2017 Champion Hurdle

[loveracing]

Also, not one for starting rumours, so genuine question, is Buveur D'air OK? Slight drift on the exchanges, a few bookies have dropped him out 1/2 a point or more too?

Probably due to NJH statement yesterday about him needing softer ground.

 

[jono]

I'm struggling to see the appeal for MTOY's myself even at an eachway bet. I can see the reasoning - a horse who has been second in this race twice (in better renewals) and a Supreme but even at a massive price I'm sceptical.

I know the horse has ran well off long layoffs previously but this is the first time in a long time that Nicky has had the horse without troubles for a full season so far and he really should have picked up a win this season. Heavy ground could be an excuse for his seasonal debut, and then the rain did again hinder his chances in the International Hurdle but getting 8lb from The New One he was easily put aside.

However the Christmas Hurdle in December was where he really had no excuses. A flat speedy track that suits (2/2 and a previous winner of the race) on Good ground and he faded tamely in 4th. I'd be concerned he's well on the downgrade now after his 3 runs this season.

Saying that I was against the horse last year with him being such a keen horse and 2 years off the track and he ran a blinder into second so i'll probably be made to look stupid once again :very_drunk:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm struggling to see the appeal for MTOY's myself even at an eachway bet. I can see the reasoning - a horse who has been second in this race twice (in better renewals) and a Supreme but even at a massive price I'm sceptical.

I know the horse has ran well off long layoffs previously but this is the first time in a long time that Nicky has had the horse without troubles for a full season so far and he really should have picked up a win this season. Heavy ground could be an excuse for his seasonal debut, and then the rain did again hinder his chances in the International Hurdle but getting 8lb from The New One he was easily put aside.

However the Christmas Hurdle in December was where he really had no excuses. A flat speedy track that suits (2/2 and a previous winner of the race) on Good ground and he faded tamely in 4th. I'd be concerned he's well on the downgrade now after his 3 runs this season.

Saying that I was against the horse last year with him being such a keen horse and 2 years off the track and he ran a blinder into second so i'll probably be made to look stupid once again :very_drunk:

TBH you may well be correct, he is certainly priced up as though he has regressed, and on bare form for this season you wouldn't like to argue.

My main angles for backing him, firstly for a horse that has finished runner up in this race twice 50/1 was ridiculous, I'll be surprised if he is even 20/1 come the day. His Cheltenham form is solid without winning and for win purposes you'd hope there would be a more progressive horse come the day, so all in all I am backing him for a place, interestingly he is quite short (IMO) for a place on the exchanges, around 11/2, again though, on the day he probably won't be 11/2 for a place I feel.

The ground has been thoroughly against him, and if anything I feel he probably done himself proud finishing close enough on heavy on his seasonal debut, against 2 horses that clearly relish cut in the ground and giving 2lb away to the winner.

I'll be honest, despite the soft ground the International Hurdle was the most disappointing for me, getting 8lb from TNO should have been enough to beat him, BUT, lets not forget he has finished ahead of TNO at the festival twice before in this same race, and feel it will depend a lot on the ground as to whether he can overturn that form, regardless of weight, I think he'll be spot on for this as opposed to the International they both contested.

The LTO run was disappointing, but simply that come too soon, from his previous run, for him IMO.

I'd happily admit, it has been an underwhelming start to the season, but this break for me, added to the spring time ground at Cheltenham will bring out the best in him, and a place would do me well

 

[jono]

Hendo on BVD'air

"He is perfectly happy on good to soft but if it dries out it goes against him and he would love it soft. If you take it strictly on what he did at Sandown he shouldn’t be favourite for the Champion as he beat Rayvin Black and Irving and they got beaten even further at Wincanton but we just have to do our own thing. We always though he was a Champion Hurdle horse and he has been very good over fences but before Annie Power and Faugheen was ruled out I said to Barry (Geraghty) this horse needs to go back hurdling. We just thought he had a little more to give over hurdles"


You would have to be MENTAL to back him now, before you know the ground conditions? MENTAL. If it is soft, then fair enough, but even then that suits Yanworth too! More-so even?

Who fancies BVD ... ? I've pinned my colours to the Yanworth mast (strictly between the two this is...) ... so let's work out the match bet.... who beats who? BVD or Yan ... in the CH....

