2023 Novice Chasers

[Carnage at Taunton]

Can't have him in a Turners but 25/1 Arkle is tooooooo big.

Yes it is too big.
Hes just finished 2nd in the deepest arkle race we’ve had.
The field in March won’t be much better.
Definitely worth the risk imo.

 

[AaronLad]

If I'd not already backed him I'd take the 25's Ew. Worth the risk especially after Jonbons indifferent run and Appreciate it probably jumping ship . Can't trust Dysart and Saint Roi maybe isn't good enough. El Fabiolo looks solid but I could easily see Banbridge running into a place and it only takes one poor jump in an Arkle and all of a sudden he could have a winning opportunity.

If an indifferent run is running the quickest kingmaker (at warwick) ever (it's not the only one to be run on good ground), what's he going to be like when it's not an indifferent run?
The kingmaker changed to 2miles from 2m4f in 1996, and was switched to february the same year.
This forum is going to go into meltdown when he's given a 160+ rpr

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

If an indifferent run is running the quickest kingmaker (at warwick) ever (it's not the only one to be run on good ground), what's he going to be like when it's not an indifferent run?
The kingmaker changed to 2miles from 2m4f in 1996, and was switched to february the same year.
This forum is going to go into meltdown when he's given a 160+ rpr

Blimey, I did think they were shifting, but did not realise that!!

Personally think that the way the race went with Skelton’s ride, has caused confusion and resulted in contrasting opinions.

 

[Odin]

If an indifferent run is running the quickest kingmaker (at warwick) ever (it's not the only one to be run on good ground), what's he going to be like when it's not an indifferent run?
The kingmaker changed to 2miles from 2m4f in 1996, and was switched to february the same year.
This forum is going to go into meltdown when he's given a 160+ rpr

I understand you're much better than me with times so I'm not gonna debate any of that side of things, but if jonbon is given a 160+ performance for that it suggests that racing post think Calico has ran approximately 1 stone better than previously in his life. That's just a ludicrous suggestion.

Remember the RPRs are initially anchored around finding a horse that the analyst believes has run to form. It's absolutely more likely that in a two runner race (regardless of time), the horse that is more likely to have run to form is the lower rated horse - when they finish close-ish - as the better rated horse doesn't need to do more than that to win and like Saturday isn't normally ridden out to the line to do so.

If you say that Calico has run slightly better than last time I'd be ok with that - call it 140 for ease. Jonbon 10lbs better on pure form/weight and then up to 5lb upgrade for being taken by surprise but getting back on top comfortably? So somewhere in the region of 151-156, would be my guess. Doesn't mean he can't run to 160+ but there's no way that performance was worthy of it or can't be trusted to be worthy of it (whether I'm proven right or wrong later in the season)

 

[AaronLad]

Blimey, I did think they were shifting, but did not realise that!!

Personally think that the way the race went with Skelton’s ride, has caused confusion and resulted in contrasting opinions.

Peope will say it was the ground, it was quickest it's ever been blah, blah , blah.
it was still the only race on saturdays warwick card to go faster than standard, where in contrast 5/7 races at newbury were run faster than standard.
It's an impressive performance from both horses.

 

[AaronLad]

I understand you're much better than me with times so I'm not gonna debate any of that side of things, but if jonbon is given a 160+ performance for that it suggests that racing post think Calico has ran approximately 1 stone better than previously in his life. That's just a ludicrous suggestion.

Remember the RPRs are initially anchored around finding a horse that the analyst believes has run to form. It's absolutely more likely that in a two runner race (regardless of time), the horse that is more likely to have run to form is the lower rated horse - when they finish close-ish - as the better rated horse doesn't need to do more than that to win and like Saturday isn't normally ridden out to the line to do so.

If you say that Calico has run slightly better than last time I'd be ok with that - call it 140 for ease. Jonbon 10lbs better on pure form/weight and then up to 5lb upgrade for being taken by surprise but getting back on top comfortably? So somewhere in the region of 151-156, would be my guess. Doesn't mean he can't run to 160+ but there's no way that performance was worthy of it or can't be trusted to be worthy of it (whether I'm proven right or wrong later in the season)

Sorry odin but i totally disagree with you on this.
As i've pointed out in my post yesterday i feel the 137 rpr he was given lto is low.
It was a fast time then at southwell. ok he beat cows but 4 horses rated all in mid 120's were smashed a minimum of 40 lengths that day, should be higher imo.
so cheekpieces, what do they do?
well for some horses they do nothing but annoy them, but for some it just stops them getting distracted at important times in a race, allows them to concentrate their mind on the job, run faster, jump better. all things they have clearly done for calico in his last 2 run. you will be proven wrong, i'm not saying Jonbons a shoo-in to beat el fab but if he is beaten it'll be the quickest arkle we have ever seen. (as long as it's good to soft)

 

[charlie]

I understand you're much better than me with times so I'm not gonna debate any of that side of things, but if jonbon is given a 160+ performance for that it suggests that racing post think Calico has ran approximately 1 stone better than previously in his life. That's just a ludicrous suggestion.

