2025 Novice Chasers

[Guinness Village]

Just loving Firefox for arkle. He’s much more of a chaser than ballyburn.

 

[charlie]

Just loving Firefox for arkle. He’s much more of a chaser than ballyburn.

Re Ballyburn, do you mean Firefox is much more of an Arkle type? I agree, but you'd be hard pushed to find many horses bred better for chasing than Ballyburn, but his future lies over much further IMO.

Firefox is interesting but he's 8/1 already ffs. Gordon name checking the race must be whats done it because you wouldn't look at his exploits over hurdles and think he should be a single figure price would you? Kudos though if you are on at bigger prices!

It's nice to know they are thinking Arkle, but I'd rather chance something at a bigger price that I know has more ability than Firefox.

Take IEP for example. He's 10/1 for an Arkle. Firefox couldn't crack Slade Steel or Mystical Power over 2m whereas IEP ran 3L up State Mans arse in a G1. If they both improved for a fence IEP would wallop Firefox out of sight IMO.

Obviously, the elephant in the room is we don't know what is going to go where yet. I take the view that Ballyburn is a false fav and I make that case in my diary if you want to read more.

 

[Craigy14]

Re Ballyburn, do you mean Firefox is much more of an Arkle type? I agree, but you'd be hard pushed to find many horses bred better for chasing than Ballyburn, but his future lies over much further IMO.

Firefox is interesting but he's 8/1 already ffs. Gordon name checking the race must be whats done it because you wouldn't look at his exploits over hurdles and think he should be a single figure price would you? Kudos though if you are on at bigger prices!

It's nice to know they are thinking Arkle, but I'd rather chance something at a bigger price that I know has more ability than Firefox.

Take IEP for example. He's 10/1 for an Arkle. Firefox couldn't crack Slade Steel or Mystical Power over 2m whereas IEP ran 3L up State Mans arse in a G1. If they both improved for a fence IEP would wallop Firefox out of sight IMO.

Obviously, the elephant in the room is we don't know what is going to go where yet. I take the view that Ballyburn is a false fav and I make that case in my diary if you want to read more.

Think Firefox has always been single figures Charlie, awful price imo. Slade Steel and Impaire Et Passé by far better prices for me at this stage. I actually hope Slade Steel is beaten and I’ll go back in, provided they stick to 2m and the manner of the defeat of course, as we all know HDB horses can be beaten through the season and he peaks them cherry ripe for Cheltenham.

 

[Yosser]

Think Firefox has always been single figures Charlie, awful price imo. Slade Steel and Impaire Et Passé by far better prices for me at this stage. I actually hope Slade Steel is beaten and I’ll go back in, provided they stick to 2m and the manner of the defeat of course, as we all know HDB horses can be beaten through the season and he peaks them cherry ripe for Cheltenham.

I got 12/1 last March. I assume that was the ceiling price for him. It's still terrible but wasn't ever likely to grow. That said, i also took 12/1 for Jonbon for the Ryanair and was crowing to my mate who doesn't do antepost telling him how he would be scrambling around on the day looking for crappy doubles to get Jonbon onside. Egg on face :excitement:

Still not giving up on it though. I am going to hold on to it.

 

[Odin]

I got 12/1 last March. I assume that was the ceiling price for him. It's still terrible but wasn't ever likely to grow. That said, i also took 12/1 for Jonbon for the Ryanair and was crowing to my mate who doesn't do antepost telling him how he would be scrambling around on the day looking for crappy doubles to get Jonbon onside. Egg on face :excitement:

Still not giving up on it though. I am going to hold on to it.

14s was available. I don't necessarily think it is/was a brilliant price, but he's the only one of the likelier types who is absolutely guraranteed to be a 2m chaser based on the way he ran and his breeding, so it wasn't a bad price. I actually don't think 8s is a stinker either but I would be looking at IEP/Slade Steel over it.

We can form an opinion on Ballyburn/IEP but neither is guaranteed for multiple reasons. Slade Steel's breeding isn't that of a chaser, Sir Gino stays hurdling surely, Irish Point is a lesser version of Ballyburn/IEP (can do 2m or 3m), Majborough too year, Mystical Power stays hurdling, Mirazur West is 16s with nothing like the profile of Firefox, It's For Me has been off for half a year and then we are at 25/1+

 

[luisgarciaisgod]

Firefox couldn't crack Slade Steel or Mystical Power over 2m whereas IEP ran 3L up State Mans arse in a G1.

Probably being pedantic but Firefox finished 5l ahead of Slade Steel at Punchestown, if it's not a bog like it was in the Supreme I'd generally fancy him to finish ahead of Slade Steel over the Arkle trip.

 

[charlie]

Probably being pedantic but Firefox finished 5l ahead of Slade Steel at Punchestown, if it's not a bog like it was in the Supreme I'd generally fancy him to finish ahead of Slade Steel over the Arkle trip.

