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Ryanair Chase 2018

Rubbish decision on Cue Card...

The proverbial roof would come off if Cue Card won the Ryanair 5 years on so I don't understand why they'd go for a race he has an incredibly small chance of winning over one that has always looked more suitable anyway.

I wouldn't back Cue Card at 100/1 in the Gold Cup, fairytale schmarytale.... do what is right for the horse, let's NOT see him having a tired fall or pulled up which I fear very much!
 
Kevloaf said:
Rubbish decision on Cue Card...

The proverbial roof would come off if Cue Card won the Ryanair 5 years on so I don't understand why they'd go for a race he has an incredibly small chance of winning over one that has always looked more suitable anyway.

I wouldn't back Cue Card at 100/1 in the Gold Cup, fairytale schmarytale.... do what is right for the horse, let's NOT see him having a tired fall or pulled up which I fear very much!
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The late owners dream was of him winning the GC. He's got very little chance but I can deffinately see why she is sending him there. Her husband 100% would have done the same. It was always on the cards.
 
Barry on Coney Island......

My other two rides on Saturday were disappointing. DIEG MAN didn’t make the step up in the handicap hurdle, he was never at the races and he weakened quickly, while CONEY ISLAND couldn’t get into a rhythm in the Ascot Chase.

They went a hell of a pace from the start, it was a very strong race, and he just couldn’t operate at that speed. His jumping suffered. If he had jumped better he would have been able to stay in it, but he didn’t jump fluently and that left him struggling to go the pace. That was disappointing because he was such a good jumper as a novice.

We were struggling when he made a bad mistake at the fence going away from the stands, and the sensible thing to do was pull him up then. There was no pointing persevering. He is better than that so hopefully he can bounce back.



Impossible to fancy Coney Island on the back of that run. Very tempted to cash everything out.
 
Kevloaf said:
Barry on Coney Island......

My other two rides on Saturday were disappointing. DIEG MAN didn’t make the step up in the handicap hurdle, he was never at the races and he weakened quickly, while CONEY ISLAND couldn’t get into a rhythm in the Ascot Chase.

They went a hell of a pace from the start, it was a very strong race, and he just couldn’t operate at that speed. His jumping suffered. If he had jumped better he would have been able to stay in it, but he didn’t jump fluently and that left him struggling to go the pace. That was disappointing because he was such a good jumper as a novice.

We were struggling when he made a bad mistake at the fence going away from the stands, and the sensible thing to do was pull him up then. There was no pointing persevering. He is better than that so hopefully he can bounce back.



Impossible to fancy Coney Island on the back of that run. Very tempted to cash everything out.
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Iv cashed all out personally for just money back.
Doubt he'll go.
 
Lad are now 6/1 NRNB for Fox Norton and the target is now all but confirmed....

Tizzard said: "After he ran in the Game Spirit last year he was lame in his back and we had to give him a few injections as he had a slightly kissing spine. He had that after this year's King George, that is why he didn't jump at all.

"He is absolutely fine now. We missed the Game Spirit with pus in his foot. That is still rumbling about now. He will be fine.

"I expect we will go for the two-and-a-half-miler, unless Altior frightens everyone off, then we might take him on.
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UDS is fav and Waiting Paitently both fav...

I think it is FAIR to say that neither SHOULD be Fav on the expected Good ground (WP won't run and UDS defintiely isn't optimum conditions)

Next in is Fox Norton... [will come back to]

Then Top Notch (who ran below par and doesn't strike me as the winner as I covered in an earlier more detailed post)
Min (won't run)
Balko Des Flos - I give him place claims but BDF winning the Ryanair? Not the best Gigginstown horse to have tried which isn't solid reason to knock him personally but ... all the same.
DOuvan (unlikely runner!)
Yorkhill, would need an almighty bounce back to last years form
Cloudy Dream, place claims only for me
Frodon, again, looks well held and only has place claims
Benie Des Dieux - unlikely runner, no form entitles her to be that short
Djakadam - will be going GC
Cue Card - looks like going GC (although I have got a biggish exchange price so hope not) ...
Coney Island - impossible to fancy on the back
Bachasson - I like but place claims ... not even the owners best chance.
GOld Present - won't be running
Killultagh Vic - Won't be running
Sub Lieut - Well held and couldn't do it previously
Not going to do the rest but no obvious chances!

So back to Fox Norton.... 6/1, pick 3 ahead of him on good ground? I can't. Reluctantly admit he's got more chance than UDS on good ground, and WP won't run.... which means for me Fox Norton should be fav.

I had 2.5 pts any race earlier in the season

Going to add Fox Norton NRNB at 6/1 now to make him my biggest winner in the race.

My stance all season has been I want to see the market form.... however now there are only Min, Douvan and Potentially Yorkhil ltrhat I can see being fav usurping UDS... and UDS I think can be taken on ...... because if the ground is good, he's vulnerable, and if its soft, Waiting Paitently would run and beat him anyway?

I've not been keen on Fox Norton all season.... and this is quite a U-turn really for me... but ALL of my fancies have fallen by the wayside.... Yorkhill, Coney Island, Top Notch, Waiting Paitently ...

