Thinking about Top Notch, who before yesterday I was quite happy to be sat on at a very solid each way poke. Can't really make my mind up so will think out loud...
Ground
Top Notch doesn't seem ground dependant... has had wins on Heavy, Soft, Good to Soft but never won on Good ground in 3 attempts, so I'd be reluctant to say he'll IMPROVE for the likely festival ground. You could argue though his 2nd in the JLT on 'Good' behind Yorkhill was better form than some of his wins. I'd be concerned he hasn't won on good though.
Waiting Paitently and Cue Card are opposite ends of their careers but both appreciate cut in the ground. WP won't run on anything but soft now and Cue Card has very strong evidence to say that he now needs it to be soft for him to perform to his highest achievable level. Frodon also has his best form on soft ground and finished ahead of Top Notch yesterday...
I want to be sure the good-to-soft ground will reverse those placings, but I believe that'd be more to do with Frodon not acting on better ground than Top Notch improving for it.
Cheltenham
4 times at Cheltenham, 2nd, 5th, 5th, 2nd
On first glance that isn't great ... with no wins, the two seconds are a neck to Peace and Co in the Triumph 2015 and a closing 1L behind Yorkhill in that JLT (will come back to that). The 5th was in the CHampion Hurdle beaten 9.75L behind Annie Power which is a creditable run as a 5 y/o without being really worth anything. The other 5th was in the Relkeel in heavy ground beaten 21L.
I think it would be foolish to say he doesn't act around Cheltenham, because two 2nds in Group 1 races is nothing to be sniffed at... what I would say though, is that it is not a positive for him either... I have watched all 4 races back and you can't say he relishes the hill.
That JLT form
Will go straight on to it as it has popped in to my head, and just thinking out loud, but are we MASSIVELY over rating that JLT from last year?
1st - Yorkhill - 3 runs since, beaten a neck by Road to Respect (Who was a handicap winner at the time), then flopped 59L at Christmas and 81L last time out. As much as everybody likes Yorkhill and thinks he is talented, that has NOT been proven since he won this JLT?
3rd - Disko - I remember when he won the FLogas taking a big price for the JLT instantly and being very bullish about his front running chances of placing. I think Disko got a very strange ride where they didn't make the most of his CLEAR stamina advantage and I'd be happy to say this 3rd was not Disko's best run... he stepped up to 3m and won at Punchestown and his only run this season over 2m3f looks good on paper still (beating BAllyoisin, Ball D'arc and A Toi Phil easily enough) Hard to knock this form but I would say because Disko hasn't run since, and Ballyoisin fell next time out, and the two gigginstown runners have also been easily dismissed since by 3 milers PP and Our Duke, it isn't the strongest piece of form you could hang your hat on.... potentially over rated?
(I'll add I do like these horses I am just questiong whether I have been over rating them too)
4th - Politilogue - Now he's obviously now got good form in the book, but at 2miles. Fell when likely to win at Aintree 2m, wins at Execter, Sandown and Kempton all 2m (or 1m7f) before being beaten 4L by Altior, which in fairness, isn't an awful result either. What i'd be confident in saying that proves is that Politilogue does NOT want any further than 2 miles... and to use his 2mile form to boost the form/chances of horses that are running over further is very dangerous. Sometimes horses are just much better at specific trips and there fore how good Poli is over 2m, doesn't mean Top Notch is as good at 2m5f. (An example would be thinking that DOuvan is the best Gold CUp horse because he beat Sizing John over 2m)
5th - Kilcrea Vale - He has been tipped up by David Jennings I remember and he used the term "ran well in that JLT ... since then he has form figures of 82392 - no wins, the seconds were in handicap company and I don't see how Kilcrea Vale is boosting this form at all.
6th - Flying Angel - Strange one, he beat Cloudy Dream at Aintree (who subsequently might look like he doesn't give his all in his finishes) but that is still a decent run HOWEVER since then, he has been 5438 (the 3rd was in a 4 runner race). For me, Flying Angel also does NOT boost the form.
It obviously isn't bad form... but if we take out Politilogue (which I think is fair enough in terms of worthwhile Ryanair form) we're left with Disko beating Ballyoisin who hasn't (through no fault of his own) been able to show that is worthwhile and a win for Flying Angel last season, over the Arkle 2nd ... who again, has done nothing for the form at all since. What we are left with is Top Notch's actual form....
Top Notch's actual form
SInce the JLT then, he was beaten by FLying Angel and CLoudy Dream at Aintree.
He reappeared over hurdles and was 3rd out of 3 behind Unowhatimeanharry which as form is just one to put a line through.
He beat Double Shuffle by 8L at Ascot in November, and Double Shuffle went on to enhance the look of that with a 2nd in the King George... if that form is belieable and Double Shuffle's rating is now accurate, that looks a strong piece of form however it is over a different distance and at this stage I am more inclined to think it flatters Double Shuffle more than he stepped up to a huge rating. Also in behind he had Frodon who does look to have improved in winning that handicap last month - however finished close to Top Notch yesterday on favourable ground and didn;t look like being good enough to win the race.
Top Notch's next run was at Taunton in the re-arranged Peterborough where he beat Josses Hill, Ptit Zig and Vainteaux - non of which would be placed in a Ryanair anymore... not BAD form but nothing to get excited about.
His last run was yesterday, where he was in a good looking position 4 out, and faded after that. Not a bad run, but very hard to be overly excited about his chances based on that.
I did think the bookies may have over reacted by pushing him out on first glance to 8/1, however, I really have talked myself out of his chances of being good enough to win this race. Place claims still? Perhaps.... but I don't think those claims are as strong as I thought they were. I certainly would NOT back Top Notch each way at 8/1 with any confidence. I do have Top Notch backed e/w as mentioned earlier. Definitely looking elsewhere for the winner now.
