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Weekend Racing Thread

mayo

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A few new bods around here lately so maybe we might try and get a Saturday racing thread going.

Might not be the best time to start with the forecast though :confused:.

Can hardly be arsed looking at cards at Sandown or Ffos Las because suspect they will be washed out.

Any picks for Musselburgh or Punchestown Sunday ?
 
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Ffos Las on :) Wetherby on :)

whisper And saphir for forecast in welsh champion hurdle.
 
Benvilo 7/2 or Oscar 4/7 ? Sounds like kings only getting a mark.
 
Soll added at sandown.
 
Barry G on Oscar away from Cheltenham 111111F111


24/11/2012 1/4 11-8 165 Asco 19f Hvy 1 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 8/13 8/15
14/4/2012 1/5 11-7 167 Aint 20f Gd 1 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 11/4 9/4
10/2/2012 1/7 11-0 Kemp 16f std/Slow 6 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 1/14
19/11/2011 F 11-8 165 Asco 19f Gd 1 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Overturn (IRE) evs 5/6 video
9/4/2011 1/8 11-7 165 Aint 20f Gd 1 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 6/1 6/1
5/2/2011 1/5 11-7 165 Ffos 16f Gd/Sft 2 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 1/4 2/7
19/2/2010 1/11 11-8 Sand 16f Hvy 3 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 4/11 4/11 video
16/12/2009 1/14 11-0 Newb 16f Sft 4 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 3/10
26/11/2009 1/11 11-7 Newb 16f Sft 5 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 8/11
21/3/2009 1/16 10-12 Newb 12f Gd 5 B J Geraghty N J Henderson Oscar Whisky (IRE) 11/8
 
Nice stat mayo. Short enough today though.

Saphir De Rheu & Smoking Aces at Ffos Las
 
Betfair Hurdle entries


1 165-10 Rolling Star49 5 11-12 Nicky Henderson61 Barry Geraghty 150 128 155
2 112-24 Far West77 5 11-8 Paul Nicholls38 Harry Derham5 146 148 155
3 13-F01 Irish Saint21 5xt 5 11-7 Paul Nicholls38 Noel Fehily 145 137 159
4 6-3211 Smashing44 5 11-5 W P Mullins48 143 116 157
5 63011U Act Of Kalanisi21 tb 8 11-5 Dr Richard Newland33 Christopher Ward5 143 134 152
6 67-234 Chris Pea Green49 5 11-4 Gary Moore29 Joshua Moore3 142 136 152
7 231/59 Gibb River70 8 11-4 Nicky Henderson61 A P McCoy 142 130 151
8 212212 Deep Trouble28 h 7 11-2 Ben Case50 Daryl Jacob 140 127 153
9 32114/ Montbazon697 7 11-2 Alan King38 Robert Thornton 140 — —
10 23257- Vasco Du Ronceray310 h 5 11-1 Nicky Henderson61 David Bass 139 135 153
11 63U-01 Vendor70 6 11-0 Alan King38 Jack Doyle 138 121 152
12 51P-P8 First Avenue28 9 10-13 Laura Mongan50 Paddy Bradley7 137 143 155
13 1/130- Swing Bowler333 7 10-12 David Pipe60 Conor O'Farrell 136 103 155
14 2121U Dell´ Arca49 5 10-12 David Pipe60 Tom Scudamore 136 135 150
15 06133 Jumps Road21 7 10-11 Colin Tizzard46 Brendan Powell 135 113 159
16 1/20-1 Cheltenian39 8 10-10 Philip Hobbs36 Richard Johnson 134 128 147
17 424133 Splash Of Ginge28 6 10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies33 Ryan Hatch7 134 138 153
18 115/0F Recession Proof49 8 10-10 John Quinn80 Jake Greenall3 134 66 141
19 55/802 Alaivan23 8 10-6 Jonjo O´Neill58 Maurice Linehan5 130 139 157
20 115-P2 Totalize14 h 5 10-5 Brian Ellison40 Aidan Coleman 129 137 157
21 12-323 Prompter58 7 10-3 Jonjo O´Neill58 127 134 152
22 16-86 Poet23 9 10-0 Clive Cox James Banks5 124 112 144
 
Timeform runner by runner on the Betfair hurdle

Timeform provide you with their verdict on the valuable Betfair Hurdle...

