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Supreme Novices 2017

Just seen Charli Parcs for the first time now... assuming from the suggestion on here that he'll miss Cheltenham means Hendo hasn't confirmed anything?

Incredibly disappointed. I had hoped that he would bolt up. He was responding to being ridden and Master Blueyes may have improved, but based on their first run against each other, you'd have to think he wasn't 100%?

Either way, it isn't a positive. 14/1 NRNB with Sky now... I'd probably still take that if I wasn't already on at 7 and 8s. :)

***edit - Hendo has said Chelt isn't off the agenda - I won't "tear up" my bets for him in this just yet...

Henderson also had news of Charli Parcs, who went into the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle as a leading contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, but had been under pressure before seemingly coming back into it, only to fall two out.

He said: "He is fine. He won't go to Newbury on Friday, we do these things (make entries) if they get loose at the start.

"To be honest, I need to talk to Barry. It didn't look like things were going very clever, but Noel (Fehily) said first time he rode him at Kempton he was a bit the same. As soon as he saw daylight off he went when he came off that bend.

"He picked up again having been five or six lengths down and came into the second-last like a bullet.

"We will talk to JP and discuss plans but it's (Cheltenham) is still very possible."
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Melon has settled again on the exchanges? Movewiththetimes shortening (looks like as a result of CP falling) ...
 
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'He picked up again having been five or six lengths down and came into the second last like a bullet'

Some might suggest that isn't the most accurate statement ever and one made through rose-tinted. Either way the horse has taken a step backwards from his last run and if I was Henderson that's what I would be thinking about.

When you build a horse up, and Henderson was a big part of that, it is natural to want to cling to that original opinion. Perhaps he just isn't the second coming?
 
Almost posted the same kb. They seemed to miss the 'hic' from the middle of Nicky's quote there. Must have interviewed him after racing :very_drunk:
 
:highly_amused: .....like a bullet?!

Originally I thought he may have won but having watched it again a couple of times I think he'd struggled to have beaten MB. I'd prefer them going to Aintree and giving him time to get over what looked a fairly heavy fall.
 
I know it's hard to be dogmatic in these circumstances, but I'd be very confident MB would have won myself. Was travelling like a dream and found loads after the last. Powered away.
 
Jonnymac05 said:
Call me crazy but i have talked myself into Lets Dance at 14s. Now before you do call me crazy heres my logic, Ricci doesnt really have a fancied runner (Presuming Senewalk is out) and this is his race that he has dominated in for a few years(except Altiors performance) but he has always had fancied runners in it. and this year he doesnt except Lets Dance.
Now i know there are other targets (mares wont be one now and cant see her running in the neptune) So logically it will be here or AB and at 14s willing to take a non risk bet if she doesnt turn up here.

Ok you can now call me crazy :encouragement:
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Jonny, actually I feel you may be on to something, Let's Dance is about the only horse out of the Irish lot that form has been standing up to scrutiny.

Forge Meadow, the horse that beat Joey Sasa (Cilaos Emery form), Any Second Now (Crack Mome form) & Peace News (Saturnas form) at Naas yesterday was trounced by Shattered Love, who in turn was slammed by Let's Dance and slightly less so by Airlie Beach, so a definite case can be made for both, I certainly wouldn't want to run them against each other in the Mares' Novice Hurdle, despite having different owners, so a shot at this race wouldn't be out of the question.

Many so called 'experts' as well as some top trainers have said you don't just need a speed horse for the Supreme, you need a staying type too, and Let's Dance definitely stays having won a Grade 3 & Grade 2 over 2m 4f, my only concern with her would be her finishing speed, as despite needing to stay well you also need a turn of foot, does she have that over 2m, that is the question for me.
 
kinloch brae said:
'He picked up again having been five or six lengths down and came into the second last like a bullet'

Some might suggest that isn't the most accurate statement ever and one made through rose-tinted. Either way the horse has taken a step backwards from his last run and if I was Henderson that's what I would be thinking about.

When you build a horse up, and Henderson was a big part of that, it is natural to want to cling to that original opinion. Perhaps he just isn't the second coming?
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Yeah, I definitely think Nicky had been on the juice. Henderson has now had 3 supposed good things blow, think because he made comparisons with Altior we were expecting big things, and because of last years winner and third that he trained we, a bit like with Mullins and Ricci, expect them to have the winner.

