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2026 Ryanair Chase

Lobos said:
You do know it's just punters following the money Darlo??

Gold Cup all the way.
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could be

brave souls got some fair figures Gaelic all the same all the way down to 10/3 from 6.6

and tbf

you were saying it was punters laying him yesterday that were the culprits so you sure :ROFLMAO:
 
JP will want to give his fav horse Jonbon one final chance to win at the Festival. The Ryanair is the only race he can win and he won't be winning it with F2F in there. Another reason imo why F2F will go GC.
 
Reckon Patrick will get his way and ride Gaelic in the GC. Some have said that Willie could send IET to the Ryanair which would give PT a decent chance in that race.
So many options. D-Day March 7th.
 
For a quick example of how meaningless these exchange moves are.

Yesterday after jim posted about fact to file edging into fave, I had a quick look over my ryanair bets and thought that I was in an extremely good position if fact to file doesn't go, so I thought I can afford to have a big enough bet on fact to file as a cover, and if he doesn't go, I don't care.

I then went onto the exchange and cleared out everything above 3.0 - about 200 quid in total I believe. Best available back price after I did this was about 2.6-2.7 I believe.

In the hours after this, I started seeing screenshots on twitter of fact to file at 2.6 and gaelic at 5 and higher with captions such as "fact to file gone into clear fave now" and "look like decision made, ryanair it is". Others with larger followings started seeing these posts and they started posting themselves about "looks like it could be ryanair after all". This has no doubt made more people back him for the ryanair last night and today.

When I checked this morning, I think total amount put on him in the past 24 hours is about 2k, if I'm reading the graph right. 200 quid of that is mine, and I have no idea where he's going. If I had to guess, I'd say gold cup. I'd also guess that with all the twitter posts in the past day, another group of people with no idea where he's going have backed him for the ryanair, either covering themselves like me, or out of fomo or panic.

If "decision was made" there would be a lot more put on him in the past day than there has been, and you wouldn't be able to back him right now at 2.8 when he'd be a 1.5 shot or something on the day.
 
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riccirich said:
For a quick example of how meaningless these exchange moves are.

Yesterday after jim posted about fact to file edging into fave, I had a quick look over my ryanair bets and thought that I was in an extremely good position if fact to file doesn't go, so I thought I can afford to have a big enough bet on fact to file as a cover, and if he doesn't go, I don't care.

I then went onto the exchange and cleared out everything above 3.0 - about 200 quid in total I believe. Best available back price after I did this was about 2.6-2.7 I believe.

In the hours after this, I started seeing screenshots on twitter of fact to file at 2.6 and gaelic at 5 and higher with captions such as "fact to file gone into clear fave now" and "look like decision made, ryanair it is". Others with larger followings started seeing these posts and they started posting themselves about "looks like it could be ryanair after all". This has no doubt made more people back him for the ryanair last night and today.

When I checked this morning, I think total amount put on him in the past 24 hours is about 2k, if I'm reading the graph right. 200 quid of that is mine, and I have no idea where he's going. If I had to guess, I'd say gold cup. I'd also guess that with all the twitter posts in the past day, another group of people with no idea where he's going have backed him for the ryanair, either covering themselves like me, or out of fomo or panic.

If "decision was made" there would be a lot more put on him in the past day than there has been, and you wouldn't be able to back him right now at 2.8 when he'd be a 1.5 shot or something on the day.
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The matched amount isn't even the true volume on selections as well. Divide that number by 2 for the true volume. Like you say illiquid meaningless markets for the most part. Predominantly being played by people trading price fluctuation.
 
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There’s plenty of very smart folks on here uninterested in backing GW at anything below 8. Lobos thinks that’s because of IEP participation but nobody wants to back him below 24. Why is nobody interested in backing either at a multiple of what they would be if they pitched up and double or more what they can get ante post with a bookmaker. I guess my point is it’s not just about explaining movements in F2F in isolation it’s the whole picture. What the exchange is telling us is nobody is closing their book on GW only on F2F and if both are going GC then why doesn’t anybody want to back IEP at say 21. Do we really think the trainer won’t have anything?

Are we saying that there is absolutely nothing to see here. I 100% agree there’s no definitive decision made but that’s different from there being nothing to see. Can someone smarter than me provide an explanation for the whole picture not just F2F.
 
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Rooster Booster said:
There’s plenty of very smart folks on here uninterested in backing GW at anything below 8. Lobos thinks that’s because of IEP participation but nobody wants to back him below 24. Why is nobody interested in backing either at a multiple of what they would be if they pitched up and double or more what they can get ante post with a bookmaker. I guess my point is it’s not just about explaining movements in F2F in isolation it’s the whole picture. What the exchange is telling us is nobody is closing their book on GW only on F2F and if both are going GC then why doesn’t anybody want to back IEP at say 21. Do we really think the trainer won’t have anything?

Are we saying that there is absolutely nothing to see here. I 100% agree there’s no definitive decision made but that’s different from there being nothing to see. Can someone smarter than me provide an explanation for the whole picture not just F2F.
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My read is that the only way both FTF and Gaelic go gold cup is if IEP goes ryannair. Willie implied recently he’ll skip chelt, and TBF IEP would only have 28 days between races, after a year off, so unlikely in my book, given willies MO. For all I hope he goes as I backed him at 33s last March 😤😤
 
What's the current word on F2F and Gaelic from the Exchange guys ??
 
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Someone happy enough to put 260 up for Gaelic @ 5.8 on the back side..
 
Now is about the time I look for an EW trixie or Lucky15 made up of horses tp sneak into a place in races that are likely to cut up.

BDA is one I'm trying to wrap my head around here. Travels well, jumps cleanly when in rhythm, less exposed than some, no other entries but does have one in the GN. Is he likely to come here? If the race should cut up 40-1 at 3 places could look big. What am I missing?
 
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