2015 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Mytentoryours]

I haven't made my mind up yet but depending on what Mullins runs in the Supreme out of Outlander/Nichols Canyon/Shaneshill will probably be carrying my money.

 

[Old Vic]

John Ferguson will win this race sometime - surprised that he said Parlour Games could still go here.

 

[Mytentoryours]

John Ferguson will win this race sometime - surprised that he said Parlour Games could still go here.

You would think he would run Qewy in this and PG in the Neptune but I had also read the same about Qewy that he hadn't made his mind up about which race.

 

[Old Vic]

You would think he would run Qewy in this and PG in the Neptune but I had also read the same about Qewy that he hadn't made his mind up about which race.

In RP Said Qewy will go to Supreme and would be his best chance along with parlour games if he was to join him. Said Neptune most likely race for Parlour games but is flexible regarding distance.

Probably hoping PG can be a Champion Hurdle contender next year.

 

[Morning Glory]

I think the Pricewise shouts are fair enough.

Tuesday's races get analysed to death though. I'm leaving the supreme Arkle and champion hurdle until day of the race markets are up.

 

[Mytentoryours]

What do people think about Douvan? His jumping looks very good and he has been impressive both starts but what has he beaten? I know Sizing John won the grade one at Christmas but that race completely fell apart. I'm nowhere near as taken as I was with Vautour last year. I'd be interested to hear your opinions.

 

[iainmcf]

What do people think about Douvan? His jumping looks very good and he has been impressive both starts but what has he beaten? I know Sizing John won the grade one at Christmas but that race completely fell apart. I'm nowhere near as taken as I was with Vautour last year. I'd be interested to hear your opinions.

I follow the Mullins yard closely and imo you have to read between the lines a lot with Mullins.The yard has so many novice hurdlers to gauge against each other and I would suggest Douvan is the best of them, and thats just listening to mullins, walsh and ricci along with what ive seen.Mullins dosent send many novices on the back of two runs to the fez, thats a tip in itself.Remember Un De Sceux hadnt beaten much over fences until its last race and now everyone concedes it may be a superstar, I think Douvan will follow suit.

 

[loveracing]

What do people think about Douvan? His jumping looks very good and he has been impressive both starts but what has he beaten? I know Sizing John won the grade one at Christmas but that race completely fell apart. I'm nowhere near as taken as I was with Vautour last year. I'd be interested to hear your opinions.

Yes, Vautour was much easier to assess judged on the beating of The Tullow Tank who beat Arctic Fire twice prior to the Fest.

It is hard to judge Douvan based on the opposition, but if the yard rate him higher than last season Vautour then I guess you have to take it seriously.

He's the only reason I haven't backed a horse for the Supreme, as yet. There shold be plenty of value on the day being such a short price favourite for the race.

 

[Old Vic]

I like Douvan but was very taken with NC on Sunday.

The Paddy Power pricing of Nicols Canyon suggests he is going to the Supreme. Going to take a chance and do a NC/ Douvan double in Supreme/Neptune.

 

[Lester]

Boyles NRNB

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[paz247]

Disappointed to hear Silver Concorde may bypass The Festival now, I have backed it Ew for the Supreme, I don't think its two runs have been that disappointing to be fair but I suppose that's the name of the game in Ante-post betting

 

[mayo]

Disappointed to hear Silver Concorde may bypass The Festival now, I have backed it Ew for the Supreme, I don't think its two runs have been that disappointing to be fair but I suppose that's the name of the game in Ante-post betting

Which way do you see the Wylie horses going Paz ?

Been wondering whether Shaneshill might be low enough for the Martin Pipe?

 

[paz247]

Which way do you see the Wylie horses going Paz ?

Been wondering whether Shaneshill might be low enough for the Martin Pipe?

I think Nichols Canyon will be the Neptune Horse which will push Black Hercules into the Albertt Bartlett, Shaneshill will prob take his chance in the Supreme and the fact PPower have him at 12's seems to point this is where he will line up barring injuries to any off the others

 

[loveracing]

I think Nichols Canyon will be the Neptune Horse which will push Black Hercules into the Albertt Bartlett, Shaneshill will prob take his chance in the Supreme and the fact PPower have him at 12's seems to point this is where he will line up barring injuries to any off the others

Can't help but to agree.

 

[Old Vic]

Jollyallan and Qewy the Pricewise picks.

Seedling gets a couple of positive mentions in the quotes.

Seedling tipped by Matt Tombs too along with Shay Barry's horse.


There are two I like at big prices though. Seedling (33/1) is a 2nd season novice on a sharp upward curve. He’s won all 3 runs this season and the form has worked out really well. In his last victory at Cheltenham over 2m1f, he beat Some Plan, (who received 4lb,) 1½l. Some Plan bolted up in a good novice at Musselburgh next time. The 3rd, Padge, was beaten 25l and won next time. Warren Greatrex yard has been a bit out of sorts recently, but Seedling is apparently on course for the race and he looks too big a price, especially NRNB.

I knew it would take a huge price to tempt me into some each-way value against the Mullins battalions – and at 50/1 Bentelimar has done just that. He’s been really progressive since being switched from Philip Fenton to Shay Barry, winning a novice handicap at Leopardstown at Christmas off 126, and he was then impressive when winning a listed 2m novice at Punchestown last time.

He gave All Hell Let Loose 3lb there and beat him 3½l with the useful Mr Diablo and two of Willie Mullins entries for the Festival Grade 1 novice hurdles, Avant Tout and Aminabad, behind. I wouldn’t want to take such a line of form too literally, but in the Grade 1 Royal Bond, All Hell Let Loose was 5l 2nd to Nichols Canyon on 6lb worse terms than he met Bentelimar here.

Bentelimar didn’t jump that well at Punchestown, but he’d jumped better the time before at Leopardstown – and might prefer going left-handed. He showed a real turn of foot between the last two hurdles at Punchestown, which suggested he’ll be able to hold his position in the Supreme. If he puts in a clear round, he could easily be in the mix.

 

[iainmcf]

I dont see how some of these pro punters think.Is it just a case of of picking a couple of outsiders and hoping for the best.If either of these two make the frame in the Supreme I'm giving it all up

 

[loveracing]

I dont see how some of these pro punters think.Is it just a case of of picking a couple of outsiders and hoping for the best.If either of these two make the frame in the Supreme I'm giving it all up

Seedling seems to be an improving versatile horse. Though hard to judge on the opposition he's beat.

 

[mayo]

I dont see how some of these pro punters think.Is it just a case of of picking a couple of outsiders and hoping for the best.If either of these two make the frame in the Supreme I'm giving it all up

I punt mainly like that myself

Vautour was the first favourite to win Supreme for a stretch.

 

[loveracing]

Vautour was the first favourite to win Supreme for a stretch.

Well pointed out Mayo! Can WM actually do it 2 years in a row let alone 2 favs? Must have been decent odds for back to back favs.

I am happy that Douvan is so short. Makes plenty of value in the others and you will get the same payout if not more for a place than 7/4. Punters have more chance to win this way.

 

[iainmcf]

Makes good sense to look against the short price fav if you can find a viable long priced alternative, I just dont see it re seedling and bentelimar but each to their own.