Note - I do have a few others backed in this race!
 
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Kevloaf said:
Lad are now 6/1 NRNB for Fox Norton and the target is now all but confirmed....



UDS is fav and Waiting Paitently both fav...

I think it is FAIR to say that neither SHOULD be Fav on the expected Good ground (WP won't run and UDS defintiely isn't optimum conditions)

Next in is Fox Norton... [will come back to]

Then Top Notch (who ran below par and doesn't strike me as the winner as I covered in an earlier more detailed post)
Min (won't run)
Balko Des Flos - I give him place claims but BDF winning the Ryanair? Not the best Gigginstown horse to have tried which isn't solid reason to knock him personally but ... all the same.
DOuvan (unlikely runner!)
Yorkhill, would need an almighty bounce back to last years form
Cloudy Dream, place claims only for me
Frodon, again, looks well held and only has place claims
Benie Des Dieux - unlikely runner, no form entitles her to be that short
Djakadam - will be going GC
Cue Card - looks like going GC (although I have got a biggish exchange price so hope not) ...
Coney Island - impossible to fancy on the back
Bachasson - I like but place claims ... not even the owners best chance.
GOld Present - won't be running
Killultagh Vic - Won't be running
Sub Lieut - Well held and couldn't do it previously
Not going to do the rest but no obvious chances!

So back to Fox Norton.... 6/1, pick 3 ahead of him on good ground? I can't. Reluctantly admit he's got more chance than UDS on good ground, and WP won't run.... which means for me Fox Norton should be fav.

I had 2.5 pts any race earlier in the season

Going to add Fox Norton NRNB at 6/1 now to make him my biggest winner in the race.

My stance all season has been I want to see the market form.... however now there are only Min, Douvan and Potentially Yorkhil ltrhat I can see being fav usurping UDS... and UDS I think can be taken on ...... because if the ground is good, he's vulnerable, and if its soft, Waiting Paitently would run and beat him anyway?

I've not been keen on Fox Norton all season.... and this is quite a U-turn really for me... but ALL of my fancies have fallen by the wayside.... Yorkhill, Coney Island, Top Notch, Waiting Paitently ...

Note - I do have a few others backed in this race!
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Can still see Yorkhill turning up for this myself.

Good write up though, and agree, it is looking weak again now that Fox Norton should enter calculations.
 
If Yorkhill did turn up and I had to choose between the two, I'd pick Yorkhill but I wouldn't feel particularly strongly because the doubts around him now are blindgly obvious. I have also got Yorkhill backed at a price I'm happy enough with.

Might be time to do our 1/2/3's in each race while we wait for the handicap weights...
 
Kevloaf said:
If Yorkhill did turn up and I had to choose between the two, I'd pick Yorkhill but I wouldn't feel particularly strongly because the doubts around him now are blindgly obvious. I have also got Yorkhill backed at a price I'm happy enough with.

Might be time to do our 1/2/3's in each race while we wait for the handicap weights...
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Good summary there on the market. Fox Norton probably does have the least amount of negatives in the field.
His Cheltenham record is very good - 1211132. He was a head away from winning at all 3 spring festivals last year.
I'll likely be siding with any Mullins runner that gets 'parachuted' into the race but he holds the most stable and solid credentials and the fact he is still an each way place is appealing.

ps. like the idea of the 1-2-3 in each race :encouragement:
 
Good ground...
1. Fox Norton
2. Top Notch
3. Yorkhill

That was too hard.
 
ryanh97 said:
That must've pained you Kev :devilish:
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Yeah I just read it without realising it was mine and instantly disagreed.

Why would I have Top Notch beating Yorkhill, and no UDS?

Anyway, unfortunately FOx Norton is the best bet in the race IMO now haha
 
Does anyone give God's own an ew chance at 50-1 solid festival form (was unlucky in the cc last year with the mistake 2 out) only just behind uds and fox Norton at Punchestown last summer too. Hasn't really fired this season but at the price worth a punt?
 
taylorch1990 said:
Does anyone give God's own an ew chance at 50-1 solid festival form (was unlucky in the cc last year with the mistake 2 out) only just behind uds and fox Norton at Punchestown last summer too. Hasn't really fired this season but at the price worth a punt?
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Goes for the Champion Chase according to Tom George in his article today ..... 50/1 in that too....
 
Thanks for the update, little bit surprised the champion chase could be the race of the festival if they all turn up whereas the Ryanair looks to be cutting up a bit.
 
I am not convinced that the Waiting Patiently/Cue Card form will stand the test of time. I am not for one moment having a dig at either horse who both were great last time out. However the distance back to Frodon and Top Notch was far too great for me to believe that Top Notch in particular ran to his normal level of form. As it seems unlikely that either WP or CC will actually run in the Ryanair I am going to forgive Top Notch one bad run and flag him up at great value at 8-1. I admit I seem to be developing a habit of forgiving my horses for a previous bad run - I don't know if it's just because I am a nice guy or is simply down to the fact that I am a shocking tipster��
 
Cue Card now runs here according to a good source.
 
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