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2015 Arkle Trophy Chase

MrMcGoldrick said:
So UDS managed to stay on his feet and beat yet another bunch of also-rans leading to him being made joint fav for the Arkle. The Mullins yard must have aspirations of Gold cup glory for vautour to consider longer novice distances at this stage so they're obviously fairly confident he's a stayer.
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Think UDS will go Arkle and Vautour JLT, wether UDS can do the front running trick around Cheltenham we will see but will be fascinating to watch IMO
 
paz247 said:
Think UDS will go Arkle and Vautour JLT, wether UDS can do the front running trick around Cheltenham we will see but will be fascinating to watch IMO
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This one will be out for the Cheltenham Previews "Only Azertyuiop has made most of the running since Analogs Daughter won in 1980."
:)
 
I think UDS will have to be tried against decent opposition before they can even consider taking him to the festival. The race at the weekend had one horse against him rated around 120 over hurdles, probably won't achieve anything like that over fences, that's not festival form, and I can't imagine there has ever been a favourite for a race as high profile as the Arkle that still has so much to prove.
He may well appear again in a much better race and thrash good opposition and then I'll hold my hand up and say he may be all they've suggested, but if Vautour was mine he'd be in the Arkle and I wouldn't be in the least bit worried about UDS turning up.
 
I think you can say for certain that if UDS and Vautour were in different yards both would go for the Arkle.

I wonder have they ever worked together ?
 
It's strange that them being in the same yard is such a huge consideration, I heard an interview with Willie Mullins before UDS ran last week and he seemed to be of the opinion that they were giving the horse his last chance to prove he could be a chaser before a return to hurdles. It's inconceivable to me that Ricci would pull Faugheen out of the champion hurdle had UDS failed again and had his Cheltenham target switched to that race, so why the shenanigans with the Arkle. On ratings they could be 30lbs apart, or more, by the time of the festival, so why wouldn't you want the best horse in the best race, let UDS take his chance in the JLT, that's just a prep for the Ryanair and I can't see that race being on Riccis wish list.
 
With that in mind, and for the third year in a row, it’s time to wheel out this old NTF chestnut…

Do we want to be backing a first time faller/un-seater for festival success?
Yes, that one. Long term followers of NTF will be plenty familiar with this line of thinking.

If we take a look back at the chase debuts of the Arkle top 3 finishers over the past 13 seasons one thing is glaringly obvious; it is a huge advantage to stay on your feet on chasing debut if you are to have any pretensions of having a say in the finish of the premier two mile grade one novice chase.

In fact the bare figures tell you its a massive advantage to not only stay on your feet but to have actually WON on your chasing debut.

Take a look at the last 13 Arkle top 3 finishers and how they fared on their respective Chasing debuts…

2014

Western Warhorse – 1st on Chasing Debut

Champagne Fever – 1st

Trifolium – 1st

2013

Simonsig – 1st

Bailey Green – 3rd

His Excellency – 1st

2012

Sprinter Sacre – 1st

Cue Card – 1st

Menorah – UR (beaten 29 lengths in Arkle)

2011

Captain Chris – 2nd

Finians Ranbow – 1st

Realt Dubh – 1st

2010

Sizing Europe – 1st

Somersby – 1st

Osana – 1st

2009

Forpadytheplasterer – 1st

Kalahari King – 1st

Planet Of Sound – 4th

2008

Tidal Bay – 1st

Kruguyrova – 1st

Noland – 1st

2007

My Way De Solzen – 1st (PU on only chase start in France as a 4yo before moving to A King)

Fair Along – 1st

Jack The Giant – 1st

2006

Voy Por Ustedes – 1st

Monets Garden – 1st

Foreman – 2nd

2005

Contraband – 2nd

Ashley Brook – 1st

River City – 1st

2004

Well Chief – 1st

Kicking King – 5th

Le Duc – 1st

2003

Azertyuiop – 1st

Impek – 1st

Isio – 1st

2002

Moscow Flyer – FELL

Seebald – 1st

Armaturk – 1st

So from the last 39 Arkle Chase top 3 finishers…..

31 WON on their Chase debut

34 finished in the top 2 on their Chase debut

Only TWO failed to complete the course on their chase debut….and one of those was the mighty MOSCOW FLYER! (the other was the not so mighty, but still well above average, Menorah)

If we look a bit deeper and concentrate only on the Arkle winners and their form figures over fences in the season leading up to their Arkle triumph then we get the following…

Western Warhorse – 1

Simonsig – 11

Sprinter Sacre – 111

Captain Chris – 2221

Sizing Europe – 1111

Forpadydeplasterer – 1222

Tiday Bay – 1112

My Way De Solzen – 1211

Voy Por Ustedes – 1111

Contraband – 2213

Well Chief – 1

Azertyuiop – 111

Moscow Flyer – F111F

Only 1 of 13 failed to complete on ALL starts before their Arkle triumph (Moscow Flyer, who actually had TWO falls from his five starts!!)

