Jono - only 9 went to post in the race last year, no longer guaranteed to be the brutal rough ride it used to be
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2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup
- Thread starter mayo
- Start date
Jono - only 9 went to post in the race last year, no longer guaranteed to be the brutal rough ride it used to be
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Good point Ista, I guess it's really a case of the class of opposition then rather than the field size. If he can face a couple of good quality second season chasers who won't be afraid to put it up to him at least for stages of a race then i'll be happy
oh and funny I also agree on
I've seen quite a few saying DC would have won may recent renewals but I can't but feel like the race was a little underwhelming in the end (Cue Card tipping up, Vautour rerouting, Don Poli given a horror ride)
oh and funny I also agree on
I've seen quite a few saying DC would have won may recent renewals but I can't but feel like the race was a little underwhelming in the end (Cue Card tipping up, Vautour rerouting, Don Poli given a horror ride)
If Don Cossack does run (and is therefore sound, 100% etc) then if he is a bigger price than Thistlecrack, on good ground, I'll have a huge whack on DC.
Djakadam is a placed horse from the year before and DC beat him easier than Coneygree did. I am NOT part of the Don Cossack fan club (as my Don Poli tattoo's show
) but I can't help thinking it is harsh to say it is a weak renewal... If Vautour ran, and got out battled, or DC stayed that little bit better, it'd be really viewed as strong form, and if Cue Card had stayed up and won, it'd be a great renewal, as he beat DC? ...
Djakadam is a placed horse from the year before and DC beat him easier than Coneygree did. I am NOT part of the Don Cossack fan club (as my Don Poli tattoo's show
) but I can't help thinking it is harsh to say it is a weak renewal... If Vautour ran, and got out battled, or DC stayed that little bit better, it'd be really viewed as strong form, and if Cue Card had stayed up and won, it'd be a great renewal, as he beat DC? ...
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jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Although the distance will tell you otherwise I think Coneygree's beating of Djakadam was superior to Don Cossacks. To make all in the Gold Cup like Coneygree did was pretty astonishing, especially with the ground the way it was.
Don't get me wrong Don Cossack put the race to bed with ease and I'm not for a second saying he's a bad winner of the race - he fully deserved it but I don't think he would have been so superior in previous renewals like i've heard. The 2014 Lord Windermere year of course he would have - that was a dire year but i'd say he would have struggled against Bobs Worth (and Sir des Champs) in 2013 again on that ground making it such a test too. If they had been on ground ground maybe so...
I just think in the recent years where the ground was really testing, it wouldn't have played to his strengths so don't think he would have necessarily won. And to be fair i'm probably harsh on the horse. My memory of the Gold Cup is disappointment having been so keen on seeing Vautour in the lineup and being all over Don Poli the whole season I guess I use that (wrongly) as a stick to beat against Don Cossack. I think to make it a truly great renewal/winner you either need to do something extraordinary (like Coneygree did in making all being a novice) or have at least 2 top top class horses battle it out. The race had this in Cue Card but falling when he did it kind of meant the race never had that just as it looked like it was going to get going.
Very much want to see the champ back though. Like you said in a previous reply these races need the reigning champions coming back
Don't get me wrong Don Cossack put the race to bed with ease and I'm not for a second saying he's a bad winner of the race - he fully deserved it but I don't think he would have been so superior in previous renewals like i've heard. The 2014 Lord Windermere year of course he would have - that was a dire year but i'd say he would have struggled against Bobs Worth (and Sir des Champs) in 2013 again on that ground making it such a test too. If they had been on ground ground maybe so...
I just think in the recent years where the ground was really testing, it wouldn't have played to his strengths so don't think he would have necessarily won. And to be fair i'm probably harsh on the horse. My memory of the Gold Cup is disappointment having been so keen on seeing Vautour in the lineup and being all over Don Poli the whole season I guess I use that (wrongly) as a stick to beat against Don Cossack. I think to make it a truly great renewal/winner you either need to do something extraordinary (like Coneygree did in making all being a novice) or have at least 2 top top class horses battle it out. The race had this in Cue Card but falling when he did it kind of meant the race never had that just as it looked like it was going to get going.