Remember the RPRs are initially anchored around finding a horse that the analyst believes has run to form. It's absolutely more likely that in a two runner race (regardless of time), the horse that is more likely to have run to form is the lower rated horse - when they finish close-ish - as the better rated horse doesn't need to do more than that to win and like Saturday isn't normally ridden out to the line to do so.

If you say that Calico has run slightly better than last time I'd be ok with that - call it 140 for ease. Jonbon 10lbs better on pure form/weight and then up to 5lb upgrade for being taken by surprise but getting back on top comfortably? So somewhere in the region of 151-156, would be my guess. Doesn't mean he can't run to 160+ but there's no way that performance was worthy of it or can't be trusted to be worthy of it (whether I'm proven right or wrong later in the season)

Great post Odin, spot on IMO.

 

[AaronLad]

Great post Odin, spot on IMO.

if that's spot on charlie, can you explain calico's 137 rpr at southwell to me?
because using exactly the same principles it should be minimum 141

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Sorry odin but i totally disagree with you on this.
As i've pointed out in my post yesterday i feel the 137 rpr he was given lto is low.
It was a fast time then at southwell. ok he beat cows but 4 horses rated all in mid 120's were smashed a minimum of 40 lengths that day, should be higher imo.
so cheekpieces, what do they do?
well for some horses they do nothing but annoy them, but for some it just stops them getting distracted at important times in a race, allows them to concentrate their mind on the job, run faster, jump better. all things they have clearly done for calico in his last 2 run. you will be proven wrong, i'm not saying Jonbons a shoo-in to beat el fab but if he is beaten it'll be the quickest arkle we have ever seen. (as long as it's good to soft)

You are clearly doing some work here, and I find it all very interesting.
Food for thought at the very least.
Cheers AL.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

One could certainly think that the way HS rode Calico, that they knew he’s better than his rating.
Im not one for relying on ratings to part with money, but after reading AL’s posts, I am intrigued to find out what these two are rated at now.

 

[AaronLad]

One could certainly think that the way HS rode Calico, that they knew he’s better than his rating.
Im not one for relying on ratings to part with money, but after reading AL’s posts, I am intrigued to find out what these two are rated at now.

I think the fact they ran him in the kingmaker just 13 days after his last run would also suggest they quite like him and wanted to see how good he was with cheekpieces.
What the handicapper does with him i dont know, but if he gives him any less than 6lb, i'd be absolutely smashing him for the grand annual, absolutely smashing him.

 

[charlie]

if that's spot on charlie, can you explain calico's 137 rpr at southwell to me?
because using exactly the same principles it should be minimum 141

No. Debating a 4 point Southwell RPR differential brings zero value to the forum. You've made your case, Odin countered well. Enough time has been spent talking about Calico, move on.

 

[AaronLad]

No. Debating a 4 point Southwell RPR differential brings zero value to the forum. You've made your case, Odin countered well. Enough time has been spent talking about Calico, move on.

who do you think you are to tell me what i can talk about? are you Kevloaf ?
because you can't answer something? i cant talk about it.
i said 141 minimum.

He did counter it well, but wasn't spot on imo. but was in yours.
when i ask you to explain a blatantly low rpr for a horse who he is questioning the ability of you get like that.
I'd rather you ignore me. than tell me to shut up.

this is a cheltenham festival forum, and you want me to stop talking about a horse who has a great shout at winning a race there?

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

No. Debating a 4 point Southwell RPR differential brings zero value to the forum. You've made your case, Odin countered well. Enough time has been spent talking about Calico, move on.

I found it interesting and it does add to the Arkle discussion, form etc.
Whether one agrees or not is another matter, but definitely worthy of discussion, especially when someone has obviously spent some time on this, trying to add perspective and being helpful.

 

[Outlaw]

AaronLad absolutely no need to be swearing at folk. We all have differences & get passionate but let’s not resort to that….

(notice you’ve since delated it but the above still stands)

 

[charlie]

who do you think you are to tell me what i can talk about? are you Kevloaf ?
because you can't answer something? i cant talk about it.
i said 141 minimum.

He did counter it well, but wasn't spot on imo. but was in yours.
when i ask you to explain a blatantly low rpr for a horse who he is questioning the ability of you get like that.
I'd rather you ignore me. than tell me to shut up.

this is a cheltenham festival forum, and you want me to stop talking about a horse who has a great shout at winning a race there?

