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2015 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Its one of those races where you stuggle to pick 10 anti-post runners guaranteed to run.
 
loveracing said:
Well pointed out Mayo! Can WM actually do it 2 years in a row let alone 2 favs? Must have been decent odds for back to back favs.

I am happy that Douvan is so short. Makes plenty of value in the others and you will get the same payout if not more for a place than 7/4. Punters have more chance to win this way.
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Would be 3 now for Willie ....the world has changed :)

his second string won't be 40/1 again anytime soon.
 
One runner that I have had an each way bet on in this race at 50/1 is Vago Collonges. To factors that will be in his favour for Cheltenham are the stronger gallop and better ground. Runs over 2m at Kempton next Saturday.
 
Mytentoryours said:
One runner that I have had an each way bet on in this race at 50/1 is Vago Collonges. To factors that will be in his favour for Cheltenham are the stronger gallop and better ground. Runs over 2m at Kempton next Saturday.
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I think VC will be running further at the festival.:(
 
Old Vic said:
Seedling tipped by Matt Tombs too along with Shay Barry's horse.


There are two I like at big prices though. Seedling (33/1) is a 2nd season novice on a sharp upward curve. He’s won all 3 runs this season and the form has worked out really well. In his last victory at Cheltenham over 2m1f, he beat Some Plan, (who received 4lb,) 1½l. Some Plan bolted up in a good novice at Musselburgh next time. The 3rd, Padge, was beaten 25l and won next time. Warren Greatrex yard has been a bit out of sorts recently, but Seedling is apparently on course for the race and he looks too big a price, especially NRNB.

I knew it would take a huge price to tempt me into some each-way value against the Mullins battalions – and at 50/1 Bentelimar has done just that. He’s been really progressive since being switched from Philip Fenton to Shay Barry, winning a novice handicap at Leopardstown at Christmas off 126, and he was then impressive when winning a listed 2m novice at Punchestown last time.

He gave All Hell Let Loose 3lb there and beat him 3½l with the useful Mr Diablo and two of Willie Mullins entries for the Festival Grade 1 novice hurdles, Avant Tout and Aminabad, behind. I wouldn’t want to take such a line of form too literally, but in the Grade 1 Royal Bond, All Hell Let Loose was 5l 2nd to Nichols Canyon on 6lb worse terms than he met Bentelimar here.

Bentelimar didn’t jump that well at Punchestown, but he’d jumped better the time before at Leopardstown – and might prefer going left-handed. He showed a real turn of foot between the last two hurdles at Punchestown, which suggested he’ll be able to hold his position in the Supreme. If he puts in a clear round, he could easily be in the mix.
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I just had a little ap bet on Seedling incase Padge wins tomorrow.
 
loveracing said:
Wow, thanks for that Tenty.

Good ground will defo suit, will keep an eye on this one.
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Things might have moved on ...Nicholls was quoted in press earlier this week saying he might not have any runners in the novice hurdles
 
The Nicholls quote in RP on Suoreme was that " I think VC will end up at Aintree where a flat track will suit him after a run in the Dovecote and I don't think I will have a runner in the race "
 
Old Vic said:
The Nicholls quote in RP on Suoreme was that " I think VC will end up at Aintree where a flat track will suit him after a run in the Dovecote and I don't think I will have a runner in the race "
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Cheers OV. A bit of a shame that but obviously Wylie has a live candidate in each novice hurdle anyway.
 
In timeform preview

Vago Collonges is another that would be dropping in trip having raced exclusively at around two and a half miles over hurdles. However, he travels powerfully through his races and looks well worth a go at two miles based on how he shaped at Cheltenham last time. Paul Nicholls seemingly agrees as the Dovecote at Kempton has been nominated as the next target, though there’s obviously a chance he might bypass the Festival and wait for Aintree, where his strong-travelling style will be seen to good effect.

The Supreme is a difficult race to weigh up at this point. Both Douvan and L’ami Serge possess lofty Timeform ratings and have already shown a level of form in excess of what it takes to win an average renewal of the Supreme. Douvan is arguably the better long-term prospect of the pair, but he’s been priced accordingly and is difficult to back at 2/1 ante-post when you consider the aggressive trading policies employed by bookmakers at the Cheltenham Festival. He is likely to be a bigger price on the morning of the race. Shaneshill makes some appeal, as does the same owner’s Vago Collonges at a massive price, but they can’t be backed ante-post with running plans unclear, so a small bet on the standard-setting L’ami Serge is probably the best play.

Recommendation:

0.5pt L'ami Serge in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
 
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Old Vic said:
In RP Said Qewy will go to Supreme and would be his best chance along with parlour games if he was to join him. Said Neptune most likely race for Parlour games but is flexible regarding distance.

