August ‘25 Yankee

[Istabraq]

I can't see them missing the gold cup with Inothewayurthinkin, he's the reigning champion and most likely winner next year (imo), surely he'll go back and defend his title ?

You would have thought that will be the case but unless I've dreamt it there were noises around it being either the Gold Cup or the National and they were favouring the latter.
The fact he wasn't seen after his Gold Cup win tells me that Gold Cup took its' toll, they were all over a National bid leading up to and soon after Cheltenham (wasn't he like 6/1 fav or something stupid ?) but then put him away, I think they know doing both is a massive ask especially now he's rated so high....

 

[Guinness Village]

Will Willie say the same thing about final demand?

 

[Istabraq]

@RoadToCheltenham has been putting some updates out there re plans for a few, if any are relevant to this thread please feel free to throw suggestions this way (anyone)….

 

[Saxon Warrior]

….i think he missed the Festival simply because the 2m 4f Nov Ch was scratched. This is from the Feb Mullins stable tour;

Impaire Et Passe
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, 20-1
There's a good chance he might miss Cheltenham. He would have gone for the two-and-a-half-mile novice chase if it was still there, but he might go to Aintree or Fairyhouse instead. I think Aintree would be my preference for him at this stage.

Spot on, @Eggs

The way I read his interviews was that Impaire Et Passe was the main Novice Chaser he was gutted about having to miss Cheltenham altogether, because the midtrip Grade 1 was removed.

Its the one he was most vocal about on the subject anyway.

Which makes sense as he had already won the midtrip Faugheen Grade 1 at Christmas.

Hes definitely a Ryanair player in my mind, having now missed 2 Cheltenhams since his Ballymore winners.

Don't see him as a 3M2.5F Gold Cup horse.

...and almost all Ryanair winners are Graded 3M Chasers stepping back in trip a bit (rather than 2M Chasers stepping up).

I think thats partly because the dynamics of the breeding of NH horses and numbers going 3M not staying at 2M - makes it certain that there's far more horses, each season, in the 3M+ category races at Graded Chase level than there ever are at the 2M level.

 

[Cheltmass]

You would have thought that will be the case but unless I've dreamt it there were noises around it being either the Gold Cup or the National and they were favouring the latter.
The fact he wasn't seen after his Gold Cup win tells me that Gold Cup took its' toll, they were all over a National bid leading up to and soon after Cheltenham (wasn't he like 6/1 fav or something stupid ?) but then put him away, I think they know doing both is a massive ask especially now he's rated so high....

Racing Post news today has a section saying Gavin Cromwell confirms season plans for Gold Cup Winner, think it’s only available to subscribers at the moment but hopefully available soon

 

[Istabraq]

Racing Post news today has a section saying Gavin Cromwell confirms season plans for Gold Cup Winner, think it’s only available to subscribers at the moment but hopefully available soon

Thanks, i did see that earlier which would definitely mean he warrants consideration, but is 4/1 value ?
Something just tells me not all was right after the race and I'd prefer to see him back before adding him but if there's a strong case made by FJs then happy to include....

 

[Yosser]

Thanks, i did see that earlier which would definitely mean he warrants consideration, but is 4/1 value ?
Something just tells me not all was right after the race and I'd prefer to see him back before adding him but if there's a strong case made by FJs then happy to include....

I think at 4/1, you are right Ista. There are plenty of opportunities for him to get beat as the season goes on. He isn't a rock solid proposition. If he wins all the way to Gold Cup day then so be it but he will still be odds against on the day you would imagine. Plenty of water to go under the bridge at 4/1.

 

[Danman]

I think at 4/1, you are right Ista. There are plenty of opportunities for him to get beat as the season goes on. He isn't a rock solid proposition. If he wins all the way to Gold Cup day then so be it but he will still be odds against on the day you would imagine. Plenty of water to go under the bridge at 4/1.

Yeah, i can definitely see him being beaten before the gold cup and us getting a bigger price.

 

[Istabraq]

I think at 4/1, you are right Ista. There are plenty of opportunities for him to get beat as the season goes on. He isn't a rock solid proposition. If he wins all the way to Gold Cup day then so be it but he will still be odds against on the day you would imagine. Plenty of water to go under the bridge at 4/1.

So if we know he’s heading for the John Durkin and will likely get chinned over 2m 3f he’ll drift as GDC has done the past few seasons, so perhaps he’s one for the December yankee ?
Doesn’t help the August effort though lol….