Very much want to see the champ back though. Like you said in a previous reply these races need the reigning champions coming back
I am a little more reserved regarding Coneygree... I think there is a tendancy to over-praise him. The "making all" aspect, isn't extraordinary, as that is his run style. It is ordinary in that sense, impressive, but ordinary.
In fairness as well, the ground "the way it was" absolutely was in his favour. I'd also weigh in and say Djakadam was a better horse a year older too... natural improvement?
Probably won't see a great renewal(s) like we did with Kauto and Denman for another 50 years... It can only really be hindsight that confirms it too.... if Thistlecrack ends up being well beaten, he just looks like a hurdler who was flattered bu a weak division... if Vautour doesn't stay, again... hard to say this will be a classic. Same as Coneygree and Don Cossack not returning to their best.... despite the potential now, time may show that despite it being competative and incredibly interesting... it won't be great in terms of the horses being the best chasers we've seen?
You have to say that Cue Card's performance disappointed yesterday, the only chink of an excuse I can give him is that horses do take time to come to themselves as they get older and it could be there's some improvement for fitness to come, but given the form of the yard I think they would have expected more.
I'm not having Irish Cavalier as a serious Gold Cup horse and the fact an 11yo Menorah was next best tells me this this is a race to forget....
Colin Tizzard, meanwhile, insisted he was not too disheartened by the eclipse of Cue Card in his bid to win the race for the second year running.
"He just got tired, that's all," said Tizzard. "I thought he was going to win, but he tired after the second-last.
"We took him for a racecourse gallop because if we hadn't, I didn't want to wish that I had done.
"He's only been beaten two lengths, so we'll go to Haydock (Betfair Chase) and see where we are at. I'd sooner he had won, but I'm delighted with him."
I'm not having Irish Cavalier as a serious Gold Cup horse and the fact an 11yo Menorah was next best tells me this this is a race to forget....
Colin Tizzard, meanwhile, insisted he was not too disheartened by the eclipse of Cue Card in his bid to win the race for the second year running.
"He just got tired, that's all," said Tizzard. "I thought he was going to win, but he tired after the second-last.
"We took him for a racecourse gallop because if we hadn't, I didn't want to wish that I had done.
"He's only been beaten two lengths, so we'll go to Haydock (Betfair Chase) and see where we are at. I'd sooner he had won, but I'm delighted with him."
Irish Cavalier was tipped up by Pricewise for the King George I think last season and ran okay I suppose. Still only 7 and looked to be travelling as well as Cue Card was for the majority.
Rebecca Curtis' form is good at the moment so maybe this was "his day" because I don't fancy him as a GOld Cup horse either... but the official rating for Cue Card was the same as it was last season when he won it, which is interesting, and the fact might be that form should be taken on face value. Menorah as a previous winner of the race, got a good ride from Johnson and this was surely his only target pre-Christmas, so would have been running to his peak.
I'm gonna keep an open mind regarding this race, I don't want to dismiss IC .... 33s in the King George available ... finished 5th last year at 40/1 beaten by miles ... but surely has improved.... ? Not worth a bet because the form is likely to be under rated? I haven't seen any comments about targets ?
Rebecca Curtis' form is good at the moment so maybe this was "his day" because I don't fancy him as a GOld Cup horse either... but the official rating for Cue Card was the same as it was last season when he won it, which is interesting, and the fact might be that form should be taken on face value. Menorah as a previous winner of the race, got a good ride from Johnson and this was surely his only target pre-Christmas, so would have been running to his peak.
I'm gonna keep an open mind regarding this race, I don't want to dismiss IC .... 33s in the King George available ... finished 5th last year at 40/1 beaten by miles ... but surely has improved.... ? Not worth a bet because the form is likely to be under rated? I haven't seen any comments about targets ?
Faugheen_Machine
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An indifferent round of jumping by thistlecrack. Not convincing at all. A quicker pace will help him I think
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Tizzard mentioned he hasn't schooled since that Chepstow win. I know very little with what's involved in a horses training and how much schooling they'd have done inbetween races. I was shocked this was the case. I'd have imagined they'd be schooling him regularly to try and bridge the gap of his inexperience no? To mention Coneygree again - remember he had showjumper Alfie Bradstock constantly putting him through the schooling yard whilst he was off the track for well over a year. Perhaps he surprised even the trainer with his jumping at Chepstow but it's clear (obviously) more practice is needed. It just re-affirmed he is a novice and mistakes will be made.