Probably hoping PG can be a Champion Hurdle contender next year.
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Donn adds Qewy too


Qewy

Qewy put up a really impressive performance to win the two-mile hurdle that opened proceedings at Newbury on Saturday.

Settled nicely in mid-division through the early stages of the race, he travelled well through the middle section of the race, he jumped well and he travelled well into the home straight. He had to be shaken up among horses in order to hold his position at the third last flight, but he was quickly back on the bridle. He joined the leaders at the second last, then picked up impressively to come away from the highly-regarded Cardinal Walter on the run to the last, and he cleared right away on the run-in to post a seriously impressive performance visually.

This looked like a hot race beforehand, and the right horses chased the winner home, with Cardinal Walter, Royal Vacation and Bouvreuil filling the next three places, with fifth place filled by Cloonacool, who had beaten Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle winner Violet Dancer on his previous run. Also, this is a race that has been won in the past by useful horses like Montbazon and Chatterbox, and last year by Calipto, and it was won in 2011 by Al Ferof. Qewy won a listed race over a mile on the flat for John Oxx and achieved a peak rating of 107, so he is a classy recruit to hurdles. He shaped nicely on his debut over hurdles as well in finishing third behind the progressive Aso on soft ground at Haydock in January.

He showed the benefit of that experience here, he obviously improved for it, and he is an exciting novice now. He was a soft ground horse on the flat, and he probably wouldn’t want it too fast over hurdles either, but the ground was not too soft at Newbury on Saturday, and it may not be that much faster at some of the spring festivals. It looks like two miles is his trip over hurdles for now, and he is of interest now for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

7th February 2015
 
I like Jollyallan but think Lami serge and Douvan dserve to be a head of him in betting. Jollyallan might improve more for better ground than the other two. Nicols Canyon also interests me wherever he goes but will wait for NRNB.

Lads is time running out for Shaneshill ?
 
Old Vic said:
I like Jollyallan but think Lami serge and Douvan dserve to be a head of him in betting. Jollyallan might improve more for better ground than the other two. Nicols Canyon also interests me wherever he goes but will wait for NRNB.

Lads is time running out for Shaneshill ?
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I'd be very interested in Nichols Canyon for this race but Douvan probably means he will be in the Neptune.

Yes I think time is running out for Shaneshill. Captain Cee Bee won this off a long lay off but match practice rather than freshness seems to be the angle in the novice races.
 
I wonder if Tell Us More will be going for this race. What price will he be if he does?
 
loveracing said:
I wonder if Tell Us More will be going for this race. What price will he be if he does?
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I've backed him heavily for Neptune but also at 20-1 to win any race! don't think there are any clues as to where he will go, if he goes to the festival at all.
 
Old Vic said:
Seedling tipped by Matt Tombs too along with Shay Barry's horse.


There are two I like at big prices though. Seedling (33/1) is a 2nd season novice on a sharp upward curve. He’s won all 3 runs this season and the form has worked out really well. In his last victory at Cheltenham over 2m1f, he beat Some Plan, (who received 4lb,) 1½l. Some Plan bolted up in a good novice at Musselburgh next time. The 3rd, Padge, was beaten 25l and won next time. Warren Greatrex yard has been a bit out of sorts recently, but Seedling is apparently on course for the race and he looks too big a price, especially NRNB.

I knew it would take a huge price to tempt me into some each-way value against the Mullins battalions – and at 50/1 Bentelimar has done just that. He’s been really progressive since being switched from Philip Fenton to Shay Barry, winning a novice handicap at Leopardstown at Christmas off 126, and he was then impressive when winning a listed 2m novice at Punchestown last time.

He gave All Hell Let Loose 3lb there and beat him 3½l with the useful Mr Diablo and two of Willie Mullins entries for the Festival Grade 1 novice hurdles, Avant Tout and Aminabad, behind. I wouldn’t want to take such a line of form too literally, but in the Grade 1 Royal Bond, All Hell Let Loose was 5l 2nd to Nichols Canyon on 6lb worse terms than he met Bentelimar here.

Bentelimar didn’t jump that well at Punchestown, but he’d jumped better the time before at Leopardstown – and might prefer going left-handed. He showed a real turn of foot between the last two hurdles at Punchestown, which suggested he’ll be able to hold his position in the Supreme. If he puts in a clear round, he could easily be in the mix.
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The Warren Greatrex Stable Tour didnt scream future Supreme winner did it ?

SEEDLING
5 b g Cockney Rebel - Unseeded
Winner of two bumpers and placed in two hurdles for Charlie Egerton last season.
"He is a horse I have taken over from Charlie Egerton and he ran some solid races last season and has won two bumpers. He is still a maiden and we will try and find a race for him over two miles in the next two weeks. He has been given a rating of 130 and should be able to win a race."
 
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