - Was always this or the World Hurdle. Things could change with a fall perhaps but after today I think it's full steam ahead Gold Cup

Risk of Injury : Check - Had 7 runs and 5 runs in his last 2 years and no signs he's injury prone

Stamina : Check - For the Gold Cup I always want to know they'll get the extreme trip. NO DOUBT for me

Ground : Check - Won on Good, Soft, Heavy - not a worry

Course : Check - Festival winner and 2/3 at the course

For me he ticks all those boxes and then it just comes down to whether he has the ability and talent over fences. This far out even after 1 run you have to make your own judgement to a degree but I think he'll prove it. I think this horse is still on an upwards curve and hasn't reached his peak yet.

Also there's one thing I haven't seen mentioned much or if at all - Colin Tizzard is ALL about chasers. His yard is set up for them and that's his game. Now add in the fact he has Cue Card in the yard at this very time. He is in the ideal position to see how Thistlecrack is working and performing day in day out against a true Gold Cup contender (who was bang in the mix last year before falling). He clearly must think he has a serious chaser on his hands.

Onto his race today. I have only been able to just watch it now but I was very impressed with that. Ignore the proximity of the second place horse. Scudamore never asked him to go one bit in that race. He had so much left under the tank if he wanted to power on and put lengths between them all. The key thing for me was they let his jumping win the race. If say he had jumped a bit sketchy with some iffy jumps but then used his class and engine to win the race I would have been slightly worried. I don't think you could have asked for a better debut over fences then that. Showed some great leaps and also showed his nimble-ness when needed (5th from home when he got in tight)

I'll be at the Cheltenham Open meeting and I absolutely cannot wait to see him jump fences in the flesh!!

 

[billymag]

Im going to say the opposite im afraid lads. Firstly it was an excellent debut over fences and his jumping was outstanding. But if your backing him you need to be happy your getting a value bet and I just cant see how it is. Even if he wins all his races youll get 5/2 on the day and that's knowing he is lining up, the ground, the opposition etc. If you get a good King George winner and/or Lexus winner that price is going to be bigger than 5/2 on the day. I wish those who have backed him the best of luck but I think he is an absolutely terrible price.

 

[jono]

Even if he wins all his races youll get 5/2 on the day and that's knowing he is lining up, the ground

I forgot to mention he goes on any ground! :highly_amused: (though I get a soft ground Gold Cup would heavily bring Coneygree into it more)

 

[Istabraq]

That's a view I'd usually agree with billymag, I'm always a fan of waiting for the day and taking a view with all the information to hand, but I think in this case the 5s is a fair price given the question marks over the field.
Ricci will only run one so Vautour or Djakadam, the former was considered an unlikely stayer last year and the latter has been beaten in the race twice, Coneygree needs to prove his wellbeing, Bristol de Mai possibly ? Cue Card has age to overcome, Don Cossack probably more a National horse, Valseur Lido a maybe.
If Thistlecrack gets there healthy and impressing he'd be shorter than 5/2 for me, but I take the point about so much having to fall in place over the next 5 months

 

[jono]

I know it doesn't always translate this way but everytime I see Thistlecrack I also think about the potential of Killultagh Vic. I know Thistlecrack has come on hugely since KV beat him at Punchestown and I'm not saying he would beat Thistlecrack now but I think he could be top drawer too. Showed plenty of potential last year before his injury. He is Old Vic's first grade 1 winner over hurdles so chasing is where he should shine.

Shame KV won't be out until after Christmas.

 

[Kevloaf]

Almost identical position to me Kev. I'm going to get him in plenty of multiples before his next run, which is likely to be Cheltenham in November.

Yeh I am not worried about the track. He has two Cheltenham wins already so although I appreciate it is a factor, they clip him in again after that and I am not sure I'll know any more than I do now...

 

[paz247]

Ista, you think Don Cossack won't run in GC or will run in both all being well with him?

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah interest regarding KV, probably end up in the Ryanair if he makes the festival at all this season in my opinion. Easier option and Mullins will want O'Leary's prize money

I think what you said above about "letting his jumping win the race" is spot on. He was making lengths in the air... We wouldn't learn anything if he was slow over the fence and just powered past because on all we've seen we know he'd beat them with no obstacles in the way... Will be different being able to produce those clever leaps at a quicker pace though??

Billy, I think it depends on how many points ahead you are than SP to be considered as good value? If we fast-forward and he in unbeaten again this season leading up to the GC, then I'll be thrilled with 8s as a single and 5s in multiples, because I think at double the price, I'll have landed the gamble about the various stumbling blocks along the way....obviously then he has to actually win the race

I think 5/1 now is worth the punt compared to 5/2 on the day, and I expect he'll be shorter than that on the day... he won't be any bigger or he won't be running in it?

 

[jono]

Will be different being able to produce those clever leaps at a quicker pace though??

This is the only worry I have with Thistlecracks journey throughout the season how big and competitive the fields are going to be, or in this case not going to be. His profile and popularity is so high right now that he isn't going to be treated like a normal novice, and instead like a Gold Cup contender/favourite.

Coneygree had the benefit of being quite low profile in his novice season so wouldn't have particularly have made opposing trainers race their horses elsewhere. Even though his races were still quite small fields (5, 7 and 6 runners) leading up to the Gold Cup you still had him facing a top class opponent in Saphir Du Rheu in 2 novice chases who at the time was a hugely exciting chasing prospect (though that didn't materialise!!) His third run in the Denman Chase had some seasoned class chasers who had all could at least put it up to Coneygree.

Whether Thistlecrack will scare the opposition off enough to never be truly tested at this quicker pace is a slight worry of mine. The 3m Novice Chase at the Open Meeting will likely be a 3-4 runner field with a much similar outcome to Tuesday. Hopefully the Feltham can give him a tougher test come Boxing Day

 

[Istabraq]

Ista, you think Don Cossack won't run in GC or will run in both all being well with him?

Apologies, I was referring to Don Poli when I said he's more a National horse.

Don Cossack I forgot to mention but he is obviously a runner as current champ, I don't think last years race was a strong renewal and he took advantage of that but he won well and you can only beat what's in front of you (ignore me, I think the winner tipped up at the top of the hill !), if we wind the clock forward and they all get there healthy and in top form and I had to give you my 1, 2, 3 from Conegree Thistlecrack and DC, DC would be third, of course that's only my view...