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2015 RSA Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter Morning Glory
  • Start date Start date
mayo said:
Maybe Don Poli can go to the 4 miler.

Very Wood Cheltenham form etc etc
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Putting the pieces together looks like Very Wood to 4 Miler , Don Poli RSA and Wounded Warrior to stay at home for Irish National.

Could have them all wrong :)

Meanwhile on another one of their charges, Wounded Warrior (a Naas Grade 2 victor), Meade commented: "He's in super form and may go for the RSA. He was worked to run here, and I've always thought he's a very good horse.

"He's a bit weaker than Very Wood, and the Irish National is in the back of my mind but it would be asking a lot to go to Cheltenham first and then go there."
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Would agree Mayo. Both have Cheltenham form but Very Wood looks like an out and out stayer whereas Don Poli was able to win the Martin Pipe last year over 2m 4f and his form this year is stronger than Very Wood over three miles. And that way Mullins will have to settle for four winner son Day 1:)
 
Bayoffreedom said:
Would agree Mayo. Both have Cheltenham form but Very Wood looks like an out and out stayer whereas Don Poli was able to win the Martin Pipe last year over 2m 4f and his form this year is stronger than Very Wood over three miles. And that way Mullins will have to settle for four winner son Day 1:)
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That option makes sense to me but thinking about what BoF has just said they could go
WW - 4 miler
VW RSA
DP JLT
and leave VL at home for the Powers Gold Cup.

They did run SirDChamps in the JLT.
 
Rhinestone Cowboy said:
That option makes sense to me but thinking about what BoF has just said they could go
WW - 4 miler
VW RSA
DP JLT
and leave VL at home for the Powers Gold Cup.

I'd be surprised if they didn't send Very Wood to the 4 miler. Have given up trying to guess what Mullins will try and do with his. I get the impression he wants to keep his big 4 novice chasers apart 2m UDS 2m 4f Vautour 3m Valseur Lido 4m Don Poli but clearly Bryan Cooper wants to ride both VL and DP so it will be interesting to see who wins that battle.
They did run SirDChamps in the JLT
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Don Poli no entries yet before festival. V unusual to go RSA without a prep in calendar year.....last 50 winners have done. His campaign reminds me of Back in focus....Valseur Lido campaign much more your run in to tilt at RSA.
 
Hi Diversdad - great first post.

I love that stat. I thik it came against a couple of Pipe hotpots in the RSA over the last few years.

We could be reading too much into Bryan Coopers appraent love for DP and as MTOY says Mullins did seem to want to keep his big4 apart.
 
Welcome Diversdad.

Grand Crus fell foul of that stat. Good spot - no harm to have someone questioning the DP love in :)

It could be a stonking race. whatever Giggy send, Coneygree, Kings Palace, and Mulhollands two.
 
Diversdad said:
Don Poli no entries yet before festival. V unusual to go RSA without a prep in calendar year.....last 50 winners have done. His campaign reminds me of Back in focus....Valseur Lido campaign much more your run in to tilt at RSA.
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Yes very good point. A much more meaningful stat the some others. Match practice obviously the key.
 
The following 28 horses have been scratched:
Balbir du mathan (fr), benevolent (ire), champagne west (ire), cogry , deputy dan (ire), generous ransom (ire), gitane du berlais (fr), grand vision (ire), irish saint (fr), jarry d'honneur (fr), mala beach (ire), ned stark (ire), noble emperor (ire), perfect gentleman (ire), ptit zig (fr), return spring (ire), royal player , rule the world , saphir du rheu (fr), sego success (ire), shanahan's turn (ire), splash of ginge, tango de juilley (fr), theatre queen (ire), tonvadosa , uncle jimmy (ire), urano (fr), val de ferbet (fr)

<p><strong>RSA Chase Entries 2015</strong></p>
<p><iframe width="660" height="880" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QawbQ5JjLB1CxG_4YWzygl1esSn-lfeZ4Cpwvz4xBrQ/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false"></iframe></p>
<p></p>
 
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Kings Palace attracted a bit of criticism after winning at Newbury last time out and drifted in the RSA market; what did you make of the run and how do you see him doing in the RSA?

He is our best chance of a winner at the Cheltenham Festival. He has been faultless in two races around Cheltenham this term and any criticism of his Newbury run are unjustified. Two runner races are always difficult for horse and jockey and he will have learned from his mistakes at the open ditches. It will take a very good horse to beat him.
 
Old Vic said:
Kings Palace attracted a bit of criticism after winning at Newbury last time out and drifted in the RSA market; what did you make of the run and how do you see him doing in the RSA?

He is our best chance of a winner at the Cheltenham Festival. He has been faultless in two races around Cheltenham this term and any criticism of his Newbury run are unjustified. Two runner races are always difficult for horse and jockey and he will have learned from his mistakes at the open ditches. It will take a very good horse to beat him.
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Might have got KP all wrong but he is one that has been really short in the antepost market that I don't really fancy to win this.
 
