-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019
- Thread starter Marty973
- Start date
Folski
Member
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2018
- Messages
- 735
- Reaction score
- 63
- Points
- 28
Rhinestone_Cowboy
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2017
- Messages
- 2,161
- Reaction score
- 153
- Points
- 0
PP have also trimmed Annamix in the Ballymore market to 20/1 (12/1 now in the Supreme market). It does imply Annamix is back in training.
With 365 being the only ones remaining at 20/1 and their cashout being available I'm inclined to have a bet at 20/1 now and re-assess after his debut.
I'm aware this bet is more "Fear of missing out" rather than sensible punting and the Supreme is one of the easiest traps to fall into in terms of hype horses (especially for somebody like myself who likes to create a book for certain races).... but knowing all that, I'm still having 2.5 pts win this morning
2.5 pts win Annamix Supreme 20/1
Totally get where you are coming from but I actually think backing Mullins hype horse for the Supreme is sensible betting at around 20/1. Not sure if Champagne Fever was a hype horse but Vautour (1st), Faugheen (1st), Min (2nd) and Melon (2nd) certainly were. I know there were was the odd dud like Senewalk but statistically for me it is a value bet. My issue this year is whether Annamix is actually living off last tear's hype. All we have is Ricci's comments which are something. But there hasn't been any noticeable stable support, the price cut yesterday was due to RR's comments
Folski
Member
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2018
- Messages
- 735
- Reaction score
- 63
- Points
- 28
I backed Champagne at 14/1 about a week before the festival. Told everyone I knew to back him and was told i was crazy.
Faugheen was Neptune not Supreme. Agree it's totally a value bet.
Rhinestone_Cowboy
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2017
- Messages
- 2,161
- Reaction score
- 153
- Points
- 0
You're absolutely right in theory, the issue is that sometimes it's hard to know which is THE hype horse...before I check I'd say it's not as easy as it perhaps seems in hindsight and I suppose betting style comes in to play.
I'll go through my records (any excuse :highly_amused
2013 - I backed My Tent Or Yours and Dodging Bullets - Champange Fever won which was the 'start' of the Mullins train in this race but I don't think you can claim that was a hype horse. Personally I was only backing 1 or 2 in a race at that time and had a "set" stake per race for every race at the festival. I wasn't backing ante post so don't have any idea what the long-term hype horse would have been, and to be honest there probably wasn't one as there was no reason to believe that Mullins would be dominating like he did? I was aware of the gamble that had taken place in the days leading up to the race (well done Folski). I'd like to think that if I had been punting ante post that year, I'd also have been keen on the bumper winner for Mullins/Walsh ... but who knows :highly_amused: But, back to the point - backing the MUllins "hype horse" wasn't invented by this point?
2014 - First year I had any ante post bets for Cheltenham... First Mohican (non runner) and Valsuer Lido for Mullins (10th) for the Supreme at 25/1. :very_drunk: I do distinctly remember Vautour being hyped up, but it wasn't just "which Mullins horse is the best, THAT WINS) there was a lot of buzz about Irving being top class for Paul Nicholls who'd had a good record in the race recently. I also remember that Faugheen was much more 'the talking horse' going in to Cheltenham for the Neptune (as you mentioned, he also won impressively) was the one that everyone wanted to be on. Perhaps some very shrewed people had backed Vautour on this, but it only really became a "trend" after he'd won the race I'd say.
2015 - Now many might consider this as the first real big hype job as Mullins had won two in a row and Douvan was different class in any quotes that came out of the yard. Douvan happened to be leg one of the infamous 4-timer that everyone in the world was on. Douvan was "the one" from a long way out. I don't ever remember him being a big price for the race, I know I certainly didn't back him until the day in singles at 2/1 and 6/4. I only backed the "four timer" on 3rd March and that was at 16/1.
2016 - So the 'pattern' is now established, Mullins and Ricci the first place you look... and we did, and it was Min at 50s, then 33s, then he was 12s before you knew it and people that were on we're loving life, and anyone that had been more reserved was saying things like "he's just priced up on Douvan and he certainly ain't Douvan"... and he bumped into the superstar that is Altior. Would I agree this was a good value bet, absolutely.
2017 - Even though Min didn't get the job done, hard to look anywhere but Mullins/Ricci again at this point, so the collective 'we' did. I got my info from this forum that Ricci had TRIED TO BUY Melon but the owner said no, so alarm bells were ringing that THE Mullins horse mnight not be pink. The Ricci buying Melon story was never public so [we] ended up trying to find "the one". Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early, Cilaous Emery, Invitation Only. Fulham Road, Riven Light and IMFAMOUSLY Senewalk... I had backed Melon each way... but I also backed every other one of those horses mentioned! I actually ended up backing all 14 runners so did have Labaik, but unsurprisingly was 14 pts down for the race overall with a whopping 19 pts in non runners and (also 27.5 pts NRNB!). Now it doesn't take a genius to see where I went wrong that year... not knowing which was THE horse was a killer. Hindsight says I should have stuck to my guns about Melon, but it is virtually impossible when the thing isn't running! I couldn't say that was a value bet even if I had stuck to just him could I?
