2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[charlie]

Have you looked at the horse he beat yesterday? properly?

No. On first glance he's an ex German flat rat who has won once in eleven starts and had a sliding hurdles mark before looking a sightly better chaser.

Feel free to make the case - make sure you do it properly though

 

[Benjy23]

Never said that was a pre race thought

but standing there watching the race very much thought haddex des obeaux would've won given how much trouble calico caused jonbon

​​​​​​​he'd never beat jonbon at his best but the jonbon that turned up today he surely would've

I get what your saying but even with one more runner (HDO) it'd probably be a completely different race.

The EF backers going in hard on Jonbon is fun to read! (Not directed at you FF)

 

[AaronLad]

No. On first glance he's an ex German flat rat who has won once in eleven starts and had a sliding hurdles mark before looking a sightly better chaser.

Feel free to make the case - make sure you do it properly though

In his novice hurdle season, he finished a 3/4l 2nd to cape gentleman in the grade 2 dovecote at kempton.
He also ran in the scottish champion hurdle handicap, where he finished 4th splitting, tommy's oscar who he was giving 1lb and glory and fortune who he was giving 9lb, both of these became 150 hurdlers the next season.
That race was won by milkwood who would later that season go on to contest the galway hurdle where he finished 2nd, cape gentleman finished 3rd in that race they were beten by saldier.
So from his novice hurdle season it's easy to see he ran some good races against some good opposition.

Clearly he has since had problems and very patchy form. but there have been glimpses of the promise shown as a novice hurdler, all without cheekpieces.
His 2nd place at cheltenham in a hurdle race, on his 1st run of the season.
his 2nd place to datsalritegino who ran off 129 and is now up to 141.
Both runs without cheekpieces.
since cheekpieces it's hard to argue he hasn't produced 2 145+ performances.
The 137 given for his demolition at southwell is low imo, that was a fast time that day and he backed it up yesterday with an even faster time.

 

[Quevega]

Harry Skelton gambled down the back by increasing the pace very sharply to catch Jonbon out and it very nearly worked. If he didn't make the mistake at the last one down the back he could have kicked on even further. Fair play to Harry, at least he tried to get him beat instead of just jogging around with him. I wouldn't be too worried if I was a Jonbon backer. Often these two horse races turn into a bit of cat and mouse, they're pretty muddling and hard to mark.

What I would say though.. his jumping went a little when finding himself behind and that would be a slight worry when facing the likes of Dysart Dynamo and El Fab.

This is pretty much it I reckon.
A really refreshing ride from Skelton who knows the layout really well.
All the talk of ratings and stuff is mute really.
Jonbon did well to get back, and simply showed he's not at the level of previous Henderson 2 milers. IMO.
But still good enough to have a chance in the arkle.
It won't have gone unnoticed at Closutton though, and Willie could choose to run 4 or 5 if he wanted. Probably just 2 or 3 though.
Jonbon is clearly not a Mighty Potter.

 

[jrjr]

I wonder if the frailties exposed in Jonbon’s performance yesterday might impact on Joseph’s plans for Banbridge. DD / Jonbon look beatable, one or two mistakes from EF and Banbridge would be right there, staying on up the hill.

Has been beaten by both El Fab and Mighty Potter. Which would he fancy his chances more against in a rematch? He knows Banbridge is tried and tested over a 2m chase on the Old course.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Just watched it again.
If ever their was a case of watching on mute, this was it.
Nick Luck and Graham Cunningham!!
Deep deep trouble!! thought he might get pulled up!!!etc etc
Hilarious stuff!!
Think they need to watch again as well.

 

[Exar Essay]

Just watched it again.
If ever their was a case of watching on mute, this was it.
Nick Luck and Graham Cunningham!!
Deep deep trouble!! thought he might get pulled up!!!etc etc
Hilarious stuff!!
Think they need to watch again as well.

You’ve honestly watched that back and not thought he’s in big trouble just before Calico makes his mistake?

 

[Geegees]

Thought I would start by saying I don’t have a penny on any horse in this race antepost so then it wouldn’t be wallet swaying opinion.

Everyone knows a 2 horse racing is a completely different type of race regardless of the opposition so ratings can’t be taken literally. Calico looks to have run above his current market and Jonbon ran below.

Jonbon did jump slightly right throughout but in most parts looked to be fairly quick and nimble over fences at Warwick which are known to test technique. Looked back at Jonbon previously and this looks to be the first time he has done this so hopefully something they can iron out. 2 more extra fences in the Cheltenham race which suggest it plays in Jonbon hands vs El Fab.

I think people are excluding the ride by Skelton, the ride on Jonbon was expected to be dictate pace, steady ride round but going a decent clip to get some experience in and ping the fences which happened during the first half of the race. Having that spanner thrown in the works and the pace being set alight then horse or sporting competitor is going to take abit of time to adjust, I would compare this to Mo Farah during his running in the olympics where he would just sit, sit, sit then suddenly put the after burners on and say catch me if you can… he also gets a few lengths head start as he was prepared for it to happen, no one else was and he had been preparing for it for some time during the race. Jonbon did take some time and Calico did make a mistake which impacted the whole plan and that’s a shame as it would have told us even more but Jonbon did after a couple of jumps nuckle down and try to put up a fight. Also noting that Calico pinged everyone one of them fences apart from the mistake like a champion chase horse which put Jonbon under even more pressure.

jonbon due to the colours, breeding and press coverage is lower than he should be and the price staying stable suggests not too many have got involved post race due to it being disappointing but I also don’t think 5/6’s would have stayed around long either.

