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2027 The Prices on Offer

Harry Fry on IDAHO SUN, per @mp_horseracing:

"When you think Mydaddypaddy is now rated 154, I'd love to start off in something like the Greatwood off 142 and see where that takes us.

"That's what will keep us dreaming through the summer."

Notes from Twitter
 
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He had the 4yo Its Gino / La Rusee gelding & the 5yo Nirvana Du Berlais / From You To Me gelding that I was waiting to see named & entered this season, guess they'll be horses for next year now as long as they're both sound...and still with Nicky.
 
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So looking at 2027 prices I've knocked up a list of horses for me to start backing in roll ups, win singles and some doubles/trebles etc.

As sure we can be atm, its all a bit guess work really but you think these targets look about right, probable ?

* Supreme - Feel Gut.
* Arkle - Old Park Star, Sober Glory and Kabral Du Mathan.
* Champion Hurdle - Lossiemouth.
* Brown Advisory - No Drama This End.
* Champion Chase - Kopek Des Bordes and Kargese.
* Mares Hurdle - Wodhooh, White Noise and Air Of Entitlement.
* Stayers - The New Lion and Ballyburn.
* Gold Cup - Gaelic Warrior.

Cheers for any input.
 
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IstabraqBarRegular said:
So looking at 2027 prices I've knocked up a list of horses for me to start backing in roll ups, win singles and some doubles/trebles etc.

As sure we can be atm, its all a bit guess work really but you think these targets look about right, probable ?

* Supreme - Feel Gut.
* Arkle - Old Park Star, Sober Glory and Kabral Du Mathan.
* Champion Hurdle - Lossiemouth.
* Brown Advisory - No Drama This End.
* Champion Chase - Kopek Des Bordes and Kargese.
* Mares Hurdle - Wodhooh, White Noise and Air Of Entitlement.
* Stayers - The New Lion and Ballyburn.
* Gold Cup - Gaelic Warrior.

Cheers for any input.
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I agree with most of your list but personally couldn't have Feel Gut at the price. I was a very big fan of the French form line, but Macho Man hasn't done much for it (yet). Forty Fifty ran well, admittedly.

Also, based on what we've seen on the racecourse, I much prefer Roccontier at 33/1 of the two Henderson 4yo novices. I thought that was a smashing hurdles debut. No idea what it's beaten of course, but the manner of the win and the run style seemed (a) impressive and (b) very well suited to a Supreme. Given that they are both with Henderson, if they both prove to be top drawer, they may be split between the Turners and Supreme and on what we've seen, I think Feel Gut would be the more likely to step up.

On trainers comments and what's been achieved on the racecourse, I think The Mourne Rambler is about the only one I'd be keen to back at this stage for the Supreme.
 
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If I took one thing away from Cheltenham 2026 it was to never ever ever bet on any of the Novice Hurdle races until February. It is a one way road to the Poor House. And if I do break and fancy one then don't ruin any Multiple bets with them. Stick to Single bets only. But. Am trying hard to never ever ever bet on any of the Novice Hurdle races until February. Ever again.
 
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BuckingThe Trend said:
If I took one thing away from Cheltenham 2026 it was to never ever ever bet on any of the Novice Hurdle races until February. It is a one way road to the Poor House. And if I do break and fancy one then don't ruin any Multiple bets with them. Stick to Single bets only. But. Am trying hard to never ever ever bet on any of the Novice Hurdle races until February. Ever again.
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I guess it very much depends on your circumstances and betting style.

For me, 'chasing' the Supreme & Novice Hurdle winners proved profitable this season. The Albert Bartlett, however, a disaster, although overall from the three races I was in profit.

I've decided, after a struggle the two seasons prior, that I like to attack days 1 & 2 so that I achieve at least my stakes back heading into days 3 & 4. The two seasons before I was relying on Day 4 to get me out the s**t and I could not enjoy the racing at all, even though, thankfully, it did work out, in the end.
 
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With Feel Gut I think he's a chaser and looked very green still last time out. The first day looked like a step up would benefit but I think he'll stay at 2m and follow the supreme Arkle route, if good enough.
 
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Agree COD. I've attacked day 1 and 2 for many years now and have always done really well. This year I managed to get 7 winners at very good prices from the first 9 races having laid out very little which put me well into profit for the week .Thursday was difficult as it always seems to be and Friday was ok.
I really should just concentrate solely on the first two days and then lock myself away!

I absolutely love the opening day which is why I've nicknamed it Super Tuesday. Long may it continue.
 
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BuckingThe Trend said:
If I took one thing away from Cheltenham 2026 it was to never ever ever bet on any of the Novice Hurdle races until February. It is a one way road to the Poor House. And if I do break and fancy one then don't ruin any Multiple bets with them. Stick to Single bets only. But. Am trying hard to never ever ever bet on any of the Novice Hurdle races until February. Ever again.
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I admire your willpower as I tend to get most enjoyment trying to find the next big stars. That is what got me into the sport antepost wise. I wouldn't want to be landing on Old Park Star for example in February and looking at 9/4.
 