I wouldn't be massively worried about the ground with Buveur D'Air. A slight hinderance in that he'd prefer softer ground but it probably wouldn't make me stop placing a bet on him IF I really fancied him. With it being the first day of the festival - odds on to get good to soft ground, probably soft in places? He finished 3rd on the same ground in the Supreme last year. I don't think you can watch the race back and say if the ground was soft he would have won (a more prominent ride the only way he may have finished closer for me) and then he's won at Aintree and his Supreme prep on Good to Soft so can act on the ground. I'd be worried about proper good ground for him purely on how often give and ease in the ground is mentioned for the horse by the trainer but that's never going to happen on the Tuesday.

But yeah I definitely see no reason why you'd get involved now and not on the day. BG's decision on who to ride will clearly effect the market and shorten the price of the chosen horse but not enough to justify making that call now. The makeup of the race means even that won't cause such a shortening of price as I think bookies will be keen to take on ALL horses in the race. Even if VVM or Limini end up in the race with Ruby onboard they're prices won't contract that much. Then you have the likes of PM, BP who will probably lengthen on the day.

Looking into it a little more my view is that Yanworth probably won't improve much on what we've seen. I've seen arguments about the track and pace improving his chance but I'm not too sure. However I think he is the solid yardstick that will run his race to that mark no matter what. Currently he's second highest rated but if Jezki as more likely goes down the Stayers he'll be top rated with an OR164.

So then it comes down to

A. Can the horses he beat at Kempton and Wincanton overturn the deficit (No)

B. Can the rest of the horses match that or beat 164 level at Cheltenham? On ratings most don't have too much to find, Petit Mouchoir only 2lbs for example.

Now it happens that the 2 that I like most out of the field are probably the 2 that have most to find - Limini and Buveur D'Air. It's then a case of me figuring out if I feel they can run to a rating higher than 164 on the day.

Proven form (Yanworth) vs Potential (Limini / B D'air) - i've got 2 weeks to decide!!

 

[Istabraq]

Ground is key for many.
Also, many horses don't relish the damp short Winter days, like us some have a different enthusiasm when the temperature picks up and the days lengthen.
Another point in ground, there's a difference between Winter good ground and Spring good ground, fresh grass provides some bounce and some horses run better for it, Gods Own is probably a good example.
And you have to consider course/experience, they can't tell you but some horses become anxious in the chaos of parade rings amidst a thousand people, some don't like the crowds and noise, others relish it, which is why previous festival experience can be so influencial, MTOY you know will not be inhinited by the occasion so whilst he'll carry none of my money I can see the interest....

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Valid points Jono, certainly come the day, despite my liking for MTOY as a place bet, I will likely side with the potential you have mentioned there in Limini (most likely after Wednesday performance) or Buveur D'air (less likely) for a win bet.

Ground is key for many.
Also, many horses don't relish the damp short Winter days, like us some have a different enthusiasm when the temperature picks up and the days lengthen.
Another point in ground, there's a difference between Winter good ground and Spring good ground, fresh grass provides some bounce and some horses run better for it, Gods Own is probably a good example.
And you have to consider course/experience, they can't tell you but some horses become anxious in the chaos of parade rings amidst a thousand people, some don't like the crowds and noise, others relish it, which is why previous festival experience can be so influencial, MTOY you know will not be inhinited by the occasion so whilst he'll carry none of my money I can see the interest....

I agree, despite the ground being key the general experience on the day will also be massive for some of these horses.

 

[Brital]

Rather than MTOY, I'm struggling to see the appeal of Limini.
She beat AJ in heavy ground, AJ last 4 wins have all come with good in the description of the going, so I'd surmise she doesn't want it too soft. The pace of the race looked fairly sedentary for a lot of the way round, and at the end Limini pulled away by a few lengths.
Come March at Cheltenham I'd expect better ground, much stronger pace and a much bigger field. I don't think you can take much from that race to give you a lot of confidence she is good enough to win a CH.
She's one I'd definitely oppose, but I think WM will send her to the Mares race anyway.

 

[Jonnymac05]

Reading the Racing Post article and its looking like Woillie wants to supplement Limini.