Mytentoryours said:
Might have got KP all wrong but he is one that has been really short in the antepost market that I don't really fancy to win this.
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I hope you're wrong tenty coz I have him in three bets;)
He's been at the head of the betting for ages now though, as you say, and the complexion of the race has certainly changed, it looks a much hotter race now, especially if Don Poli and Coneygree turn up, they both look like pretty stern opposition
 
Mytentoryours said:
Might have got KP all wrong but he is one that has been really short in the antepost market that I don't really fancy to win this.
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I also don't fancy him Tenty. Have you noticed we have never seen TS ask the horse? I think he's one of those horses that has has to front run to try expose the others. He found nothing at last years fest, but he does ping the big obstacles now.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I hope you're wrong tenty coz I have him in three bets;)
He's been at the head of the betting for ages now though, as you say, and the complexion of the race has certainly changed, it looks a much hotter race now, especially if Don Poli and Coneygree turn up, they both look like pretty stern opposition
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I've actually backed him in a multiple as well MMG. :)
 
loveracing said:
I've actually backed him in a multiple as well MMG. :)
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I thought this was going to be a race that cut up to be honest when I picked him, but in reality it looks like potentially a strong renewal now, still depending on who runs of course, not clear yet.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I thought this was going to be a race that cut up to be honest when I picked him, but in reality it looks like potentially a strong renewal now, still depending on who runs of course, not clear yet.
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Decent preview here https://www.timeform.com/racing/Art...instown_pair_can_show_the_way_through_RSA_fog

The feeling at Timeform is that there is a greater depth to the Irish novice chasers this year than the British. This is displayed quite nicely in the comparison between Coneygree and Don Poli. While Coneygree had to step out of novice company in order to achieve his big figure, Don Poli has managed smart form in just two starts over fences, a maiden at Gowran and the Topaz at Leopardstown. Both have proved strong form. He made short work of subsequent Grade 2 winner Wounded Warrior and Coral Cup fourth Smashing at Gowran, then beat Apache Stronghold, who would win the PJ Moriarty next time, convincingly over Christmas.

With form like that, why would Mullins contemplate dropping Don Poli in class? It probably has something to do with Valseur Lido, second to Apache Stronghold last time. Like Don Poli, he’s Mullins-trained and Gigginstown-owned. The friction comes from interests they don’t share: while Gigginstown would happily go the JLT route with Valseur Lido, who’s already a Grade 1 novice chase winner over two and a half miles, Mullins also has Vautour pencilled in for that race and would presumably prefer to keep two of his best novices apart.

It would be so much easier if it was simply the horses’ behaviour we had to predict. As it is, we are weighing up a clash of human wills as much as equine talent.

The question is: do we have to? Don Poli can currently be backed at 4/1, Valseur Lido at 12s. Either would represent value in a race absent of the other, as would presumably be the case. They’d be even better value should temptation get the better of Coneygree’s connections. It’s for that reason that backing both, with stakes split accordingly, becomes an appealing bet.
 
Another good one here with similar advice

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenh...there-is-a-willie,-there-is-a-way?dcmp=ortwt4

Very Wood (20/1) and Wounded Warrior (33/1) are both owned by Gigginstown. I was unpleasantly surprised when Noel Meade suggested that Albert Bartlett winner Very Wood might go for the 4 miler and the much less battle hardened Wounded Warrior might now come back in trip for the RSA. I wouldn’t fancy Wounded Warrior nearly as much in this much tougher race – he’d be much better served by the calmer waters of the 4 miler.

That all points pretty clearly to another Gigginstown horse, Valseur Lido (12/1) being the smart play here. I’d doubted his stamina before his last run, but he looked to get done for toe by Apache Stronghold in the Grade 1 Flogas over 2m5f at Leopardstown last time, just staying on in the manner of a horse that would be ideally suited by 3m.

That 2m5f is the furthest he’s run over, so you’re taking his stamina on trust and he looks to enjoy some cut in the ground. However, the Flogas has been the best trial, producing 4 of the last 6 RSA winners - Cooldine and Bostons Angel did the double and Weapon’s Amnesty and Lord Windermere won the RSA after finishing 2nd and 3rd in the Flogas. Lord Windermere hadn’t raced beyond 2m5f and Cooldine hadn’t run under rules beyond 2m6f, so unproven stamina isn’t necessarily a negative here.

Valseur Lido’s Drinmore win in November was an excellent performance and, having been off since, he might have needed the run a little last time. The vibes from Willie Mullins about the horse are really strong and if he does run, it probably knocks Don Poli into the 4 miler, which would significantly enhance his chances. With Coneygree likely to go for the Gold Cup, I can see Valseur Lido challenging Kings Palace for favouritism on the day. (In the unlikely event that Don Poli runs too, it might mean that Ruby Walsh would ride Valseur Lido, if Bryan Cooper chooses Don Poli.)

There’s plenty of water to flow under the bridge before targets are finalised for the Mullins horses, but Valseur Lido is 10/1 NRNB with Boylesports. I can’t see him being more than half that price if he lines up and I’m going to rely on his class, and trust Willie that stamina and ground concerns are unfounded.

If there is a star that’s going to run in this, that will go on to win King Georges and Gold Cups, I think its Valseur Lido. When push comes to shove Willie tends to get his own way - I think that will happen again and Valseur Lido will run in the RSA.

1pt Valseur Lido to win the RSA Chase @ 10/1 (NRNB)

Methinks I need to get my Boyles account back in action.
 
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