2027 The Prices on Offer

[Killiney]

If it's good ground, JP won't run him

Only if Jonbon is in opposition !

 

[Killiney]

I tend to rule out all 10 and above year olds from the big races, it could come back to bite me but it's my starting point.

The 10 yr old stat keeps money in your pocket in G1s at Cheltenham the Stayers being the exception !

 

[Runragged]

The age rule is an interesting one, reaching the point that you can question whether 9yos are too old now? This years winner now takes it to the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8. In that period, the favourite has failed to win 5 times, three of those were aged 9, Galopin Des Champs, Al Boum Photo & Might Bite. Obviously two were defending champions and if Gaelic was to make the race next year and to go off favourite then he would be looking to defy that stat. Kauto Star was the last winner aged 9yo that had won the race before, though Best Mate in 2004 the last to defend his title the following season as a 9yo.

Personally, too many if's and but's around Fact To File at this stage to warrant an ante post bet. Happy to take much shorter with NRMB or if his target became more certain (Unlikely if going John Durkan as usual).

 

[Lobos]

Yeah, that's the thing with F2F. With him taking the same path to the festival as this season (bar KG) and potentially going unbeaten and putting Gaelic to bed again in the process, 20/1 will be way in the distance and the will he/won't he questions will be back again. It'll be interesting if he is actually entered for the Gold Cup next season. If so, then I suspect we'll have our answer.

 

[Craigy14]

Fact To File is so lightly raced because he went straight over fences.

If he is still showing the same zest and wins at Xmas or the DRF, he has to be on the radar regardless of age imo.

But for me not an antepost bet as now as well as “which race will he go for” we have the “will the ground be good enough for JP et al to run him”.

Edit - just to add, it depends on who we think might step up from novice company. Nothing from last year stepped up for the Gold Cup this year. The ones that interest me would be Kaid D’authie, Romeo Coolio and possibly one of the front 2, but think one of those will likely be better suited to the Ryanair trip from the front.

 

[Lobos]

Not convinced by this season's Novices. Kitzbuhel did it well but can see him being more suited to a Ryanair the way he races. F2F not only went straight over fences but got into the game late as well and was a few days off 6 before making his Rules debut.

 

[Benjy23]

The old every horse is born on New Year's Day

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Wouldn't be thinking the Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown is the same Gaelic Warrior who races at Cheltenham myself, form figures of 2211 at Cheltenham, over fences that becomes 11, away from leopardstown his figures read as 131112111, compare this to Leopardstown where he is 1UR232, the sole win was in a handicap hurdle so he's never managed a chase win at Leopardstown.

I'd be very wary of thinking that beating him at Leopardstown gives you an edge over him anywhere else because for some reason, he just doesn't show his best round there.

 

[Lobos]

Absolutely Envoi. Can't deny though that F2F would be a huge danger to Gaelic wherever they race and the former doesn't have a bad record at the Festival either. Those two to me are a fair way ahead of the other staying chasers.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Absolutely Envoi. Can't deny though that F2F would be a huge danger to Gaelic wherever they race and the former doesn't have a bad record at the Festival either. Those two to me are a fair way ahead of the other staying chasers.

Agreed, the novices have to make some giant strides to challenge them, much as I like a few of those novices it'll take some big efforts to displace GW & F2F from the top spots over both trips.

Wouldn't mind seeing them face off in the Punchestown GC, might give us another piece of the puzzle towards next season.

 

[Danman]

I've gone in on Gaelic Warrior again, thought the 5/1 in the hills specials was a decent price, have also added kitzbuhel @ 20's and kaid d'authie @ 66's. Also had a little dabble on final demand @ 16's but not so sure on that one.

 

[Runragged]

Edit - just to add, it depends on who we think might step up from novice company. Nothing from last year stepped up for the Gold Cup this year. The ones that interest me would be Kaid D’authie, Romeo Coolio and possibly one of the front 2, but think one of those will likely be better suited to the Ryanair trip from the front.

Jango Baie didn't do too bad stepping up. As a 7yo who has now proven he stays then he looks a very strong candidate for next year, though we are then down the 'beaten horses in GC rarely win it later' trend...

 

[Killiney]

Jango Baie didn't do too bad stepping up. As a 7yo who has now proven he stays then he looks a very strong candidate for next year, though we are then down the 'beaten horses in GC rarely win it later' trend...

He would I think need a light season to beat that trend.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Already have Romeo Coolio covered but have no confidence I'll collect on the bet, has never won a race between March & May and the display over the Cheltenham fences wasn't exactly inspiring, maybe connections might think about 2 or at most, 3 runs before the spring festivals next season.

Can see Jango Baie going close again next season, course form of 112 over fences now, think a more agressive ride might be the ticket for him, the slight mistake at the third last lost him some momentum but he had no issues withe pace throughout, a little bit of softer ground wouldn't go amiss either.

Oscars Brother struggled with the faster going & pace they raced at in the browns, was finishing off best of all so another 2f round the new course would really suit him imo, bit of soft going and he'd be another player for McManus next season.

Main bet would be Kaid d'Authie though, looked very comfortable until coming down, wasn't even a jumping mistake just looked like he lost his backend on landing, really like him for next season.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Main bet would be Kaid d'Authie though, looked very comfortable until coming down, wasn't even a jumping mistake just looked like he lost his backend on landing, really like him for next season.

This is my take too. Still 33's, bit of a forgotten one because he came down, prior to that pissing all over Final Demand, and not far behind Kitzbuhel, but that was on his chasing debut, potentially over a trip too short.

 

[Istabraq]

Main bet would be Kaid d'Authie though, looked very comfortable until coming down, wasn't even a jumping mistake just looked like he lost his backend on landing, really like him for next season.

Is this Ryanair or Gold Cup EA ?
He's one of only two horses I've backed for 2027 so far and I'm only invested in the Gold Cup.
33/1 has to be OK for a 6yo who has improved significantly with every run, he's entered in the Fairyhouse Gold Cup but are we expecting him to head there, I'm not of the view 20f is his trip, he's hit the line well each run this season.
If he's not declared over Easter I'd assume he'll be in the Aintree MIldmay entries, either way I think the 33s (Gold Cup) is a price to be taken before his next run....

 

[Wayward Lad]

Jango Baie didn't do too bad stepping up. As a 7yo who has now proven he stays then he looks a very strong candidate for next year, though we are then down the 'beaten horses in GC rarely win it later' trend...

Maybe the trend of ‘beaten horses in the GC rarely win it later’ could have an age factor….as recent winner A Plus Tard won the GC at 8 years old after finishing second the year before.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Is this Ryanair or Gold Cup EA ?
He's one of only two horses I've backed for 2027 so far and I'm only invested in the Gold Cup.
33/1 has to be OK for a 6yo who has improved significantly with every run, he's entered in the Fairyhouse Gold Cup but are we expecting him to head there, I'm not of the view 20f is his trip, he's hit the line well each run this season.
If he's not declared over Easter I'd assume he'll be in the Aintree MIldmay entries, either way I think the 33s (Gold Cup) is a price to be taken before his next run....

He's a Gold Cup horse for me, the way he was finishing at Fairyhouse & Leopardstown he just looks like the further the better.

 

[Istabraq]

He's a Gold Cup horse for me, the way he was finishing at Fairyhouse & Leopardstown he just looks like the further the better.

I didn't need much convincing but pretty sure I'll be chipping away at the 33s over the next week...

 

[FinalFurlong91]

He's a Gold Cup horse for me, the way he was finishing at Fairyhouse & Leopardstown he just looks like the further the better.

Hes one i can see running well in grand nationals