11 of the 13 were yet to finish out with the top two on all chase starts before the Arkle, only Contraband stops that from being 12 from 13 as he finished…wait for it…3rd on one of his runs!

The figures really don’t look all that promising for Un De Sceaux to go on and achieve Arkle Chase success at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival in March.

Obviously racing is not always as cut and dry as this (if only!!) but failing to complete on chasing debut is far from ideal and if there is one chink in Un De Sceaux’s armour it is his exuberance, an exuberance that cost him on chase debut and may well cost him again in the future.

Is a clear round on debut a major key to Arkle success?

The figures point firmly towards YES.

Is completing on ALL chase starts in your Novice season leading up to the Arkle a key component to Festival glory?

The stats point in no uncertain terms to YES. (Unless of course your name is Moscow Flyer, then you can do what the hell you want!!!)

Jumping is,after all, the name of the game…….

That fall on chasing debut was far from the ideal start

- See more at: http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/un-de-sceaux-and-the-arkle/#sthash.pF0Ch891.dpuf
 
Good stuff Morning Glory, it's also interesting that they have taken the 2 mile option on Friday for Vautour having had entries in longer races. I certainly hope they go the Arkle route, and I would be a layer of UDS if he was their representative instead, I want to see Vautour win the novice chase this year then fly round in the Champion next season in the manner of One Man a few years ago, that was brilliant to watch.
 
Good stuff MG ..Ben Aiken does some good write ups.

Vautour did a good impression of Champagne Fever in 2013 at Leopardstown.

He might not be the second coming after all.
 
Vautour didn't look great yesterday did he? I don't know what the official going description was though but it looked very soft to me and Vautour seemed to be struggling to travel with his usual verve from the start, I don't think Townend helped with that either, he didn't seem able to get the horse to relax. Based on what we saw though I can't see them being in a rush to go for the Champion chase, nor a longer distance because he appeared very tired at the end of 2m 1f so I would think this has sealed his festival target as the Arkle. If the ground was a problem, along with the ride not looking the best, this could throw up a good opportunity to back him at a decent price, a little more schooling, better ground and Ruby Walsh giving a return to his best would still make him very hard to beat in March in my view. You never know what to expect though from the Mullins yard do you, I think his next race will be quite telling, if they go for 2 miles again that would be confirmation for me, or maybe they'll decide he wouldn't beat UDS anyway so they'll avoid that race, lots of conjecture for the time being, but, given the 7/1 available in a place, I might risk it for a small stake.
 
Bit from Willie here ...

"I'm just drawing a line under Vautour's run. He wasn't right. I didn't actually see the race yet, but from talking to all my people at home in the stable and people who watched the race, the horse wasn't right," said the Closutton handler.

"I have my own reasons. People who were watching him said to me 'he just didn't stride the way he does'. I have my own reasons for that and I think he'll get over that and hopefully I'll bring him back to the way he was. Vautour will come back to himself."
 
Thanks for that Old Vic, it kind of confirms what I thought when watching the race, he never looked to be travelling comfortably.
 
Clarcam/ Vautour Video from Christmas

 
Have updated the Josses Hill thread http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?2068-Josses-Hill-Henderson-trained-Arkle-Contender

not sure what people were expecting.

Probably ran close to a mark of 150.

Contraband won off 147, Tidal Bay 154, Forpadydeplaster 152, Sizing Europe 157, Captain Chris 153, and Western Warhouse 135 !

In a normal year 7lbs of improvement and he would be home and hosed.

Jumping not great but UDS and Vautour hardly have unblemished records either.

If Ptit Zgig showed here rather than JLT might give them all plenty to do.
 
Old Vic said:
Have updated the Josses Hill thread http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?2068-Josses-Hill-Henderson-trained-Arkle-Contender

not sure what people were expecting.

Probably ran close to a mark of 150.

Contraband won off 147, Tidal Bay 154, Forpadydeplaster 152, Sizing Europe 157, Captain Chris 153, and Western Warhouse 135 !

In a normal year 7lbs of improvement and he would be home and hosed.

Jumping not great but UDS and Vautour hardly have unblemished records either.

If Ptit Zgig showed here rather than JLT might give them all plenty to do.
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Talking through your pocket Vic

Gods own is 162 would you Back him ?
 
Hoof said:
Talking through your pocket Vic

Gods own is 162 would you Back him ?
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No.

I have backed Josses but think Clarcam most likely winner at present.
 
It might seem like something of a long shot but I've had a little each way tickle on Sergeant Reckless for the Arkle, I've also doubled him up each way with Irving in the champion hurdle, very small stakes but I think both could run much better than the current odds suggest
and the return for both to be placed pays above 25/1 to your total stake, more if you get the 50's on offer at some bookies for Irving.
 
Having a strange campaign is Sergeant Reckless but I get the logic.

court Minstrel is another at a price I might back...
 
Irish Arkle on Sunday week looking tasty. Un de sceaux Clarcam and Gilgamboa.

Bolger saying the softer the ground better Gilgamboa chance will be - that has to be a negative for the Festival ?
 
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