 

[Yosser]

The way I see it with Willie, is that he will have 5 horses campaigned for the Gold Cup. Galopin Des Champs obviously, though probably now on the downgrade (could still win it though) Lucky Watson, won the BANC, obvious path unless they stretch him out further for a British or Irish national. Granceglare West has obviously claims going back to the Grand National but will have to be tried in the Grade 1s anyway if not good enough then to at least keep his mark down. Gaelic Warrior I thought would have done it last year but was sidelined and who knows if that was the plan anyway and Fact To File. JP has Majborough and Jonbon for the Ryanair and Champion Chase and we know he doesn't mind throwing a few darts at the Gold Cup. Willie was adamant last year but was obviously overruled. I think this year that will be his aim. A year older, that little bit more cruising stamina. People say he didn't get the trip last year. He certainly did get the trip, just not as well as Galopin Des Champs. He is also at this point, the likeliest winner of the John Durkan so to condense all of that. Right now I would say the Gold Cup bet is Fact To File, I think he will be campaigned that way and is the likeliest winner of the JD which will represent a price crash

That's how I see it

Could all be complete bollocks of course trying to second guess Willie

 

[BigChaang]

I think , Team J.P. , will stick to the same plan with fact to file and Inothewayurthinkin ..... I.M.O. !.
Both Runaway winners at the festival this year . In their respective races .
I don't see the need to Change thing's ..
When they were both so Impressive in their races this year.
Doesn't make sense to me .
Only thing is maybe ... Fact to File being the older horse . they might want a crack at the Gold Cup next year .
So possibly they both end up in the Gold cup . Or I.no goes G.N. , but sound's like the Gold cup is the Plan there . at the moment .

 

[Kautostar]

I think fact to file will win the Ryanair again. Until he proves he really stays which I don’t think he does Willie will keep him at the mid trip and do what Allaho did.
Gaelic warrior is the one I really like for the gold cup, he improved massively for the step up in trip and is going to be turning 8yrs old by the gold cup which is perfect. 20/1 is a great price imo

 

[darlojim]

Fact to File is an absolute cert in the Ryanair.

 

[opatcho]

Fact to File is an absolute cert in the Ryanair.

I fairly strong on this aswell.
The drop down in trip was interesting, were they looking at the QMCC given the lack of quality in that division. Doesn’t matter now, given his defeat. Think they’ll stick to middle distance and may find a quick 3 mile somewhere - not sure he’ll come over to Kempton though

 

[somer1]

Fact to File screams at me King George on Boxing Day. Can see him pissing it 3m Kempton

 

[Yosser]

They were apparently laying Gaelic Warrior out for the KG last season before his setback. I agree about F2F being ideal for it and would say that is on the table along with Il Etait Temps. IET I saw somewhere somebody said they weren't sure if he was suited buly the undulations of Cheltenham so a King George bid would be ideal.

My opinion on Fact To File for the GC is because I think Majborough will be trained with the Champion Chase in mind. He still has loads of time on his side to move out in trip and Jonbon will now surely be upped in trip though he necessarily might not even go to Cheltenham. I'm sure Willie will mention all 3 races for Fact To File though in his stable tour and leave us all none the wiser. He will probably run and win the John Durkan, potentially run and win the King George so will probably be favourite for both the Ryanair and Gold Cup and then things will only probably become clear after the Dublin Racing Festival but at that time all prices will have completely crashed for both races. He is a tricky customer to weigh up.

Hopefully Charlie can give us a nudge in the autumn

On the KG, I am going to nibble at 5 each way from September to November hoping a couple end up there. Gaelic Warrior, Caldwell Potter, il Etait Temps, The Jukebox Man and Banbridge

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Fact To Files target will not be dependent on where others run, he smashed up the Ryanair field last season and would do it again, I'm sure.

Only way I can see JP and his crew moving him is if something were to happen to Inothewayurthinkin. The 2m route is not even an option, IMO.

 

[HoldenTheReins]

JP's going to throw more at the CC as he wants to win it. So don't be surprised if Jonbon and Maj both go.

 

[Kautostar]

I can see il etait temps being aimed at the top 2 mile chases to begin with at least after his win at sandown.
I think they’ll stick to 2 miles with majborough for next season.
If I had to guess now where jonbon will end up I’d say he’ll have another crack at the champion chase unless sir gino returns and scares everything away.

 

[Black Dog]

I've had a small play on Jade de Grugy for the Mares Chase at 33/1 with BFSB. Willie kept her over hurdles last season after she had a setback, so I assume fences will be the plan this time and with a 150 OR and built like a scullery maid she will surely be in the mix. Horses she's beaten over hurdles who are shorter in the market are Brighterdaysahead, best priced 6/1,Spindleberry 6/1, Only By Night 8/1, Bioluminescence 20/1 and Fun Fun Fun 20/1. Even if Dinoblue goes again she's unlikely to improve and as a 9yo Mares I wouldn't be touching her at 4/1. In summary, she's got the form,admittedly over hurdles only,the scope and the price is value. A risky Yankee choice I admit, but she hasn't got too many likely targets .