I'd love to be Kev tbf :highly_amused:

Debating how much Calico may have improved is important to give the Jonbon run context and I appreciate, as others have, that you've gone into excellent detail when making your case, but there comes a point where the discussion moves from debating the merit of a run with a view to Cheltenham, to just arguing over who is right. The tone associated with the latter is not helpful and demonstrated well by the above post.

RPR's are far too subjective for a lengthy debate about a 4 point RPR differential from a race at Southwell. I didn't tell you to shut up, I simply said move on. These exchanges add no value to the forum. I simply agreed with Odin. You're arguing again and its tiresome.

 

[Odin]

AaronLad I don't know the horses Calico beat in his previous race so I can't counter your feeling that he had a low RPR for his win other than looking at the RP comments and seeing that he made all. I've no doubt he's better than a 120-odd horse so if he makes all and jumps well, he's likely to have taken the lesser horses out of their comfort zone and that may have exaggerated his performance in that class. Naturally, his performance against Jonbon was good - my point is that it's a stretch to say Jonbon ran to about the level of last year's Arkle winner in Saturday's race. I'd have him closer to an average winner (around mid 150s, I'd reluctantly accept matching the 157 he got for beating Monmiral even thought that's questionable as well as Monmiral has stunk the place out this year).

In terms of Calico performance (and Jonbon for that matter), we'd be having a different conversation imo if he'd winged the last down the back straight - but he didn't and from watching the race again, I'm fairly certain Harry knew the game was up then and only gave him a token reminder after the last fence. This again reinforces my view that he can't have run that much better than his best - whatever his best actually was.

And just on the being proven wrong bit - I don't think this race has any real bearing on JBs ability to win the Arkle, nor Calico's to win a decent handicap (until the handicapper agrees with you and raises him a stone for it). I think JB is clearly a Grade 1 Novice Chaser, whether he wins at one of the big festivals or not. That doesn't mean Saturday's performance was as good as that so I don't think it's fair to say I've been proven wrong if one of them wins next time out. I also don't think you've been proven wrong in that regard if they don't.

 

[AaronLad]

AaronLad absolutely no need to be swearing at folk. We all have differences & get passionate but let’s not resort to that….

(notice you’ve since delated it but the above still stands)

which is why i deleted sir :applause:

 

[AaronLad]

AaronLad I don't know the horses Calico beat in his previous race so I can't counter your feeling that he had a low RPR for his win other than looking at the RP comments and seeing that he made all. I've no doubt he's better than a 120-odd horse so if he makes all and jumps well, he's likely to have taken the lesser horses out of their comfort zone and that may have exaggerated his performance in that class. Naturally, his performance against Jonbon was good - my point is that it's a stretch to say Jonbon ran to about the level of last year's Arkle winner in Saturday's race. I'd have him closer to an average winner (around mid 150s, I'd reluctantly accept matching the 157 he got for beating Monmiral even thought that's questionable as well as Monmiral has stunk the place out this year).

In terms of Calico performance (and Jonbon for that matter), we'd be having a different conversation imo if he'd winged the last down the back straight - but he didn't and from watching the race again, I'm fairly certain Harry knew the game was up then and only gave him a token reminder after the last fence. This again reinforces my view that he can't have run that much better than his best - whatever his best actually was.

And just on the being proven wrong bit - I don't think this race has any real bearing on JBs ability to win the Arkle, nor Calico's to win a decent handicap (until the handicapper agrees with you and raises him a stone for it). I think JB is clearly a Grade 1 Novice Chaser, whether he wins at one of the big festivals or not. That doesn't mean Saturday's performance was as good as that so I don't think it's fair to say I've been proven wrong if one of them wins next time out. I also don't think you've been proven wrong in that regard if they don't.

Yeah I didn't really mean proven wrong as such that you don't think jonbon is a grade 1 chaser, more that you don't think calico could be a stone better than his 136 rating.
He's been given a ts rating the same as edwardstone for last years kingmaker, all the more impressive for a 2 horse race.
oh and to be clear i'm certainly not arguing with you :encouragement:

 

[robith]

who do you think you are to tell me what i can talk about? are you Kevloaf ?
because you can't answer something? i cant talk about it.
i said 141 minimum.

He did counter it well, but wasn't spot on imo. but was in yours.
when i ask you to explain a blatantly low rpr for a horse who he is questioning the ability of you get like that.
I'd rather you ignore me. than tell me to shut up.

this is a cheltenham festival forum, and you want me to stop talking about a horse who has a great shout at winning a race there?

AL, I love that you bring an alternative view on form - but you have to work on your tone and not taking things so personally. A few times you've gone off the deep end, and there's really no need