Rolling Star was disappointing at Cheltenham and Aintree after making a winning start for current yard, but back on track at Haydock on return, and easy to forgive a flop at Ascot since. Slight concern that he's best fresh.

Far West finished second in the Triumph, and filled the same spot behind Melodic Rendezvous in Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November. Reliable, and can bounce back from rare below-par effort in race won by Rolling Star at Haydock in November.

Irish Saint was smart as a juvenile and put shaky start to current campaign behind him when easily winning 19f Grade 2 handicap at Ascot last time. Suited by forcing tactics there, and well treated under a penalty.

Smashing was fairly useful in France for Mickaël Seror, but has improved since joining Willie Mullins, winning minor events at Fairyhouse and Limerick. Folly to assume he's reached his limit.

Act of Kalanisi is not a natural chaser, but has thrived back over timber this term, scoring readily in 2m handicaps at Ffos Las and Leicester. Still in front when unseating last time, but needs to raise his game again.

Chris Pea Green was a useful juvenile and has produced three solid in-frame efforts in handicaps this time round, fourth of 20 to Willow's Saviour in Ladbroke at Ascot (2m) last time. Sure to give his running again.

Gibb River shaped as if retaining plenty of ability when fifth of 12 to Pine Creek in listed handicap at Ascot in November. Faded into mid-field behind Vendor here (19f) next time, but could easily bounce back.

Deep Trouble is progressing well, for all he should have followed up Sandown win at Kempton last time. Clearly quirky, but capable of outrunning odds if getting strongly-run race which suits his hold-up style.

Montbazon was a leading novice hurdler in 2011/12 but absent since finishing fourth in Supreme Novices' nearly 2 years ago. Favourably handicapped, but not had a smooth run in training, and opposable as a result.

Vasco du Ronceray pushed Irish Saint hard in the Adonis at Kempton in February, and not disgraced when fifth in the Triumph Hurdle, but asking a lot for him to be able to take this on belated seasonal return.

Vendor's profile is rather patchy, but bounced back to form when winning big-field handicap over 19f here in November, doing well to pounce off a steady pace. Raised 8 lb for that, but may be capable of better.

First Avenue sprung a shock in the Imperial Cup last March, but temperamental sort hasn't given his running in 3 subsequent hurdles outings. Heavy ground no problem, but easy to swerve on balance.

Swing Bowler is a well-bred mare who won her first 5 starts and enhanced her reputation when third to My Tent Or Yours in this contest last year. Flopped at Cheltenham in March, and big ask to bounce back on return.

Dell' Arca has started to repay hefty price tag when taking the Greatwood at Cheltenham on his first start for David Pipe, and still going well when hampered and unseating in Ladbroke at Ascot. Remains unexposed.

Jumps Road's 3 wins over hurdles have come over 2m at Wincanton. Third in graded events at Cheltenham and Haydock on last 2 starts, but not missed by the assessor as a result, and others much more likely.

Cheltenian won the Champion Bumper in 2011 and has been very lightly raced since. Showed his old ability was intact when winning at Uttoxeter in December, and opening mark is very fair, provided he's able to back that up.

Splash of Ginge won a maiden at Aintree in December and has finished third in a pair of Grade 2s since. May do better still given lightly raced profile, but that's likely to be back in calmer waters than this.

Recession Proof won this race in 2011, and has been lightly raced since. Looked set to build on non-staying effort at Cheltenham in November when falling three out in the Ladbroke at Ascot, and no forlorn hope now.

Alaivan was a smart hurdler at his best for Edward O'Grady (third in the 2010 Triumph). Bounced back to form for current yard when second at Wincanton (2m) last time, and claims if taking another step forward now.

