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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Rhinestone. Isn’t the average 23.5 or have I missed something bud?
 
jonthehammer said:
Rhinestone. Isn’t the average 23.5 or have I missed something bud?
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IF it was 1 pt on each win only)

You look at the return for each (say 22/1 is 23 pts and 25/1 26 pts) but divide each by 2 pts as that is your nactual stake on the horse

So 11.5 pts and 13 pts - so it is LIKE having backed any race, but with the slight favour towards whichever the bigger price was/is.


Not sure how well that explains it.
 
Annamix cut again today, only by a point, but by both Paddy Power & Betfair!
 
Just catching up on some alerts for this week and watched Tokay Dokey make is debut at Uttoxeter. He won a fairly average bumper last season but travelled well throughout and impressed me the way he made up ground after getting slightly boxed in. On his hurdles debut he was up against the expensive Dostal Phil of Philip Hobbs. He jumped great for such an inexperienced horse (no PTP run), travelled well through the race again and put it to bed with a turn of foot and two nice jumps at the end. He may not end up at the top table but he looks like he has loads of potential and is an out and out 2 miler by the look of it.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Just catching up on some alerts for this week and watched Tokay Dokey make is debut at Uttoxeter. He won a fairly average bumper last season but travelled well throughout and impressed me the way he made up ground after getting slightly boxed in. On his hurdles debut he was up against the expensive Dostal Phil of Philip Hobbs. He jumped great for such an inexperienced horse (no PTP run), travelled well through the race again and put it to bed with a turn of foot and two nice jumps at the end. He may not end up at the top table but he looks like he has loads of potential and is an out and out 2 miler by the look of it.
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Introduced at 66/1 for the Supreme I see.

Likely to be one that Skelton is looking for wins with through the season rather than have a big target in the Spring.
 
Kevloaf said:
Introduced at 66/1 for the Supreme I see.

Likely to be one that Skelton is looking for wins with through the season rather than have a big target in the Spring.
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I’m not going to dismiss him too quickly. The price reflects the connections as much as anything else and the fact he had a low profile debut. I’ll be surprised if he’s not one of Skeltons best novice hurdlers and at least he’ll be able to win again before any real reaction to his price.
 
Annamix smashed in today again, soon to be a general 10/1 chance. Looks like the 7/1 after his maiden might have been too conservative.
 
Scooby91 said:
Annamix smashed in today again, soon to be a general 10/1 chance. Looks like the 7/1 after his maiden might have been too conservative.
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It’s absolutely crazy. He’ll be 4/1 now after a facile debut success.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
It’s absolutely crazy. He’ll be 4/1 now after a facile debut success.
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Absolute madness. That said, it's probably still worth the 14/1 because we all know he'll be less than half that when he wins his maiden.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
It’s absolutely crazy. He’ll be 4/1 now after a facile debut success.
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Sounds about right. I do believe he's the one but it will give good opportunities behind him in the market when he is short. As all the money will be going one way.
 
Scooby91 said:
Sounds about right. I do believe he's the one but it will give good opportunities behind him in the market when he is short. As all the money will be going one way.
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Completely agree here... although I don’t think a bad debut will push him out now
 
Welshman said:
What is causing the reduction in price for annamix?
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I would suggest one (or possibly both) of two things:

a) The further price cuts are down to the sheer number of people (general public) that have backed him for relatively small stakes through ongoing word of mouth since RR's declaration on national TV that Annamix was his one to follow for the season

b) Annamix's work has been stepped up this last week and is showing signs that he will indeed reach the level he was showing this time last year. The ongoing price cut is mostly as a result of those close to the stable that know this and are betting accordingly, the same people that were mostly responsible for his significant price cut before he raced last year

Timing wise I suspect it is more a) but hoping as a backer that it is more b)
 
I would suggest it’s mostly A; people reading season previews etc at this time of the year and getting their antepost bets in order
 
Obviously be something no one on here would know but his first outing would look to be in 3-6 weeks and I’d have thought they would look to be stepping up his prep in that time.

Based on all of those assumptions I’ve decided it’s actually option B.
 
The gamble on Annamix is a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy now.

Once a bookie declares its been backed and it gets cut, people rush to get on - in here we've (on the whole) agreed the price is too short BUT it has to be backed because it'll get shorter still... and what do you know, it shortens again.

Fear of missing out drives a move like this more than informed stable money I'd imagine.


If you were connected to the Mullins yard, is finding the Supreme hot pot really the way you'd make your money? It is well made main-stream in the media when these big fancy prices do land (ATR, Racing Post all happy to quote it in and around the race etc) but I'd think an un-raced bumper horse that has a significant late market move is a lot more credible than a 5 month ante post poke with some high street bookmakers on the Supreme horse.
 
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I've done it...
Despite saying that I would leave the Supreme alone until NRNB and that I wouldn't get caught up in all the hype...

I've pulled the trigger on Annamix... :sorrow::sorrow::sorrow:




Disclaimer - It was a Free Bet with BetFred - who don't have an Any Race market....
 
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