Of his run - I was at the course and have since watched the replay several times. Cannot argue too much with that assessment and it really was a heart in mouth moment at those open ditches - the first major error would have stopped many a horses and for a second I thought TS was pulling him up when he started moving the horse far out wide, as that could have led to a nasty injury. He was foot perfect at Chepstow but clearly seemed to have an issue with the non regulation fences. Apart from those he jumped superb.
I mentioned this after the Chepstow run but for me they have a VERY difficult task on there hands of how to handle the horse. They are stuck in a position where by if they stick to the novice events - he scares all before him and he'll encounter horses stones below him in tiny fields. But sticking him into open company right now is just too much of a risk. Talk of the King George taking on the best seasoned 3 milers is mad so connections have a very very tough task in finding the right races he needs for his education. To go back to the race and his mistakes, I do think he clearly had an issue at the open ditches - whether that was just a new experience for him? I've seen a few people say it was maybe the proximity of the horses around him or causing distractions but for me the worry was how he was ridden. Throughout the entire race it looked like Thistlecrack just wanted to bound on clear but TS kept dropping back hoping to get horses alongside and jumping around him as they want him to get that experience for the Gold Cup. The problem with that is taking all the momentum out of the horse. I think you'd see a much better jumping display if the horse was allowed to stride on do his own thing at a fast pace, which in the second circuit he got more of. If they do that however with the fields he is facing it ends up in a private schooling session where he has no experience of jumping under pressure around horses.
The Hennessy meeting is next up apparently. I presume that'll be the same race Native River won (2m 7 Novice Chase) which you'd imagine will again be a small low quality field. I sadly very much doubt they can find a novice race where they'll get both a fast pace and horses jumping alongside him throughout pushing him under pressure. (like Coneygree did when he was a novice) So for me his next run i'm wanting to see a dominant display where they let him really go for it from the front.
Has Saturday changed my opinion on his changes for the Gold Cup? Not particularly as long he can get tested sufficiently along the way - if he gets that he's still my most likely winner
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Bit of devils advocate here, but does the horse actually know any different?
With Coneygree, it wouldn't have made a difference who or what he ran against (if he was better than them) because he went out in front and ran his own race... That is the same that could happen with Thistlecrack... we have never seen him off the bridle, and we aren't likely to until the Gold Cup... now that could go three ways... 1. comes off the bridle and doesn't find. 2. comes off the bridle and battles on or 3. Doesn't come off the bridle.
They didn't put Coneygree in against open company until the big 1, and I don't really see why this should be different, unless you put a whole load of thought in to the run style.
Cue Card had plenty of experience and made a mistake in the Gold Cup... Kauto Star always made mistakes... they both had plenty of experience...
Is it being over-played?
With Coneygree, it wouldn't have made a difference who or what he ran against (if he was better than them) because he went out in front and ran his own race... That is the same that could happen with Thistlecrack... we have never seen him off the bridle, and we aren't likely to until the Gold Cup... now that could go three ways... 1. comes off the bridle and doesn't find. 2. comes off the bridle and battles on or 3. Doesn't come off the bridle.
They didn't put Coneygree in against open company until the big 1, and I don't really see why this should be different, unless you put a whole load of thought in to the run style.
Cue Card had plenty of experience and made a mistake in the Gold Cup... Kauto Star always made mistakes... they both had plenty of experience...
Is it being over-played?
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
In regards to being in out in front. I think the concern for me is that Coneygree will take up the running in the Gold Cup no question and make it a fierce gallop. Either Thistlecrack is settled behing him within other horses or he looks to go from the front and battle it out with Coneygree. Either way he will encounter established chasers jumping alongside him at a fast gallop. That's why I want him to experience it as much as he is able to.
Onto the opposition (which isn't their fault)...