CJW said:
I admire your willpower as I tend to get most enjoyment trying to find the next big stars. That is what got me into the sport antepost wise. I wouldn't want to be landing on Old Park Star for example in February and looking at 9/4.
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Doesn't have to be that bad. WTAF bets can boost a price if you fancy one before their final run. 26 of the last 30 winners of the Supreme had won on their last start. A recent exception in Slade Steel could have been well covered in the related double with Ballyburn in the Turners having beaten him at the DRF. I got 9/1 OPS and 12/1 TTT before their pre-festival wins (I'm sure bigger could have been had with the right timing) yet both started as favourites for their preps. Sober Glory was a fair price up until a few hours of the race as well though I am sure could of been had at a decent WTAF price also.

I will probably have a couple of early darts at the novice races as it's always a bit of fun, but the main bets I will look to get on will be from the prep races.
 
Runragged said:
Doesn't have to be that bad. WTAF bets can boost a price if you fancy one before their final run. 26 of the last 30 winners of the Supreme had won on their last start. A recent exception in Slade Steel could have been well covered in the related double with Ballyburn in the Turners having beaten him at the DRF. I got 9/1 OPS and 12/1 TTT before their pre-festival wins (I'm sure bigger could have been had with the right timing) yet both started as favourites for their preps. Sober Glory was a fair price up until a few hours of the race as well though I am sure could of been had at a decent WTAF price also.

I will probably have a couple of early darts at the novice races as it's always a bit of fun, but the main bets I will look to get on will be from the prep races.
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100% agree. Poster mentioned no pre February bets. Winner this year would of been 9/4 shot then.
 
I wonder how many darts people throw before they do find a 20/1 Old Park Star ?
How many hype horses do you back without cashout and how many get injured, run elsehere or are just not very good ?
I've had the last two Supreme winners at 25/1 and 12/1 and I'm 100% down in the last two renewals of the race.
I'm 100% with @BuckingThe Trend
 
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Istabraq said:
I wonder how many darts people throw before they do find a 20/1 Old Park Star ?
How many hype horses do you back without cashout and how many get injured, run elsehere or are just not very good ?
I've had the last two Supreme winners at 25/1 and 12/1 and I'm 100% down in the last two renewals of the race.
I'm 100% with @BuckingThe Trend
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Big price winners of last two years and still down. I can understand why you agree.
 
Istabraq said:
I wonder how many darts people throw before they do find a 20/1 Old Park Star ?
How many hype horses do you back without cashout and how many get injured, run elsehere or are just not very good ?
I've had the last two Supreme winners at 25/1 and 12/1 and I'm 100% down in the last two renewals of the race.
I'm 100% with @BuckingThe Trend
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Absolutely something worth asking, and I would say a fair few darts, especially in my case.

A lot of my free bets from now until next March go towards the Supreme, more so than any other race. I like to get off to the best possible start. I record the P/L for the release of the free bets, provided I'm betting on something I wouldn't normally do. If it's something I'd be betting on anyway I don't include these figures, win or lose, as this is taken into account in my day to day betting anyway.
 
I feel with how the prices are now we have to take opinions on horses more than ever

Iv always done that as i tend to back 2 or 3 horses in most races.

Id consider myself a profile backer. Im looking for horses who have a similar profile to the winners i have backed in the past. For example when nicky has a top one they always seem to go and win the supreme, get that covered and what won the 2 mile grade 1s at xmas/drf in ireland you have the winner most years. Something with 2 mile grade 1/2 form or even better a win usually seems to win the turners.

I do have the benefit though of not needing to be on that many winners to turn a profit so can be patient.

I dont really see how book builders do it profitably myself these days as prices are so poor. Id imagine those that do the ROI has been slowly decreasing the last 4 or 5 seasons as the value has slowly been squeezed.

Do you guys use roll ups to boost odds? Does that give extra value? Do enough roll ups win to mitigate the shorter prices? Are you placing more than you used to?

Im just interested to see how others are adjusting

Personally i dont bother with the bumper or bartlett anymore. Didnt bet in the mares novice this year. That will likely continue.

And if the results continue to go like they are the triumph may join the club. Though i have backed 4 winners in the 8 years iv been doing ante post properly in that race so wont let a couple of shocks put me off just yet.
 
What are people's opinions on Fact To File? Ryanair best priced 6/1, 10 year old next year but not supplemented for the gold cup this year, do we think he'll go next year?

6/1 for the Ryanair looks big if he lines up, weather permitting aswell to take into account. It does have the look of a potentially a great race but just wanted to see if anyone has any strong views on his target?

That being said, he'll have two options next year and can easily back for both at the current odds.
 
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