Yeh thats fair although results post cheltenham have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

[Lobos]

Said it before....Slade Steel is a stand out price for the BANC IMO. Won the Supreme in testing ground like a stayer, got back up when he looked beat. Won the best Novice Hurdle race of last season at Navan over 2 1/2 on deep heavy ground staying on like a slogger at the death. Would definitely have gone for the Gallagher had it not been for Ballyburn going that way. For me, based on his Hurdle season he's not an Arkle horse. Henry does tend to send his best Hurdlers down the BANC route these days and SS was by far the best of his last year. If he's confirmed going to the BANC he'd be near fav and not the current 25's.

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Said it before....Slade Steel is a stand out price for the BANC IMO. Won the Supreme in testing ground like a stayer, got back up when he looked beat. Won the best Novice Hurdle race of last season at Navan over 2 1/2 on deep heavy ground staying on like a slogger at the death. Would definitely have gone for the Gallagher had it not been for Ballyburn going that way. For me, based on his Hurdle season he's not an Arkle horse. Henry does tend to send his best Hurdlers down the BANC route these days and SS was by far the best of his last year. If he's confirmed going to the BANC he'd be near fav and not the current 25's.

He will also likely try to avoid Ballybun…poss double opportunity

I agree def one for the list long as ur happy with risk he could go either race

I’ve added him week or so ago

 

[Kautostar]

Said it before....Slade Steel is a stand out price for the BANC IMO. Won the Supreme in testing ground like a stayer, got back up when he looked beat. Won the best Novice Hurdle race of last season at Navan over 2 1/2 on deep heavy ground staying on like a slogger at the death. Would definitely have gone for the Gallagher had it not been for Ballyburn going that way. For me, based on his Hurdle season he's not an Arkle horse. Henry does tend to send his best Hurdlers down the BANC route these days and SS was by far the best of his last year. If he's confirmed going to the BANC he'd be near fav and not the current 25's.

Henry also has Inthepocket possibly back from injury and Gordon has Irish point (robcour) maybe going chasing as they’re still undecided. Then there’s whether connections decide to duck Ballyburn again. Plenty of moving parts going on here!

 

[JackieMoon33]

Said it before....Slade Steel is a stand out price for the BANC IMO. Won the Supreme in testing ground like a stayer, got back up when he looked beat. Won the best Novice Hurdle race of last season at Navan over 2 1/2 on deep heavy ground staying on like a slogger at the death. Would definitely have gone for the Gallagher had it not been for Ballyburn going that way. For me, based on his Hurdle season he's not an Arkle horse. Henry does tend to send his best Hurdlers down the BANC route these days and SS was by far the best of his last year. If he's confirmed going to the BANC he'd be near fav and not the current 25's.

I’d say that Henry sends his AB horses to the BANC, rather than his ‘best’ hurdlers. The better horses he’s had in the shorter novice hurdles have gone elsewhere. Henry, historically only really had stayers in the yard but now he’s being backed more, he’s also getting sharper types too.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Said it before....Slade Steel is a stand out price for the BANC IMO. Won the Supreme in testing ground like a stayer, got back up when he looked beat. Won the best Novice Hurdle race of last season at Navan over 2 1/2 on deep heavy ground staying on like a slogger at the death. Would definitely have gone for the Gallagher had it not been for Ballyburn going that way. For me, based on his Hurdle season he's not an Arkle horse. Henry does tend to send his best Hurdlers down the BANC route these days and SS was by far the best of his last year. If he's confirmed going to the BANC he'd be near fav and not the current 25's.

I'm not convinced he needs stepping up in trip just yet. I think the stiff finish of Cheltenham suits him over 2m. He's sharp enough, that's for sure and I'd expect him to uphold the form against Firefox (assuming both take to fences equally as well) at the track. You were probably onto something when you said the Turners for him, I think that is probably his ideal trip, but not the 3m of the BANC. Not for me, at least.

As a Supreme winner I'm fully expecting him to line up in the Arkle (again, assuming he takes to fences), Ballyburn or no Ballyburn.

Henry is one of the masters of improving a horse for a fence, but despite all of the above, something in the back of my mind (mostly on his breeding) tells me Slade Steel may just be a better hurdler than a chaser anyway.

 

[charlie]

Said it before....Slade Steel is a stand out price for the BANC IMO. Won the Supreme in testing ground like a stayer, got back up when he looked beat. Won the best Novice Hurdle race of last season at Navan over 2 1/2 on deep heavy ground staying on like a slogger at the death. Would definitely have gone for the Gallagher had it not been for Ballyburn going that way. For me, based on his Hurdle season he's not an Arkle horse. Henry does tend to send his best Hurdlers down the BANC route these days and SS was by far the best of his last year. If he's confirmed going to the BANC he'd be near fav and not the current 25's.