Coneygree took in the Denman Chase at Newbury before the Gold Cup (which is open company). That day the field was:
Houblon Des Obeaux
Taquin Du Seuil
Unioniste
Harry Topper
Double Ross
His Novice races included the following horses:
Saphir Du Rheu
Sausalito Sunrise
Carraig Mor
For me that was a decent mix of horses. Remember at the time Saphir Du Rheu was the potential superstar. It's a much better range of horses than what Thistlecrack has taken on so far, albeit the majority of those horses mentioned appeared in races that are yet to take place in the racing calendar.
All in all I think if you had said before he jumped a fence - ok in his first 2 runs he'll make 2/3 mistakes but bar that jump round impeccably and look a natural chaser - i'd have snapper your hand off. I'd rather he's making those mistakes now for him to learn from it rather than him going into the Gold Cup not having made any kind of novicey mistake. And like you say Kev you can have years of experience and still be prone to a mistake
Onto the opposition (which isn't their fault)...
Coneygree took in the Denman Chase at Newbury before the Gold Cup (which is open company). That day the field was:
Houblon Des Obeaux
Taquin Du Seuil
Unioniste
Harry Topper
Double Ross
His Novice races included the following horses:
Saphir Du Rheu
Sausalito Sunrise
Carraig Mor
For me that was a decent mix of horses. Remember at the time Saphir Du Rheu was the potential superstar. It's a much better range of horses than what Thistlecrack has taken on so far, albeit the majority of those horses mentioned appeared in races that are yet to take place in the racing calendar.
All in all I think if you had said before he jumped a fence - ok in his first 2 runs he'll make 2/3 mistakes but bar that jump round impeccably and look a natural chaser - i'd have snapper your hand off. I'd rather he's making those mistakes now for him to learn from it rather than him going into the Gold Cup not having made any kind of novicey mistake. And like you say Kev you can have years of experience and still be prone to a mistake
billymag
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The price for Thistlecrack is far too short, if Coneygree comes out and wins the Betfair on Saturday surely he will be fav, although you have to factor into Coneygrees price the ability of the Bradstocks to use a computer and actually be capable of making the correct entry for an actual race.
Haha yep. I don't think anyone is taking the price on thistlecrack now? Certainly not vocally on this forum ... Most people are on at 10 or 8 ...
He shouldn't really have shortened after his second run ...
He shouldn't really have shortened after his second run ...
If Coneygree wins the Betfair Chase, and beats Cue Card in 2nd (so the form looks decent)... who would you make fav for the Gold Cup?
He'd have to usurp Thistlecrack at the head of the market... even as a Thistlecrack fan, and not being a Coneygree fan, I still would have HUGE respect for a previous winner if he wins the Betfair chase, first time out, against Cue Card on his 2nd run of the season...
He'd have to usurp Thistlecrack at the head of the market... even as a Thistlecrack fan, and not being a Coneygree fan, I still would have HUGE respect for a previous winner if he wins the Betfair chase, first time out, against Cue Card on his 2nd run of the season...
I wouldn't be surprised if Coneygree shortened considerably if he didn't win.
He hasn't seen a racecourse for so long that he will be rusty and probably be carrying some condition, if he jumps cleanly and gets beat half a dozen lengths I think it demonstrates his wellbeing and will be considered a good pipe owner....
He hasn't seen a racecourse for so long that he will be rusty and probably be carrying some condition, if he jumps cleanly and gets beat half a dozen lengths I think it demonstrates his wellbeing and will be considered a good pipe owner....
Yeah that is a good point. Should be fairly wound up for it, with the bonus to think about.
A real treat of a race! I am wounded and will only be watching on my phone this weekend :sorrow:
A real treat of a race! I am wounded and will only be watching on my phone this weekend :sorrow:
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
All being well I fully expect Coneygree to win at the weekend, and then follow up in the King George and ground permitting be a huge player in the Gold Cup. In terms of prices I imagine the following, currently at 10's for the Gold Cup:
- A win at the weekend shortens Coneygree to 6/1 having proved he retains the talent is all well and good. Doubts will still remain about the ground come March and how fragile the horse is. If he wins impressively or like Kev says Cue Card comes second/the form looking solid could shorten to 5's maybe.
- Thistlecrack wins at the Hennessy meeting. Stays unchanged at 7/2
- Then it comes down to Boxing Day where hopefully both will run (in different races). If they both win, for me i'd then expect around 7/2 - 4/1 Coneygree and 3/1 Thistlecrack. I think if Thistlecrack keeps winning he'll still be the favourite in almost all books. I don't agree with it but bookies tend to always air on the side of caution when it comes to potential
- A win at the weekend shortens Coneygree to 6/1 having proved he retains the talent is all well and good. Doubts will still remain about the ground come March and how fragile the horse is. If he wins impressively or like Kev says Cue Card comes second/the form looking solid could shorten to 5's maybe.
- Thistlecrack wins at the Hennessy meeting. Stays unchanged at 7/2
- Then it comes down to Boxing Day where hopefully both will run (in different races). If they both win, for me i'd then expect around 7/2 - 4/1 Coneygree and 3/1 Thistlecrack. I think if Thistlecrack keeps winning he'll still be the favourite in almost all books. I don't agree with it but bookies tend to always air on the side of caution when it comes to potential
I assume you're already invested ante post in the race?
I can't imagine Thistlecrack getting any bigger and winning the race... he could get bigger odds if things had gone wrong on the way, but if that happened, I don't think he'd win.
I'll be interested to see if this race starts appealing closer to the festival as a betting prospect - don't see it personally now, already on at bigger prices and will be plenty-exciting enough if everything turned up...
I can't imagine Thistlecrack getting any bigger and winning the race... he could get bigger odds if things had gone wrong on the way, but if that happened, I don't think he'd win.
I'll be interested to see if this race starts appealing closer to the festival as a betting prospect - don't see it personally now, already on at bigger prices and will be plenty-exciting enough if everything turned up...
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Yeah I agree, if Thistlecrack gets bigger (bar half a point by a bookie in a promotion) then it's only because he's disappointed and if that's the case he won't be going here.
So far I have the following for the race:
Thistlecrack @ 10/1
Douvan King George & Gold Cup double @ 33/1 (did have another 2 bets inc Douvan in this but they linked in with Vautour)
I'm very keen to get Coneygree onside at 10's but prefer to wait until this weekend to see his wellbeing, that and the ground is enough of a concern right now though if he looks to still retain his ability i'm happy to risk the ground going against him come March. The downside to that is his appealing price of 10/1 may get short enough after this weekend (I am on Coneygree for the Betfair and King George double though) and I may not bother.
If I do though I'd then be pretty happy with Thistlecrack and Coneygree in the race for now. Douvan probably won't go but I was sure to get a decent price on him just incase he does. If I do back Coneygree this would be the first year actually that i'd cover a horse who has already contested the Gold Cup. I pretty much always strike a line through any horse that have run in the race and look for a second season chaser coming into the race fresh.
Happy to make an exception with Coneygree if the price is right though. Already mentioned how highly i rated his win in 2015. In his one run at the start of last year at Sandown I think he looked even better and with only 5 chase runs I think if the injury hasn't affected him he'll be coming to his peak this year. I know he'll be 10 come March but we're talking about a horse who at 9 years old has only had a combined 9 runs over hurdles and fences.
So far I have the following for the race:
Thistlecrack @ 10/1
Douvan King George & Gold Cup double @ 33/1 (did have another 2 bets inc Douvan in this but they linked in with Vautour)
I'm very keen to get Coneygree onside at 10's but prefer to wait until this weekend to see his wellbeing, that and the ground is enough of a concern right now though if he looks to still retain his ability i'm happy to risk the ground going against him come March. The downside to that is his appealing price of 10/1 may get short enough after this weekend (I am on Coneygree for the Betfair and King George double though) and I may not bother.
If I do though I'd then be pretty happy with Thistlecrack and Coneygree in the race for now. Douvan probably won't go but I was sure to get a decent price on him just incase he does. If I do back Coneygree this would be the first year actually that i'd cover a horse who has already contested the Gold Cup. I pretty much always strike a line through any horse that have run in the race and look for a second season chaser coming into the race fresh.
Happy to make an exception with Coneygree if the price is right though. Already mentioned how highly i rated his win in 2015. In his one run at the start of last year at Sandown I think he looked even better and with only 5 chase runs I think if the injury hasn't affected him he'll be coming to his peak this year. I know he'll be 10 come March but we're talking about a horse who at 9 years old has only had a combined 9 runs over hurdles and fences.