2018 - Did I learn from the mistake in 2017? Kind of... but mostly no! I took the 16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB about Getabird - however, let's back up. Did we know which was THE Mullins horse last season? Absolutely not! Starting at the start it was Annamix. He got ruled out and then Ricci had a few more that got talked up. Sharjah, Epicuris, Antey and Winter Soldier. There was also Sayar and Real Steal. What happened in the race, Getabird was rubbish and Mullins was nowhere.
If I am honest, with all of that said, was Annamix a smart play at 20/1? IS that value? I would have to say it isn't based on the past 5 years. Of course I hope I am wrong, it is better to be lucky than good after all :triumphant:
Rhinestone_Cowboy
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2017
- Messages
- 2,161
- Reaction score
- 153
- Points
- 0
Cracking post that Kev and great to have that level of context. I can't help but feel that the search for the hype horse that started after Douvan somewhat distorts the perceived level of value now due to the number of false prophets. I might be a bit overly influenced by Billy Mags source last year who had previously given him only a small number of what would appear justified hype horses (Douvan, Vautour and Min I think, or 2 of the 3) and included Annamix in the same bracket. So for me that 20/1 was good value last year. As indicated above I am less convinced it is as good this year as he has to comeback from injury. Anyway I'm on and hoping we're lucky this year
Last edited:
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Yeah, really good post that Kev, informative and makes complete sense.
I was in a downbeat place when Annamix got pulled last season, so typically me, having to learn the hard way I finally succumbed to not backing the Mullins' hype as much as last year, I have him in a few multiples, but nothing from a single perspective, so it would probably be about right that I missed the boat on this one!
I will probably still not get involved in any single now I have missed the 20's tbh, would rather take shorter still once I have seen him declared. Also, judging by the exchange money, and although it's not a lot in total, you'd have to say this is the target race.
I was in a downbeat place when Annamix got pulled last season, so typically me, having to learn the hard way I finally succumbed to not backing the Mullins' hype as much as last year, I have him in a few multiples, but nothing from a single perspective, so it would probably be about right that I missed the boat on this one!
I will probably still not get involved in any single now I have missed the 20's tbh, would rather take shorter still once I have seen him declared. Also, judging by the exchange money, and although it's not a lot in total, you'd have to say this is the target race.
You're absolutely right in theory, the issue is that sometimes it's hard to know which is THE hype horse...before I check I'd say it's not as easy as it perhaps seems in hindsight and I suppose betting style comes in to play.
I'll go through my records (any excuse :highly_amused
2013 - I backed My Tent Or Yours and Dodging Bullets - Champange Fever won which was the 'start' of the Mullins train in this race but I don't think you can claim that was a hype horse. Personally I was only backing 1 or 2 in a race at that time and had a "set" stake per race for every race at the festival. I wasn't backing ante post so don't have any idea what the long-term hype horse would have been, and to be honest there probably wasn't one as there was no reason to believe that Mullins would be dominating like he did? I was aware of the gamble that had taken place in the days leading up to the race (well done Folski). I'd like to think that if I had been punting ante post that year, I'd also have been keen on the bumper winner for Mullins/Walsh ... but who knows :highly_amused: But, back to the point - backing the MUllins "hype horse" wasn't invented by this point?
2014 - First year I had any ante post bets for Cheltenham... First Mohican (non runner) and Valsuer Lido for Mullins (10th) for the Supreme at 25/1. :very_drunk: I do distinctly remember Vautour being hyped up, but it wasn't just "which Mullins horse is the best, THAT WINS) there was a lot of buzz about Irving being top class for Paul Nicholls who'd had a good record in the race recently. I also remember that Faugheen was much more 'the talking horse' going in to Cheltenham for the Neptune (as you mentioned, he also won impressively) was the one that everyone wanted to be on. Perhaps some very shrewed people had backed Vautour on this, but it only really became a "trend" after he'd won the race I'd say.
2015 - Now many might consider this as the first real big hype job as Mullins had won two in a row and Douvan was different class in any quotes that came out of the yard. Douvan happened to be leg one of the infamous 4-timer that everyone in the world was on. Douvan was "the one" from a long way out. I don't ever remember him being a big price for the race, I know I certainly didn't back him until the day in singles at 2/1 and 6/4. I only backed the "four timer" on 3rd March and that was at 16/1.
2016 - So the 'pattern' is now established, Mullins and Ricci the first place you look... and we did, and it was Min at 50s, then 33s, then he was 12s before you knew it and people that were on we're loving life, and anyone that had been more reserved was saying things like "he's just priced up on Douvan and he certainly ain't Douvan"... and he bumped into the superstar that is Altior. Would I agree this was a good value bet, absolutely.
2017 - Even though Min didn't get the job done, hard to look anywhere but Mullins/Ricci again at this point, so the collective 'we' did. I got my info from this forum that Ricci had TRIED TO BUY Melon but the owner said no, so alarm bells were ringing that THE Mullins horse mnight not be pink. The Ricci buying Melon story was never public so [we] ended up trying to find "the one". Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early, Cilaous Emery, Invitation Only. Fulham Road, Riven Light and IMFAMOUSLY Senewalk... I had backed Melon each way... but I also backed every other one of those horses mentioned! I actually ended up backing all 14 runners so did have Labaik, but unsurprisingly was 14 pts down for the race overall with a whopping 19 pts in non runners and (also 27.5 pts NRNB!). Now it doesn't take a genius to see where I went wrong that year... not knowing which was THE horse was a killer. Hindsight says I should have stuck to my guns about Melon, but it is virtually impossible when the thing isn't running! I couldn't say that was a value bet even if I had stuck to just him could I?
2018 - Did I learn from the mistake in 2017? Kind of... but mostly no! I took the 16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB about Getabird - however, let's back up. Did we know which was THE Mullins horse last season? Absolutely not! Starting at the start it was Annamix. He got ruled out and then Ricci had a few more that got talked up. Sharjah, Epicuris, Antey and Winter Soldier. There was also Sayar and Real Steal. What happened in the race, Getabird was rubbish and Mullins was nowhere.
If I am honest, with all of that said, was Annamix a smart play at 20/1? IS that value? I would have to say it isn't based on the past 5 years. Of course I hope I am wrong, it is better to be lucky than good after all :triumphant:
Iv personally taken a huge punt on him as if he is the one. (I believe he is of riccis) 5pts ew 3 pts win, assuming that he takes the easy route ie min and poss cash out the 3pts win . Mullins said in last year's stable tour that he's a 2 miler, joe chambers has said very simular. And rich said he hopes he's his one for the supreme so I wouldn't be worried about trip. Could be something else in the yard. I have blackbow / dento des obeaux / Allaho, all any race anyway.
jonthehammer
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2015
- Messages
- 1,807
- Reaction score
- 165
- Points
- 0
Hello all. Good to be back and reading all the great stuff on here.
I noticed Annamix has been cut again to 16s best price now.
I noticed Annamix has been cut again to 16s best price now.
It's still reasonable I think. The cash out is worth 5 pts on its own , as he's never going to be a huge price and one that rightly or wrongly I'd have thought you can always get out of. Bar injury ofcourse.
jonthehammer
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2015
- Messages
- 1,807
- Reaction score
- 165
- Points
- 0
Yes my only concern Scooby.
I may take some more 16s
Not sure where Good Boy Bobby will be Aimed at but notice he’s entered for two races on the 18th October
I may take some more 16s
Not sure where Good Boy Bobby will be Aimed at but notice he’s entered for two races on the 18th October
Adam93
Previous Lurker
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2018
- Messages
- 47
- Reaction score
- 6
- Points
- 8
Noticed a few others this morning are drifting between 16s and 12s on him now. Like others, managed to get on the last of the 20's with 365 following Riccis quote as my first of the year in this race.
Both of Good Boy Bobby's entries seem to be around 2m and I believe last year it was stated he would be going the 2m route?
Certainly one ill be keeping an eye on following the positivity pre-injury last year!
jack1092
Member
There have been quite a few talking horses from the Ricci camp, that haven't fulfilled their hype in recent years....Sympa Des Flos, Francin and Winter Soldier. Even Salsaretta.
I remmeber the first 3 featuring prominent in antepost markets, to then not make it to the track due to a setback, and never quite being as good.
Lets hope its not the same for Annamix.
I remmeber the first 3 featuring prominent in antepost markets, to then not make it to the track due to a setback, and never quite being as good.
Lets hope its not the same for Annamix.
BigChaang
Sha Tin Expert and FJ Patron
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2017
- Messages
- 5,647
- Reaction score
- 934
- Points
- 83
Less than a day later i have added Bullionaire @25-1 -w.hills.. weak willed ......that's definitely it ..... for now.
JackieMoon33
Professional Fat Jockey (Probably one for next yea
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2016
- Messages
- 5,787
- Reaction score
- 1,845
- Points
- 83
He was keen in his races last year and he has enough speed for 2m. I think if he’s going to be competitive at a higher grade it will be over further though based on breeding.