I strongly disagree. HDB loves a 2 mile chaser. In the last 10 years he's sent 13 horses down the Arkle route winning the race once. In the same timeframe he's sent 5 to the BANC, 3 of which competed in the previous year's AB (the other two were more obvious stayers), so thats red flag number one and its a big one. Yes, Slade Steel won a PTP but the reason he was relatively cheap was because his breeding isn't standout. It's obviously not an exact science but thats red flag number two. Pretty much every time HDB was interviewed last year pre and post race he talked about SS having pace and not being slow, which is red flag number 3. In addition, how many Supreme winners have targeted the BANC the following year? Zero, whereas the Supreme to Arkle is a more well trodden path, which is red flag number 4. Also, and this is a point unrelated to trip, is it was not a particularly good supreme. It was the worst RPR in a decade by some way and it was a slow ish time, so you'd have to question how good SS actually is regardless of whether he ends up over 2m or 3m, which is red flag number 5. No Turners helps you and as you rightly say, he would have gone Gallaghers if it weren't for Ballyburn, but, he went Supreme not AB and 60% of HDB runners in the BANC competed in the AB. After the Supreme when HDB was questioned on trip he said 'he's a classy horse who has loads of pace...(someone interrupts him)......loads of pace and I actually think he'll be better on nicer ground'. Its extremely difficult IMO to look at those comments and all those collective red flags and think SS is stand out price for BANC, its just seems extremely unlikely doesn't it.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I strongly disagree. HDB loves a 2 mile chaser. In the last 10 years he's sent 13 horses down the Arkle route winning the race once. In the same timeframe he's sent 5 to the BANC, 3 of which competed in the previous year's AB (the other two were more obvious stayers), so thats red flag number one and its a big one. Yes, Slade Steel won a PTP but the reason he was relatively cheap was because his breeding isn't standout. It's obviously not an exact science but thats red flag number two. Pretty much every time HDB was interviewed last year pre and post race he talked about SS having pace and not being slow, which is red flag number 3. In addition, how many Supreme winners have targeted the BANC the following year? Zero, whereas the Supreme to Arkle is a more well trodden path, which is red flag number 4. Also, and this is a point unrelated to trip, is it was not a particularly good supreme. It was the worst RPR in a decade by some way and it was a slow ish time, so you'd have to question how good SS actually is regardless of whether he ends up over 2m or 3m, which is red flag number 5. No Turners helps you and as you rightly say, he would have gone Gallaghers if it weren't for Ballyburn, but, he went Supreme not AB and 60% of HDB runners in the BANC competed in the AB. After the Supreme when HDB was questioned on trip he said 'he's a classy horse who has loads of pace...(someone interrupts him)......loads of pace and I actually think he'll be better on nicer ground'. Its extremely difficult IMO to look at those comments and all those collective red flags and think SS is stand out price for BANC, its just seems extremely unlikely doesn't it.

Lobos could start a bunting business with all those red flags.

 

[charlie]

Lobos could start a bunting business with all those red flags.

HAHAHAHA :boxing:

 

[Lobos]

Take a look at that Navan race he won over 2 1/2 miles on deep ground especially the horses he beat and the way that he beat them. That race just screams.......... STAYER!!!!!!! Easily the best Novice Hurdle race of last season as well producing no less than 3 Festival winners. If only we had a Trixie on them............ hindsight eh ??

 

[DenmanSacre]

Take a look at that Navan race he won over 2 1/2 miles on deep ground especially the horses he beat and the way that he beat them. That race just screams.......... STAYER!!!!!!! Easily the best Novice Hurdle race of last season as well producing no less than 3 Festival winners. If only we had a Trixie on them............ hindsight eh ??

You're forgetting the DRF 2m novice - Ballyburn, Slade Steel and Absurde. Slightly better in quality than that Navan race...

 

[Yosser]

Last season was bad ground basically all season including Cheltenham. There are going to be a lot of improvers who had big reputations that flattered to deceive on slow ground. I have my eye on Mirazur West, Tullyhill, Jeriko Du Reponet, Inthewaterside, Shanagh Bob, Croke Park, An Tobar, Found A Fifty, Crambo, Cantico, Joystick, Storm Heart, Daddy Long Legs and Down Memory Lane all have their own separate page as a watchlist for this particular genre.

 

[Lobos]

You're forgetting the DRF 2m novice - Ballyburn, Slade Steel and Absurde. Slightly better in quality than that Navan race...

Yeah, good point. Just as good. My point is he beat the Albert winner Stellar Story in that Navan race and the Martin Pipe winner Better Days Ahead both of which are proven Stayers. Slade Steel outstayed both of them in deep ground in a hurricane. Both of those are ahead of him in the betting for the BANC. Can't believe you can still get 33/1 about Slade Steel.

Slade Steel was beaten for pace by Ballyburn at Leopardstown and again beaten for pace and just plugged on at one pace against Mystical Power at Punchestown. He looked as though he'd be beaten for toe by MP in the Supreme until the Hill and his stamina kicked in again on the run in .

 

[Quevega]

Yeah, good point. Just as good. My point is he beat the Albert winner Stellar Story in that Navan race and the Martin Pipe winner Better Days Ahead both of which are proven Stayers. Slade Steel outstayed both of them in deep ground in a hurricane. Both of those are ahead of him in the betting for the BANC. Can't believe you can still get 33/1 about Slade Steel.

Slade Steel was beaten for pace by Ballyburn at Leopardstown and again beaten for pace and just plugged on at one pace against Mystical Power at Punchestown. He looked as though he'd be beaten for toe by MP in the Supreme until the Hill and his stamina kicked in again on the run in .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7Tcggo45TQ

Just saying :highly_amused::love_heart: