….how Timeform rate the Novices;
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 158
Old Park Star had created a good impression when winning his first two starts over hurdles and showed much-improved form when completing his hat-trick in the Sky Supreme Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at Haydock in January.
He ran out an 18-length winner on that occasion - doing so in an excellent time - and earned a Timeform rating of 155p which marks him out as the clear standard setter in the novice hurdle division. Leading Irish novice
Talk The Talk(148p) is the next highest rated among the Supreme entries.
Old Park Star heads into the Supreme having achieved more on form than a top-rated contender in a typical year; indeed, the last time a horse went into the Supreme with such a high rating was Altior - also trained by Nicky Henderson and also rated 155p - in 2016. Douvan, rated 156P in 2015, was the last Supreme contender rated higher.
He hasn't quite reached the average rating of a Supreme winner in the past ten years, but he has much less improvement to make than most of his rivals and his Haydock form would have been good enough to win some lesser renewals.
Mighty Park (140P) and
El Cairos (133P) are two contenders with the Timeform 'large P' to signify they are capable of much better form, though Mighty Park's Festival target remains unclear.
Mean Timeform performance rating of last ten winners: 153.4
The New Lion produced a very smart performance - and a better one than is typically required in the race - to provide Britain with its first winner of the Turners Novices' Hurdle since Willoughby Court scored in 2017.
Another British contender,
No Drama This End (142p), has dominated the ante-post market for most of the winter but has recently been joined at the head of the betting by a couple of potential contenders from Ireland in
Mighty Park(140P) and
Talk The Talk (148p). Talk The Talk's trainer, Joseph O'Brien, told the Press Association on Monday that the Supreme remains his most likely target, however.
No Drama This End has won all three starts over hurdles this season, most notably the Grade 1 Challow at Newbury - the race used as a springboard by The New Lion last year. No Drama This End is rated only 1lb lower than The New Lion (143P) was prior to last year's Festival, but there are some Irish contenders who have achieved more on ratings so far.
Doctor Steinberg (149p) would narrowly top the ratings if coming here in preference to the Albert Bartlett, while Talk The Talk has a couple of smart pieces of form to his name. He fell at the final flight when looking likely to win the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, leaving the door open for
Skylight Hustle (146p), but gained compensation in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle when doing well to come from off a steady pace to chin Ballyfad (144p).