So far we have gone through Senewalk, Jenkins, Lough Derg Spirit, Cilaos Emery (was 2nd fav at one point), Crack Mome & Charli Parcs, yet, myself included, have pretty much ignored Moon Racer / Ballyandy. I do feel Ballyandy would be more likely to turn that form around, and of course we still have the very well touted Melon to be a potential superstar or blow completely. I think Neon Wolf & Finian's Oscar likely go down the Neptune route so haven't included them in this.
 
Assuming M.Racer goes to the Ch.hdle ., I'm wondering if this will be a re run of the betfair hdl,,, between Ballyandy & movewiththetimes ?,
I don't think Melon will cut the mustard myself , but i'd give bunk off early a chance.
 
Well Melon is definitely alive and looking well at the press day at Mullins yard. Some amazing pictures and videos from it on social media.
 
Not just looking well, but Mullins has suggested Ruby gets the ride almost definitely, they must think something of the horse to not consider Bunk Off Early then.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Jonny, actually I feel you may be on to something, Let's Dance is about the only horse out of the Irish lot that form has been standing up to scrutiny.

Forge Meadow, the horse that beat Joey Sasa (Cilaos Emery form), Any Second Now (Crack Mome form) & Peace News (Saturnas form) at Naas yesterday was trounced by Shattered Love, who in turn was slammed by Let's Dance and slightly less so by Airlie Beach, so a definite case can be made for both, I certainly wouldn't want to run them against each other in the Mares' Novice Hurdle, despite having different owners, so a shot at this race wouldn't be out of the question.

Many so called 'experts' as well as some top trainers have said you don't just need a speed horse for the Supreme, you need a staying type too, and Let's Dance definitely stays having won a Grade 3 & Grade 2 over 2m 4f, my only concern with her would be her finishing speed, as despite needing to stay well you also need a turn of foot, does she have that over 2m, that is the question for me.
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I take back what I said haha, Mullins has said he expects Airlie Beach & Let's Dance to take each other on.
 
Gutted about this. Have a good few quid on Airlie Beach. Think its tough to split these two.

Any good links for where you can see more info from the day? Much appreciated
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Gutted about this. Have a good few quid on Airlie Beach. Think its tough to split these two.

Any good links for where you can see more info from the day? Much appreciated
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I don't unfortunately.

All of the info I get is through Twitter, following people at his yard currently during the interviews.
 
A positive update on Melon - looks like my contact was wrong on this occasion.
 
Willie's full quote on Melon:

He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Willie's full quote on Melon:

He’s a fine, strong, tall horse with plenty of ability, but is one that lacks experience. We are likely to have plenty of runners in the race including Bunk Off Early who has Grade 1 form, but based on homework, I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby to ride Melon. He has only had one run over hurdles, though we did train Fiveforthree to win the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle on just his second start over hurdles, so we’ve done it before albeit not in the Supreme. He has plenty of jumping experience at home and he seems a natural jumper too. I wouldn’t be worried about his lack of experience from a mental perspective either.
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That's about as strong a piece on his chances as I have seen to date. Purely based on homework then it seems Melon walks all over the rest of them. He must be good, surely.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
That's about as strong a piece on his chances as I have seen to date. Purely based on homework then it seems Melon walks all over the rest of them. He must be good, surely.
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If this is the case and ruby wants to ride Melon then there will be no chance that Lets Dance goes here if Ruby doesn't ride her.
And I would be shocked if its AB v LD in Mares Novice. Willie has always split up his classy horses. Will be a waste of Novice season if she doesn't run in 1 of the 2 novice race she's entered for.
 
LD 0% for this race?

Sporting Life seems to have the best right up that I've seen from today ...

"SKY BET SUPREME TEAM

We'll probably have four or five runners. MELON, BUNK OFF EARLY, CRACK MOME, CILAOS EMERY - those four, anyway."
 
Suppose Willie is well represented in the Supreme and is likely to have Augusta Kate and Penhill for the AB. So it looks like Neptune or Mares Novice for Let's Dance. And it sounds like he is pretty confident about Bacardys in the former. Which makes the Mares Novice make the most sense I suppose.
 
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