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Novice Chasers 2027

Runragged said:
He is also now the top yard in the UK with the best facilities at a time when many trainers haven't been able to get their horses on the gallops. That's not counting for the fact he is chasing as many winners as possible and so unsurprisingly has his horses fit and ready to go from the off. Think a lot of people could get sucked into the early season form of his horses when looking at Cheltenham.
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Don't think many will. Most are well aware how early it is and that other top stables haven't even opened for business yet.
 
Lobos said:
Don't think many will. Most are well aware how early it is and that other top stables haven't even opened for business yet.
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You're not on X much then? :ROFLMAO: Racing Blogger has put that KDM run up as one of the top ten chase debuts of his lifetime... Plenty are saying he win the Arkle based on that.
 
Irish Rugby said:
A lot of excitement both here and across social media generally with Skelton's two novices this week.

Fair enough but It's barely mid October, we've seen no other GB novice chasers of note, and the Irish are yet to show their hand.

Dare I say, it's all a bit presumptuous?
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Its always going to happen, happens every year. Both runs were largely meaningless, and I personally couldn't care less about them as I think they mean absolutely nothing.

I fancy kabral du mathan for the arkle because I think hes a very good horse, and probably has more ability than the likes of old park star and sober glory. But the amount I fancy him hasn't really changed much after yesterday. Its nice that he didnt fall and put in some good leaps, made nice shapes etc. But so did jimmy du seuil on his chasing debut. It can be easy enough to make nice shapes when its basically a schooling session with no other horse interested in winning and no horses upsides him putting pressure on. All it really tells us is he's decent at jumping when theres no pressure on him, which is nice but probably always likely anyway.

Sinnatra I didnt really have on my mind, so his performance is similarly meaningless to me. He jumped nice enough, and possibly had a bit more to beat than kabral, but was still a poor race. Lot of people talking about how Skelton didnt move on him, but he hasn't struck me as a horse that finds a lot when asked anyway, so not sure the winning distance would have been a whole lot more if he was asked.

Also on a side note, while I was watching the kabral race the fences didnt look overly challenging to me? Maybe someone a bit more familiar with the course would know more, but on the one viewing I seen of them they looked small enough, so not sure they are the greatest test either, but maybe just might have been the camera angle.

Basically at this time of year these horses are going to keep shortening for doing nothing, so im backing some of them who I know are going to shorten with the idea of laying off my stake, maybe before they even run if they get short enough, or after they win a nothing race. Narciso has is another example of this. I dont particularly rate him highly, i just thought he was decent, I wasnt hugely impressed with him last season and dont know why some people seem to think he's the second coming, but nevertheless they do. So people are going to keep bigging him up, and hes trained by mullins and owned by jp, so he'll keep shortening. Wouldn't surprise me if he was 5s or 6s for the arkle before he even runs, which is insanity, but it happens every year. And if he wins a nothing race against horses who have no interest in getting close to him, he'll probably be 3/1. So its a good idea to get him backed at double figures, even if like me you dont particularly fancy him at this stage.
 
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Parachute Paddy said:
Maybe because Casey said HoF could start over 2m in the interview? He did caveat it with the ‘trip doesn’t matter’ to start with.
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Yeah i didn't take much from that to be honest. All still wide open with him. He is short for both races so i will see where he is entered and the distance and if it's a 'gimmie' of a race then maybe just put a bit down 'win only' as a bit of a down payment with a view to acting afterwards or not
 
Runragged said:
You're not on X much then? :ROFLMAO: Racing Blogger has put that KDM run up as one of the top ten chase debuts of his lifetime... Plenty are saying he win the Arkle based on that.
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He is a bell cap. All those hospital videos were on before i was booted off it. I was impressed with KDM and glad he won but the price is an indictment of the markets these days. No way would i call him the winner though when literally nothing else has run in the division, especially from the emerald isle.
 
Parachute Paddy said:
Maybe because Casey said HoF could start over 2m in the interview? He did caveat it with the ‘trip doesn’t matter’ to start with.
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My view is that Casey only said that because Ginger Joe opinionated that he thinks HoF is a 2 miler. I think he'll start at 2m4 and hopefully first try at 3m will be in the BANC.
 
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Parachute Paddy said:
Maybe because Casey said HoF could start over 2m in the interview? He did caveat it with the ‘trip doesn’t matter’ to start with.
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Yes , I think your'e right .. f.w.i.w. corals
Still 7 -1 b.a.n.c. and 12 -1 arkle for HoF.
 
If King Rasko stays hurdling, who else does Willie have for the novice chases outside of He's On Fire and Narciso Has that could be potential winners? I can't think of too many.
 
Runragged said:
You're not on X much then? :ROFLMAO: Racing Blogger has put that KDM run up as one of the top ten chase debuts of his lifetime... Plenty are saying he win the Arkle based on that.
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Soz, I meant those on here not the Twatter lot
 
YoungHustler said:
If King Rasko stays hurdling, who else does Willie have for the novice chases outside of He's On Fire and Narciso Has that could be potential winners? I can't think of too many.
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Apolon, Anzadam, Mighty Park, Kawaboomga...
 
With Kabral I will say that horses that stay that extra season over hurdles in open company don't tend to hit that novice chase G1 elite over fences these days. It's a weird paradox as you'd think a horse that is capable of mixing it in elite hurdle company will translate well to running against novices again the season after, but they generally fall short. Edwardstone the last arkle winner to run in open company over hurdles (I think?) and even that was a shit renewal - I can't remember the one before that. As a rule I'm always happy to oppose those horses for the novice chases
 
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Ellisgittings said:
With Kabral I will say that horses that stay that extra season over hurdles in open company don't tend to hit that novice chase G1 elite over fences these days. It's a weird paradox as you'd think a horse that is capable of mixing it in elite hurdle company will translate well to running against novices again the season after, but they generally fall short. Edwardstone the last arkle winner to run in open company over hurdles (I think?) and even that was a shit renewal - I can't remember the one before that. As a rule I'm always happy to oppose those horses for the novice chases
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Yep, agree re the extra season over hurdles.Much prefer the Nov hurdlers going chasing straight away.
Not so sure about the elite company bit though looking back at the horses he ran against last season.
The stayers had two 11 year olds and Ballyburn the first three home.
Jingko Blue, Lucky Place etc !!

Not saying he’s not a contender for the Arkle, but personally would not get carried away with his hurdle form .
 
Is the starting point for this years Arkle not last years novice hurdlers ?
 
Istabraq said:
Is the starting point for this years Arkle not last years novice hurdlers ?
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Always the starting point. Think people are trying to over complicate it looking for a price...

Which is fair enough as a way into the race I guess. But I'm not getting involved in either of the Skelton horses from this week or Narciso.
 
Istabraq said:
Is the starting point for this years Arkle not last years novice hurdlers ?
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Always should be imo. That's why I've been spending the summer getting OPS on board and Sober Glory after they confirmed he was going chasing. Then gives me room to cover anything else that impresses once the season starts. I did like both of Skelton's this week.
 
Istabraq said:
Is the starting point for this years Arkle not last years novice hurdlers ?
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Maybe but there have been several examples that break that thought this century......

Edwardstown
Sizing Europe
My Way De Solzen
Moscow Flyer

Captain Chris also ran in Persian War as 2nd season hurdler before switching to Chasing the same season.

Have I missed any??
 
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Lobos said:
Maybe but there have been several examples that break that thought this century......

Edwardstown
Sizing Europe
My Way De Solzen
Moscow Flyer

Captain Chris also ran in Persian War as 2nd season hurdler before switching to Chasing the same season.

Have I missed any??
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Footpad?
 
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