"Its something I'll be discussing with Rich and Susannah Ricci"

Rich will definately want a live contender in this so im guessing it wont be a shock if she gets supplemented and that 7lbs allowance will be massive.
I know its only 1st run since last year but for a rusty non race fit horse she was so so impressive and seems to have come on leaps and bounds.
Its also the same route that Annie took before being supplemented. I for one will not be surprised to see her name in the entries before March 8th

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

A main feature of this race now, for me, is that it's very ordinary, so horses that can't win a champion hurdle are now in the reckoning, it has to be looked at in a different way to the years where superstar horses turn up. For my betting purposes this means that a horse like Limini comes into the reckoning as a contender, then when you take account of her receiving half a stone from a fairly ordinary bunch it starts to make sense that they would supplement her. In a year where the top rated 2m hurdlers lined up it would probably seem ridiculous, but that's not what's going to happen, so the race needs to be looked at for what it is, and if connections as shrewd as the Mullins/Ricci ones take this route I think it is worthy of consideration

 

[Jonnymac05]

A main feature of this race now, for me, is that it's very ordinary, so horses that can't win a champion hurdle are now in the reckoning, it has to be looked at in a different way to the years where superstar horses turn up. For my betting purposes this means that a horse like Limini comes into the reckoning as a contender, then when you take account of her receiving half a stone from a fairly ordinary bunch it starts to make sense that they would supplement her. In a year where the top rated 2m hurdlers lined up it would probably seem ridiculous, but that's not what's going to happen, so the race needs to be looked at for what it is, and if connections as shrewd as the Mullins/Ricci ones take this route I think it is worthy of consideration

Agreed MMG, no chance they supplement her if they dont feel she has a ligitimate chance. I think Limini being supplemented is a tip on its own.

 

[Brital]

Agreed MMG, no chance they supplement her if they dont feel she has a ligitimate chance. I think Limini being supplemented is a tip on its own.

Or they don't have a better option? Mullins doesn't have the strength in depth of previous years.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

It solves a problem for Ricci and co but I don't see her being anywhere near good enough to win a champion hurdle, even one as poor as this.

 

[jono]

Rich Ricci this morning (for what it's worth...)

VVM - Mares Hurdle the natural race for VVM & a run over fences at Cheltenham highly unlikely but no final decision made.

Limini - Supplementing for the Champion Hurdle a serious option but yet to be discussed in detail

 

[ryanh97]

Barry facing a race against time to be back for festival

 

[BigChaang]

Yeah , agree with that ryanh97, afriend of mine broke some ribs and punctured his lung , took about 4 months to recover fully , although he 's older . but i know these jock's are super tough , so let's hope bazza's back in time.!.

 

[jono]

Timeform's Simon Rowlands view on Yanworth & Limini:

Yanworth failed to impress all in a workmanlike success in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on the same day, but he did so in a smart time (as had been the case when he won the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton) and under speed-favouring conditions unlikely to have played to his strengths: at least the Champion Hurdle looks like being a true test.

That last comment should have heightened relevance if connections of Limini choose to go for that race rather than softer alternatives. The mare’s listed win at Punchestown on 22 February came in a time far faster than the other two 20f hurdle races on the card and with a particularly swift sectional from the last.

This defeat of the highly able Apple’s Jade was another performance that was every bit as good as it appeared when subjected to time analysis.

Limini would get a 7-lb sex allowance if she lined up in the Champion Hurdle, and the importance of that can be seen by her standing in the best time performances in various categories over the last six months. Go on: roll those big, fluffy, pink and green dice.

Some of the more appealing bets with the Cheltenham Festival in mind have been and gone already (Thistlecrack was previously put up as a lay for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on account of times), but a non-runner/no bet play on Limini for the Champion Hurdle still appeals.

 

[Old Vic]

They couldn't could they ?


Johnny Ward‏@Ui_Maine 28m
28 minutes ago


Annie Power riding out Faugheen is not. Wpm

 

[ComplyOrDie]

They couldn't could they ?


Johnny Ward‏@Ui_Maine 28m
28 minutes ago


Annie Power riding out Faugheen is not. Wpm

Willie said Punchestown is the plan with her, but you just never know with him!

 

[doctorwu]

Can anybody confirm that tombstone will be supplemented for this race?
TIA

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Can anybody confirm that tombstone will be supplemented for this race?
TIA

Gordon Elliott has proposed to connections that they supplement Tombstone for the CH, but he's been drifting with bookmakers and on the exchanges today, whether that has anything to do with the likely inclusion of Limini (as a couple of others have also drifted in the market too) I have no idea.