Do agree with the comment regarding banbridge and they seriously have to be considering the race now.

 

[Zachx02]

Just watched it again.
If ever their was a case of watching on mute, this was it.
Nick Luck and Graham Cunningham!!
Deep deep trouble!! thought he might get pulled up!!!etc etc
Hilarious stuff!!
Think they need to watch again as well.

Seriously? Without the commentary and if I didn't know who the horse was I'd think he would be in very big danger and he traded at 3s on the exchange to show that

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Seriously? Without the commentary and if I didn't know who the horse was I'd think he would be in very big danger and he traded at 3s on the exchange to show that

Yep, absolutely seriously.
Did Skelton surprise us and put J under pressure? Yes he did.
Did J look in deep deep trouble or look like being pulled up?
Absolutely not imo.
Did AC’s body language suggest any of that? Not that I saw.
He looked calm and composed and the horse responded really well to a bit of pressure.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

You’ve honestly watched that back and not thought he’s in big trouble just before Calico makes his mistake?

Nope, watched it twice this morning.
Put under a bit of Pressure and taken by surprise , yes.
Big trouble, no.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Seriously? Without the commentary and if I didn't know who the horse was I'd think he would be in very big danger and he traded at 3s on the exchange to show that

Wish I had seen the 3’s!!
Maybe I need to have Betfair open more often when watching

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Thought I would start by saying I don’t have a penny on any horse in this race antepost so then it wouldn’t be wallet swaying opinion.

Everyone knows a 2 horse racing is a completely different type of race regardless of the opposition so ratings can’t be taken literally. Calico looks to have run above his current market and Jonbon ran below.

Jonbon did jump slightly right throughout but in most parts looked to be fairly quick and nimble over fences at Warwick which are known to test technique. Looked back at Jonbon previously and this looks to be the first time he has done this so hopefully something they can iron out. 2 more extra fences in the Cheltenham race which suggest it plays in Jonbon hands vs El Fab.

I think people are excluding the ride by Skelton, the ride on Jonbon was expected to be dictate pace, steady ride round but going a decent clip to get some experience in and ping the fences which happened during the first half of the race. Having that spanner thrown in the works and the pace being set alight then horse or sporting competitor is going to take abit of time to adjust, I would compare this to Mo Farah during his running in the olympics where he would just sit, sit, sit then suddenly put the after burners on and say catch me if you can… he also gets a few lengths head start as he was prepared for it to happen, no one else was and he had been preparing for it for some time during the race. Jonbon did take some time and Calico did make a mistake which impacted the whole plan and that’s a shame as it would have told us even more but Jonbon did after a couple of jumps nuckle down and try to put up a fight. Also noting that Calico pinged everyone one of them fences apart from the mistake like a champion chase horse which put Jonbon under even more pressure.

jonbon due to the colours, breeding and press coverage is lower than he should be and the price staying stable suggests not too many have got involved post race due to it being disappointing but I also don’t think 5/6’s would have stayed around long either.

Do agree with the comment regarding banbridge and they seriously have to be considering the race now.

Good post that, very well put.
Not much to argue with there imo

 

[Istabraq]

Wish I had seen the 3’s!!
Maybe I need to have Betfair open more often when watching

Pointless unless you're there.
The feed is on a 5 sec delay and there's a 5 sec delay in processing your bet, 10+ seconds after he looked in trouble and was 3/1 the leader blundered and Jonbon would have been into favourite again.
In running really is only an option if you're watching live, otherwise you have to accept that someone is way ahead of you...

 

[Kevloaf]

Never said that was a pre race thought

but standing there watching the race very much thought haddex des obeaux would've won given how much trouble calico caused jonbon

​​​​​​​he'd never beat jonbon at his best but the jonbon that turned up today he surely would've

Ah I see, gotcha :encouragement:

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Pointless unless you're there.
The feed is on a 5 sec delay and there's a 5 sec delay in processing your bet, 10+ seconds after he looked in trouble and was 3/1 the leader blundered and Jonbon would have been into favourite again.
In running really is only an option if you're watching live, otherwise you have to accept that someone is way ahead of you...

Cheers, no point indeed then

 

[Benjy23]

9/4 Jonbon in the Hills enhanced eye catchers section...

It'll be an interest market this race. Jonbon obviously got the big reputation and connections himself to be fair. But El Fab has the better chase form and Mullins has a strong hand in the Supreme (as usual), so a winner there could see El Fab (and DD) backed in on the day.

 

[Silverbirch]

Do I have a penny on Jonbon, no.
Was it a meh run, yes.
As a backer of other arkle horses, was I encouraged, yes.
Was I concerned at how well he stuck at it and still won, yes.

Nothings changed basically and status bloody quo for me :cheerful:
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[Eggs]

….I had two long-standing bets on Jonbon but cashed one after the race for profit. Quite happy to have done that.

 

[Lobos]

Bookies are very clever. Many punters follow favs like sheep. Plenty will have already had shed loads on Bon Jovi. Making El Fab fav they know the sheep will pump into him now and naturally balance the books . Easy.