Totalize is a hold-up sort who disappointed in Ladbroke at Ascot, but right back to best in refitted hood at Cheltenham last time, and looks on a workable mark if getting race run to suit his running style.

Prompter was useful on the Flat, and has caught the eye when making the frame on both starts over hurdles this term. Better to come, but heavy ground is a serious concern, and looks one for another day.

Poet was smart on the Flat and made winning hurdling debut over C&D in late-2012, but hasn't progressed, and well beaten in two handicaps this term, albeit doing too much on the front end at Wincanton last time.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Irish Saint
2. Smashing
3. Totalize

Timeform View: Paul Nicholls took this with Zarkandar in 2012, and looks to have excellent claims with Irish Saint, who is well treated under a penalty for his recent Ascot romp. Smashing is completely unexposed, and is feared as a rare runner here for Willie Mullins, with Totalize appealing as the best of those at bigger odds.



If any one hasn't a betfair account you'll might help us and timeform here www.fatjockey.com/visit/betfair
 
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PaddyPowerShops ‏@PaddyPowerShops 1m

Dr PJ Moriarty Nov Chase: 6/4 Ballycasey, 7/4 Don Cossack, 9/4 Carlingford Lough

Think they have that wrong ....
 
The prospect of testing conditions is a concern for trainer Mouse Morris as the admirable First Lieutenant looks to secure a deserved return to the winner's enclosure in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on Sunday.

The Gigginstown House Stud-owned nine-year-old has been in the first three in 14 of his 17 starts over fences and has filled the runner-up spot in the last two renewals of the Lexus Chase over the Hennessy course and distance.

He found only Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Bobs Worth too strong in the most recent running of the festive showpiece, and while Morris has been pleased with his stable star since, he admits the wet weather in Dublin has tempered his enthusiasm.

"The ground is going to be heavy, but he's in good shape and we'll let him take his chance. On his Lexus run he is (the one to beat). The ground would be a concern, but I suppose it's the same for them all," said the trainer.

Gigginstown's retained jockey Bryan Cooper has opted for First Lieutenant, with Brian O'Connell aboard Last Instalment in a seven-runner field. Gigginstown is also represented by the Gordon Elliott-trained Roi Du Mee.

"First Lieutenant put in a fine run when second in the Lexus and puts in a great performance every day he runs. He takes a couple of runs to get to himself and when he comes to himself, then he shows his true colours. He's known for putting in some spectacular jumps. He's a thrill to ride, never mind watch. Hopefully he can perform well on Sunday," said Cooper.

Philip Fenton trains Last Instalment, who slammed First Lieutenant when winning the first of two Grade One novice prizes at Leopardstown a couple of seasons ago, but was soon sidelined for the best part of two years by injury.

He made a highly encouraging return in defeat when third in last month's Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles, but while Fenton is anticipating progress, he does not expect his charge to be at peak fitness this weekend.

He said: "You'd be hoping he'd improved from his first run and he will improve again for Sunday. Cheltenham is the big stage. It's his second run back, but even so he's in great shape. We are aiming that he will improve for each run and it is more important to have him peaking in March than February.

"I'm hoping that Last Instalment runs a respectable race and comes out of it in good shape and improves and is good enough to take to Cheltenham. He has a bit of history with First Lieutenant - I'm sure he's probably the fitter of the two, but even so I'd be hoping he'd put up a good show. The picture will be clearer after Sunday.
 
Balder Success at Warwick 6/4
Rolling Star (back to lay at Newbury) took the 16.5 on betfair hope to lay back at about 4.
Smad Place in RSA trial at Newbury.

thats it for now,
 
A profit anyway Mayo. Rolling Star never traded below 12. Winners was 190 IR. 43.77 BSP.
 
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Backing the favourite in Ascot Chase is the way to go :)
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Going to take on MTOY today.
 
Tried to be too clever again - should have just laid him. Presume he will go chasing now.